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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Carvers Gap replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Love it...Even if it doesn't work out, a winter thread in November is always a bonus! Hey, if we can get a winter thread in April early next spring...that would give us six months of tracking! My expectations are low on this one. I just want to see some snow showers. Any accumulation is a total bonus this early, but I do like looking at snow accumulation maps though! I may have to put in The Day After Tomorrow to get me fired up!!! I like that movie, not going to lie. My other favorite weather movies are Twister, 2012(more geology), and pretty much any Christmas movie with snow in it. Christmas Vacation and Home Alone are pretty much awesome. Yeah, I am a weather geek and I just can't help it. In for later! Good luck to everyone on getting some early season snow. Have to think folks about 2,000' are sitting pretty good on this one. -
TRI is a whopping -7F below normal for the first nine days of November. November's start is nearly a polar(like that?LOL) opposite of October's. I mean I still leave the house without a coat, because I still assume it is gonna be 90+ during the day. Pretty sure this is the earliest that I have not had to mow...but just mow it now to knock down the tops of a few fast growing patches of grass and to pick up leaves. The heat pretty much wiped out my yard...then the cold went off the top rope and ended its meager hopes of returning to form.
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Is the weenie reaction emoji new(button you click to like a post)? Maybe I have just missed it. That should be fun. LOL.
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Agree that colors pretty much changed in unison...a true testament to the duration and strength of the warm anomalies and then accompanied by a quick switch to seasonal and then below. I don't think it was much cooler at elevation. That said, our leaf change up here was super quick for maples, locusts, sweet gum, sycamore. The oaks are basically are way behind. So, it is almost like a two tier change here, and it sort of has been lately anyway. The rain and wind knocked the leaves down from the trees that had just changed...and left the oaks in tact. Also agree that fall actually turned out to be quite nice at lower elevations from a color standpoint. The wet spring helped, and I do think the recent rains helped. And rainy days IMHO are great days to photograph the leaf change. The colors are just richer. Today is beautiful. Temps are chilly. The wind chimes are singing. Going to be super cold tonight - compared to what we have been used to. I think our band is changing-up its routine as playing when it is below freezing is super tough on the instruments...especially the competition stuff. These HS band don't have the budgets of those northern marching bands who can make sure that they have good, cold weather instruments ...and instruments for the rains. A good example, is that one needs a plastic clarinet for the rain and wood for concert. The brass(while being played and warm air is in the instruments) also sweats similarly to a Coke bottle that has just come out of the fridge. . It has been a great marching season. Lots of great stories. The national championships are this weekend in Indianapolis. Our kids are heading to the Rose Bowl parade instead, and will not make the trip to Indy(too expensive to do both trips). Was a tough decision since DB won't be able to defend its 3A national title(its first) from last season. However, what a great opportunity to go to Pasadena, and be in that parade. We are really blessed to have so many kids who play in our full band - 388. Just under 20% of the kids in the high school play in the band. Crazy! Plus, DB is in the playoffs this year after a rough couple of seasons. Glad to see them bounce back. They are such an easy team to pull for. In smaller towns in NE TN(and really most areas in the state) high school football is a great community event that brings everyone together. In smaller towns, we don't have changing school zones...so some of these kids are walking on playing fields as fourth and fifth generation athletes or band members.
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Yeah, I think the western and middle Pacific are pretty much going to be AN SSTs for DJF. I figured the eastern regions might warm a bit. Kind of a weird set-up and why an analog package may get beat-up pretty good this winter as many(including you an I) have noted. Hey, the SOI is tanking...not sure what that is going to unleash.
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Looks like 1/2 El Nino and 1/2 La Nina....looks much cooler than I thought it would look. What are the trends on that, Jax?
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Through the first three days of November, TRI is -10.2F below normal.
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Had heavy frost on the garden this AM...I thought my garden fall crops would be fried(which I mentioned in another thread). This afternoon, they looked great! Hardy little rascals.
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Looks like WCYB on their FB page has a couple of photographs of the tornado that went through the far southwest corner of Virginia. Fortunately, that is a very rural area. What a wild weather day it was yesterday. Looks like Roan Mt and Leconte both picked up light accumulations of snow. Just glancing at the webcam, looks like Sugar might have been blowing snow last night...but I could be wrong.
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39 degrees in west Kingsport with wind chills in the lower 30s at best. Truly awesome cold front today - a true howler. Those never get old. Is that a 30 degree temperature swing since later morning? Rain got out of here in time for trick or treating. We built a fire in our portable fire pit in the front yard and roasted marshmallows. LOL. I keep saying it...it is absolutely amazing to look at the range of weather for the month of October. Set the all time record high for like four straight times to begin the month. We had been 33 days with only 0.1" of rain. Today we had severe storms, ~1.25" of rain IMBY, and the event ended as snow for some. Mid 90s on the first day and wind chills in the upper 20s to low 30s and snow to end it. Certainly was not boring, though I don't ever want to see 90s in October again. This is one for the archives.
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LOL. That is hilarious.
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Growing up I had never heard of a downslope wind in this area. Great find. We have our own chinook... Folks that wonder what we talk about during winter storm downsloping events can get a good idea what we deal with from that map. Sometimes I wonder what we called the "warm nose" was actually just a downslope event. Now, obviously the warm nose is its own thing...but sometimes I think it is made worse by a downslope event.
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Just a bunch of wind and rain IMBY. The first day of October and the last day of October are about as polar opposite as one can get in regards to October. LOL. This entire day is October in a micro. Started warm. Gonna end cold.
