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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Ok, who is posting the map?!
  2. Carvers Gap
    Lots of volatility moving forward. A colder pattern looks in place through just before Christmas, then it warms, and then????? I think we see a fairly quick return to cold during January. I don't know that the base pattern for winter has show itself. Weak La Nina winters tend to have some warm interludes with very sharp cold shots. If those cold shots time with precip, we could be in business during portions of Jan and early Feb.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is cooking something up around 180.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think operational modeling is under-doing d8-16 temps.
  5. Carvers Gap
    For now, I am sticking with ensembles in the d7-16 range. Operational modeling has trended warmer for the past couple of days. Wild swings like that tend to signal very cold air beginning to work its way into the pattern. That type of low level, Arctic air wrecks complete havoc on modeling. Ensembles OTH are quite cold with little change to the EPO ridge and downstream EC trough. I thought I would add the graphic below just for kicks and giggles. This is the Euro control from the Weeklies run this afternoon. It probably doesn't have much(if any) skill. But what is interesting is that if North America gets that cold, the MJO won't matter nearly as much. It will simply mean "less cold" as it goes through warm phases, i.e. just different variations of cold. One final note, modeling will often be too quick with cold, and then bring the hammer later. The above map shows "what could" happen as we see a very La Nina temp structure for North America, but cold just overwhelms the pattern. It has been a long time since we have seen cold that encompassing over NA. Again, it is just an example of one pathway that the weather could take. There are many, many options on the table for that timeframe, especially at this range.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I concur.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Good info. JB says the MJO warm tax will have to get paid after Dec 20. If the Niña comes to pass, prob more cold finds its way here per JB. Typical Nina winters have periods of warm accentuated by severe cold.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the info on the AIFS. I have been meaning to ask how good it is. I never know what to think of it. It has a little bit of DGEX in it, but it has been really decent during the recent weeks I have been following it - I really have just started to use it.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z ECMWF AIFS is picking up on a really cold shot around the Dec 8-10. That would be a second very cold shot in addition to the Dec 2-6 timeframe. The CPC maps this afternoon are dark purple for temps for this area. Apparent temps during the second cold shot are showing up in the single digits for valleys and below zero for mountains. I would almost think and ana front is probably going to be embedded within future models runs at some point. That cold means business.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Pretty clear signal in LR ext models of the ridge retrograding into the Aleutians, ridge tucking into the Mountain West, and SER establishing around the first week of January. Now, that is a LONG way out there. However, that fits climatology and fits the recent Nina winters. I have my suspicions as to whether that can hold long term. It is likely a January thaw with winter returning later that month. This pattern coming up has an almost extreme EPO ridge, and that is not sustainable as a long term pattern. The ridges and troughs need to be flatter. JB mentioned today that there should be some upwelling of cooler water in the ENSO regions which should bring La Nina into play. We want that. We don't want a Nada which is "dud winter territory" for this area. If we can get the weak La Nina, I think we see more cold later in winter. For now, it looks like cold through roughly December 20th(give or take 3-4 days), then seasonal as the trough retrogrades, then a return flow from the GOM due to incoming HP, and then a great big question mark. So, I think we have a pretty good idea of cold duration now. I think!
  11. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro AIFS set to go boom...that would make a lot of folks happy who have been watching the rest of us have fun for several winters.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The seasonal CFSv2 from this morning...EPO and AO driven it appears to me.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. And that is what I was thinking that might be....it is all over the place. That means IMHO that there is above normal uncertainty for this winter. I "think" we probably can get rid of the warm Decembers...at least through Christmas anyway. After Christmas, maybe a switch to warm pattern or a brief warm-up. I can't tell at this range. It is interesting that we aren't seeing a lot o 2000s analogs with that, and that is interesting. Either they try to factor out recency bias with their analogs, or there is a thought process that this winter is not fitting recent analogs. I don't know the answer to that. The potentially cold start reminds me of 09-10, but I don't think it matches the ENSO state. I will post the CFSv2 from this morning(likely suffering from feedback for Jan-Feb), and if it isn't actually suffering from feedback...that is not like many 2000s winters. Maybe 14-15? Maybe 09-10? Could be something and could be nothing. The CFSv2 is a flavor of the month model for me....changes a ton. However, American modeling does well enough at very long range that I do pay attention, especially during early winter.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Sorry. I should have specified the non ‘89 winters. I was at UT at the time. We missed on a massive snowstorm.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Here are the d8-14 analogs for today from CPC: 19561129 19851221 19881208 20081130 19581212 20021128 19891221 19561124 19761124 19881213 Any thoughts on these?
