We’ve had a ton of credible threats go by the wayside. I saw crocuses in January. I’ve never seen that when we didn’t end with below normal snow...not once. Such is life. At least it’s easy to walk around....
I’d take the H5 look and run. 2M temperatures on ensembles 11-15 are notoriously poorly modeled. Yes we have to contend with the SE ridge but hopefully impulses will be timed ok.