Carvers Gap

The 12z Euro essentially has an anafront at the end of its run. The front isn't as north/south as we would want it, but it is good that is still showing. I think we see incredible return flow in front of it - likely record highs and severe. Then that baby pushes through and things freeze solid. Let's see if that hypothesis holds.

Both the 12z RGEM and Euro(see Boone commit above) have a system next weekend. By default the CMC has it as well. Looks like a time of day type of deal. Plenty of northern stream energy after that. I suspect modeling is too quick with exiting the cold eastern pattern. I do think a ridge rolls through though, and a stout one at that. I also think an anafront is still on the table.

I don't have any thunder in the mountains, but I am bringing this to the table... The Madden Julian Oscillation has an odd resemblance to the Death Star.

Well now, that is a proper 12z suite incoming.

Let's see if the GFS holds on to this ana front idea. It likely won't be there each time, but that is now 2 of the last 3 runs(18z and now 6z). If I remember correctly, it has a knack for that - I cold be wrong. I do think there will be some sort of warm-up embedded in all of this. It looks like mid-month is when it is most likely. Right now, I just think modeling is not recognizing the MJO very well at all. That is why I want to look at the plots this morning. Until the MJO moves to the right side...I have my doubts about any sustained warmup. Even the 0z Euro has an anafront of sorts at the end of its run w/ severe in front of it(not uncommon in my experience).

The 6z GFS is frigid late in its run. Going to be interesting to look at MJO plots this morning.

You want wild? The 18z AIFS has mid 60s all they way into Iowa at the same hour as above. Models are ALL OVER THE PLACE this evening. That is a pretty good sign that cold is coming into the Lower 48. Temps differences are almost 70 degrees in some places between the 18z GFS and AIFS. And at 360, that isn't completely unexpected, but it is wild to look at. I think we have cold through mid month, and then paths diverge. I do think we "could" see some strong cold fronts, maybe sever weather, and possible frozen events.

And yes, that is an anafront - textbook.

Weather models amaze me. What a front. These are the real feel and anomaly maps from the 18z GFS at 360. In no way shape or form am I saying this going to come to pass on this exact day. However, I do think an extreme front is on the table as is record heat by mid month. We could see both...I hope not on the same day. But we could see some extremes.

Thanks for the heads up. I prob should look at the strat more. Generally, I just wanted it jostled and not spinning in a tight spiral. That would make sense given that this has occurred during recent Nina episodes. That would set the stage or cold by mid January. This could be a crazy winter.

The GFS is a an outlier at this point but has come around some today. It was an extreme outlier yesterday. I mean eventually it will be right when the MJO finally rotates around. A broke clock…

The 12z Euro is northern stream dominant after Dec 5 w/ like (3) systems coming through. Rain/snow mix for the valley. Nice look.

The 18z ICON is flirting with it as well for NE TN/SW VA. Time of day is huge. If that comes in over night, it could be a mess.

The 18z RGEM is threatening to bring frozen precip into the forum area around Dec 5th. Sneaky system...a little bit of ZR can wreck total havoc.

The biggest things is getting into climatology that supports snow in the valleys. It is well within precedent to snow, but the likelihood is just lower until we hit mid-December. This is a good pattern, but just a bit too early in the season as the cold just isn't as deep.

Some of these suppressed systems in the medium range...I would not be surprised to see those trend to snow in our area. Nice looking pattern with ample cold in the Ohio Valley. Also, notice how this time frame has trended from a SER to a VERY cold time frame just to our north.

Some decent trends for light snow in your back yard at 12z.

Yeah, man. It was ice skating will jogging this morning. The frost was like black ice in shady areas.

I think that is about right for TRI. It was basically a seasonal month for us. I did check several stations which weren't near big airports, and some of those stations had higher departures. I think higher elevations and folks w/ slightly northern latitudes were slightly cooler. During 3-4 consecutive mornings recently we had very heavy fog which elevated temps above morning norms. The final average for TRI is 0.8F. It came out this morning. We were about 1" BN for precip. Highs were slightly AN and lows were slightly BN(which probably runs against my fog theory!). That does kind of fit a slightly drier month than normal - like a desert in some ways.

TRI will finish the month of November ~roughly +0.9F above normal. It was a wild month with wild rides. The highest high temp for the month was 71F. Four days later the high was 38F! The month featured a few days where wind chills were in the teens during the day. I have one tree which normally keeps its leaves until late December. It's leaves are all gone now - thankfully! The cold snaps and wind did the trick. We did manage about 0.5" of snow mid-month. I suspect our winter will mirror this pattern - extremes!

I will take either background state as long as it is weak - Nino or Nina. It seems like the last few winters have had a dominant ENSO state, but also strong elements of the opposite background state. I think that is probably due there not being a strong difference between the colder Nina water and the warmer water around it -> What is the word for that? In other words, the lack of sharp differences creates kind of a muted ENSO effect. Is the IO still slated to be quiet?

Just looking through modeling and catching up some(yes, I was at that abomination of a ball game yesterday...but still enjoyed being with my family!), there are some really close calls in the medium range. IF modeling is incorrect about the strength of the cold incoming, areas north of I40 could see some frozen precip. This is something that will have to monitored with each event. Seems like we have a Gulf system in that window where systems are lost. Let's see if it reappears.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 1222 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052- 054-055-010600- /O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0003.251202T0000Z-251202T1200Z/ Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-St. Francis-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson- Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison- Henderson-Decatur- Including the cities of Wynne, Corning, Camden, Forrest City, Milan, Blytheville, Piggott, West Memphis, Huntingdon, Lexington, Humboldt, Brownsville, Caruthersville, Covington, Decaturville, Paris, Paragould, Union City, Tiptonville, Jackson, Harrisburg, Martin, Parsons, Jonesboro, Ripley TN, Dyersburg, Alamo, Dresden, and Kennett 1222 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations less than one inch and ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Winter Weather Advisories posted for western areas of the forum, specifically NW TN, and eastern Arkansas.

I think the MJO is correcting into colder phases with maybe a loop back into 7. The Euro/EPS/EMON has been decent of late in predicting the next plot. I suspect models and ensembles will continue to correct to a colder look. And man, do you all remember ColdRain on the old SE forum. This was his type of day IMBY. RealFeels at 40F w/ light drizzle falling. Scuzzy weather. I like it, but it isn't for everyone.