  16. Carvers Gap
    Still very cold ensembles. The 12z GEPS is very cold. It makes me nervous, because it often catches the cold before other ensembles. If that verifies, we could be looking at severe cold incoming. The 12z Euro and CMC both at varying times have incoming winter storms. It is possible that the pattern is dry as the EPO ridge is so, so tall. That combination often forces us to rely on northwest flow events. Either way, buckle up. Wild pattern looks to be on tap if you like winter. I tend to think the Euro/CMC model group(once they "see" the cold) are formidable. The Euro was crazy, crazy cold at the end of its run. I am not so sure that isn't record breaking. I haven't looked.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Still not a lot of changes to earlier thinking. If anything the 500 maps of all three major ensembles continue to advertise a very strong EPO. I have to think that breaks down at some point, but modeling has it through d16. Even though Nina is still technically a Nada...The potential cold start to winter is very classic Nina climatology. It does look like the NAO is trying to fire. That is not surprising given that it has been more active during winter after going a couple of decades without much activity.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Good thread. I may read some more of his ideas tonight. Good share!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Day 8-14 CPC analogs from yesterday. Triple weighted '89. Interesting to see an 09-10 analog show up in there - not a La Nina nor a La Nada analog, but a great winter nonetheless. I would be interested to learn how that made its way into that analog set. 19891218 19631213 19581210 19891213 19551129 19891208 19561201 19581205 20091208 19761202
  20. Carvers Gap
    Still a little bit of meat left on the summer/fall thread bone. Blizzard warnings are posted in West Virginia. We don't see that very often during November. Winter has arrived.
  21. Carvers Gap
    But ya'll, I love this kind of weather. It is cold, windy, and spitting snow. After two and half extra months of summer, glad the switch finally flipped.
  22. Carvers Gap
    We ended up from a dusting to a 1/2" of snow. I drove through almost convective bands last night and this morning. Definitely a nice event to start the season.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Nina climatology often supports a cold end to November and cold December. Then, it warms with diminishing chances for cold in the western forum areas. That is the bulk of climatology. However, there is a group of analogs for weak La Nina years which produce very cold winters for almost all of the forum areas. They make-up about 1/3 of weak La Nina analogs and most of those years are the benchmark winters for the Tennessee Valley. I am not saying those are in play right now, but I can't rule it out. I suspect modeling is falsely perpetuating the eastern trough past Christmas, but there is is about a 1/3 chance that this winter could be "base cold." To quote Ben Kenobi, "Now that is a term I haven't heard in a long, long time." It should be noted that the collapse(or lack of occurrence at all) of the La Nina was poorly forecasted. ENSO forecasting at range can be bust city. So, with the ENSO state being a bust for this winter...that opens the door every so slightly for a colder winter due to weak La Nina climatology coming into play. Again, 1/3 is the ratio to remember. Many of us have noted that we are a bit uneasy about this winter's forecast, because those analogs are the opposite of the other 2/3.
  24. Carvers Gap
    And this is why January gives me great pause. This is from my winter forecast. I haven't looked, but I bet the PDO this go around is less optimal. However, this is part of the reason that I am less confident than I have been the past two winters.....Again, I lean warm for January, but there is precedent for a much different outcome. I am going to go ahead and add these. And I am far, far deeper into this than intended...Sorry, this is kind of a "stream of thought" post, and maybe not as scientific as it should be. I also want to add 16-17 into the mix at it was a first year La Nina and should be weighted equally or more to 17-18. But here is why I am far less confident this winter. See the 94-95 moderate Nino listed in the graphic at the very bottom of this post. This past winter reminded me of that type of winter - blah and not a lot of chances. Now, what came after 94-95? The winter that shall not be named, because I just won't invoke a winter that is a benchmark winter of my lifetime, and it was true winter. It was a weak La Nina following a moderate El Nino. It is also a winter that maybe doesn't fit the current warm basin look of the Pac which is why I haven't used it. That said, it might deserve some weight though I haven't given it any. Just beware.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Just for kicks and giggles. This is the CFSv2 seasonal control run for January. Take a look at the cold analog package for January in the winter spec thread...and look at this.
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