Carvers Gap

We had several nearly stationary t-storms this evening over several areas of TRI.

Looks like a cutoff low rolling through next weekend, and maybe one more after that. Hopefully, that ends the heat.

My eye spies a very slightly-ish positive PDO. Get those warm SSTs along the NE PAC coastline, and we are in business.

Real feel here is 89. Humidity is low thankfully. Temps in the shade aren’t bad. Mornings aren’t bad.

Summer's last gasp coming up this weekend and next week? I think so. LR ext modeling and general ensembles depict BN heights dropping into the Aleutians. That should pop a ridge out West, and goodbye summer heat. But before we get there, it is gonna get HOT. Early October should feature a full blown transition to generally normal to BN temps.

The 30mb QBO has fallen to -22.28 and still dropping. I think it levels off(hits the bottom of the parabola) sometime during December or January. That likely promotes chances for some HL blocking episodes. I don't see that in modeling yet, but that is more of a mid-Nov to late Dec thought anyway.

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks. We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count. The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought. That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide. We will see. Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer. Let's hope that is wrong!

Latest seasonals CANSIPS/Euro are showing a nasty trend towards a juiced SER. I think west of the Apps, we still have our chances. It is almost like modeling is overdoing the Nina. Plenty of time for things to change. The daily CFS seasonal is decent until December.

What are you sitting at for the day?(total)

Knoxville south of I40-75 is on the rain train.

I know exactly where that is! Interestingly, one of my kiddos was just across the street from there about an hour ago. We just finished w/ our second line of storms here in Kingsport. Fortunately, we have been spared the really severe stuff. I did see some reports out of South Knoxville of half dollar size hail - but that is second hand information by me.

***warning has expired*** Tornado warning posted for Oak Ridge and Oliver springs. Box is heading eastward.

I never like going into winter with a drought(if one wants a snowy winter). We are getting more rain this morning, and it is forecast agains this weekend. I mean I can remember recent fall months where we received less than 0.2" of rain at my house total for a 30d timeframe. So, this is welcome.

Good perspective. Yes, the western half of the forum is very dry. This late summer and early fall season has kind of flipped from the recent decadal patterns for the forum area. This is the first time in a very long time that July/August rains have returned to an area where they used to be common(E TN). This recent stretch of La Ninas has thrown a wrench into what used to be NE TN's rainiest month - but not this year.

We had rain all morning. It lasted for 6-7 hours. Honestly, this is not the normal pattern that we are experiencing when compared to the last decade or so with extended summer. Our daytime highs for August finished -3F BN. We hit 90F only twice which is well below normal. We were well AN on rainfall. With the exception of Friday, that pattern appears to continue w/ maybe a ridge rolling through from time to time. The leaves here have started changing. There are some trees behind the bank at the YMCA which are fully red. Now, that isn't the norm, but man. Most of the trees along the river are turning yellow, but maples are definitely starting to show color. That fits with the earlier than normal bird migration. I can attest to the earlier migration as the hawks appeared here about two weeks earlier than last last year - they migrate through here as it is is a flyway. I have seen several in the past couple of weeks. They like my street for whatever reason. Of note, leaf changes have started early here during the past several years - only to pause during September. I would guess right now that the leaves are going to peak 7-14 days early this year when compared to last year, and maybe 5-7 days quicker than the norm. I noticed lots of leaves on the paths which I run on - again, earlier than normal. A prolonged period of warm and dry will pause that process a bit. Most leaves change due to the length of day, but cold mornings will accelerate that change or delay it. The good thing about all of this is that we are unlikely to have to erase large anomalies of heat over NA, and we should have normal to AN ground moisture (comparative to fall) in our region. That soil moisture content alone could allow for cooler temp intrusions earlier in the season. I have to think some part of November and December is gonna be really cold against the norms. Fingers crossed. @Holston_River_Rambler, is gonna have to provide a wooly worm update, or other(elk?) seasonal tells.

The first NCAA football weekend of the year. This fall appears to be beginning at or below normal for temps. I am sure we will have some warmer temps as fall progresses, but what a great way to start it. Carry on

Looks like we may do this all over again in about 8-9 days if modeling is correct. Bout time for a fall thread!

Update, at 7:20AM we indeed tied the record low of 46F at TRI. The original mark was set in 1945. Setting record lows at that time of day isn't uncommon as it is usually coldest right before the sun rises.

Is this one of those winters where we might not have to erase massive AN temperature anomalies across the North American continent before it can get cold? It sure is starting to look like that if LR ext and seasonal modeling is correct.

Mt Leconte hit 38 this morning which is its coldest reading for Aug 27th since records have been kept there beginning in 1988.

Just missed the record low of 46. So far, looks like 48 will be the lowest that we drop at TRI. Update....The coldest WxUnderground station that I can find currently is 47 in KPT at the moment w/ TRI having risen a couple of degrees to 50. On a side note, bird migrations from the north have started early....

Downright chilly outside right now. It was kind of a shock given it is still August. I am gonna have to dig a jacket out of the closet in the morning.

Bout time for a Fall thread. It sure looks like the summer time pattern is starting to break down a bit early compared to recent years. Cold fronts could be getting further south than recent years if modeling is to be believed. And they are lined up one after another. I certainly don't think we have seen the last of the summer heat, but the sustained heat may well be over by Labor Day - ie weeks on end of high temps and humidity.

If you want a really good illustration of what happens when there is no gap in a mountain range, then the Bitterroot Valley is your huckleberry. Take some time and look at the annual snow totals for Hamilton and also at their winter temps. Then, look at Missoula's. Different worlds and only about 30mins apart. We nearly moved here, so I had done a lot of research about the valley. They used to grow apples in that valley. It is a true banana belt. The downlsope winds keep it warm for most of the winter. There are few ways for cold air masses to get south into the valley. Just of this area gets bitterly cold during winter. The eastern TN Valley is similar to this in many ways.

That also means the airport deals with downslope winds that Knoxville and western burbs don't see nearly as much.