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We have some posters in that area...hopefully they will post a report.
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@Blue Ridge has some great satellite photos in the severe thread of the downslope. Looks like things were really rolling in Knox Co now. Severe line now headed for NE TN.
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I am going to make a side trip out there to the Sinks. Just too good to pass that up.
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LOL. Pisgah ninja'd me!!! To tag onto his post... Cool little piece of information that JB mentioned this AM. The Peter Sinks in Utah may(still be verified) have hit -46F. That would break the all-time record low for the lower 48 for October I think. Anyway, I did some research. It is a bowl at high elevation(thinking above 9K'). You can literally walk into the inversion and the temp drops 30-40 degrees when the inversion occurs. I had heard of these types of phenomena in Antartica. Basically an indentation in the geography of a very cold area can be significantly colder than its surroundings. I think in Antartica there are little cave like features that have crazy cold temps as the cold just drains into them. I wonder if Heber is near this area? https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/30/arctic-cold-blast-breaks-temperatures-october-utah-wyoming-colorado/4098089002/ edit: Here is the article about the phenomena in Antartica. I had no idea (but it makes sense) that it happened at the latitude of Utah. Makes me think of places like Camp Creek which get such strong winds...real life outliers that just have perfect conditions for extremes. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5888749/The-coldest-place-Earth-chillier-scientists-thought.html
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Weather this AM is gnarly. The weather in this trailer is gnarly as well. The Star Wars theme/score in the middle of this trailer is just sick. I saw the first one in the theaters in 1977. I was super disappointed in the last Star Wars movie. This trailer gives me hope that they will get this one right. The was the last Star Wars full trailer of my time. But wow, what a trailer it is.
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Was a Saturday of close calls. Kansas nearly edged out Texas. The Vols were a botched fourth down play from taking the Tide down to the wire. Hey, having the number one team in the country in a one score game late was a true feat for a team that lost to Georgia State, a game which I will never fully understand.
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Yeah, tough to get a good analog right now. Poor gradients SST(referencing Typhoon Tip) in the Pacific, a raging IOD, Nina sig in the eastern Pac, warm northern Pac...as Jeff noted in the pattern thread, going to be a headache forecasting this winter. I believe Jeff's analog was a root canal - paraphrased a bit on my part. The problem with finding an analog is there are not enough to build confidence with. Throw in record low solar, that odd looking ENSO setup, and a falling QBO...the pool of analogs gets pretty thin. As far as western cold...I tend to think that streak has about run its course. At some point they are going to have a warm winter or two. That said, we may very well be in a cycle where the West gets cold on average for several years. The 90s had many low water years out there. When they had the record drought several years ago, they thought they were locked into that long term. Now, they are getting plenty of rain, snow and cold in the same areas that were frying in the heat. But at some point, the extreme will give way to near average or even below. Sooooo....this winter seems like a real crap shoot. Might very well be that the pattern stays fairly progressive. Seems like recent winters have just been either/or...meaning you either have a big, cold winter or a torch. Might be we get both of each this winter.
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TRI's wx data for the past nineteen days of October. Notably, on October 3rd TRI had a record high temp of 94. Just two weeks later, the high was 60. That impressive 34 degree change definitely challenged the wardrobe of many. Shorts and t-shirsts to hoodies and rain jackets! Five of the last six days have featured BN temps with plentiful rainfall and the first frost of the season on rooftops IMBY.
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Very beneficial rains fell in NE TN yesterday which is a regions that has struggled to get rainfall before last week.
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I saw one of these stations last spring and again over the summer during trips out there. Pretty cool article on cloud seeding in the Salt River Range with the intent to produce more snow that will in turn produce better water years for energy and agricultural purposes. BTW, this guy runs a great blog. I think he used to work in Oklahoma at the storm center. http://blog.starvalleyweather.com/2019/10/14/cloud-seeding-in-star-valley-and-western-wyoming-an-update-2019/
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I thought it was windy today...when I opted to stay under the bridge, I might have understated the winds. Winds were clocked in the 30mph range today in areas of E TN. If you have ever watched the weather roll in over the ridge lines at higher elevations...that is what it looked like. Grabbed this graphic from MRX's FB page...
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I am with you Jed...when I looked out and saw it raining this morning, felt like I was watching it snow(it had become such a rarity). Anyway, looks like wind chills this evening in southwest VA are ranging form the low to upper 30s. Wind chills at TRI are in the low to mid 40s there. Wind is really howling. This is my kind of weather. Friday morning has a mention of patchy frost by MRX for Kingsport as lows dip into the mid 30s. Will be interesting if later this month TRI can approach a record low as many are in the mid 20s. The GFS has been toying with this for several runs - but it has a notable cold bias so we will see. Wouldn't be surprised to even set a record high early next week. Looks like some wild temp swings coming up. That is fall to me...some nice days and some gnarly weather days. I had to stop jogging today and chill out under a bridge as sheets of light rain and drizzle came up the river on about 15 mph winds. Looked like the kind of thing you would normally see at higher elevations. Anyway, I didn't really chicken out by trying to stay drive. I was done walking my route and was waiting for my ride. Just surreal to be roasting a couple of weeks ago and then to be witnessing a scene like that. Wild, but why I like the weather and find it interesting. My neighbor saw me heading out in shorts and a T-shirt and noted that it was probably time to switch to warmer clothes...I was thinking he was likely right as I was standing under that bridge.
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