Carvers Gap

That is certainly your right to have that opinion. All modeling misses. That is like missing a free throw and saying, “Well, all of the next ones are not going in.” I will go back and look, but I believe Cansips was pretty close for Feb last month.

New CANSIPS is out. Here is the look for next winter. @Itryatgolf70, I have also attached the predicted seasonal DJF surface temp map for the Pac basin. Starts east based in Sept and migrates to central basin by December. Huge grains of salt as LR modeling almost always has a very warm bias. So, TIFWIW. Monster SER and Aleutians high are the staple features. The model really doesn't show a typical Nina progression for next fall/winter, but....I would guess some analogs are non-winters. The danger w/ stronger ENSO events is that winter never shows up, and we have been long overdue for a non west of the Apps. May need a whole heard of elk next winter. The Mountain West is set for a great winter next winter. -PDO features prominently. I would guess the compiled, overall DJF look is correct, but the progression of how it arrived there...not right. That progression is critical for how our winter looks here. Summer starts cool and ends hot...but that really isn't earth shattering stuff, right? I need to go back and look at precip.

They are getting hammered on that cam right now.

This is what I am looking at...Listed below are 4 maps. Two are week 4 control runs (GEFS ext, and Euro LR ext), one is a week 3 ensemble (GEFS ext), and the last is week 3 (Euro LR ext control). I have been watching this time frame for several days(prob weeks). Due to "mission fatigue" on the forum, I have held this timeframe a bit closer to the best than normal. However, with the operationals run beginning to hint at this, it is worth noting. Note that Canada is very cold. Certainly, we could get the rugged pulled out from under us. It has occurred at this range just a few weeks ago, but this signal has been very steady and fits with the pattern cycle.

And as a reminder, the 4-6 week pattern cycle window (been warm) closes within the next 10 days. You can see the pattern shake-up on both the GFS and CMC at 12z. Now, I don't claim to know what the next pattern cycle holds. I do suspect that March 10-31 should be more interesting than the last six weeks. I won't rule out cold and wintry weather. The 12z CMC provides an example of where this could lead. The Euro LR ext (control) has been fairly adamant of an anomalous cold shot during the last two weeks of March. That control has been pretty decent this winter and now early spring.

When in doubt, ENSO state and strength generally rule the roost in my experience. Solar max does certainly play a part in the weather. In fact, I believe that volcanism and solar are the two biggest drivers of our weather. I just don't think we understand those cycles very well because as humans we haven't observed them very long at all. Generally, it is pretty tough to find a decent winter where the QBO is not descending or in the negative range. As always, there are exceptions to many weather analog rules. One more interesting piece will be if the PDO does in fact reverse. Generally, I think we are at the beginning of a -NAO cycle during winter, and that will also play a part. The Nino location does play a roll in where the SER will set up shop. But generally a weak Nina means that the east based Nina would still be weak regardless of centering. Lately, it seems the IO is probably as big a driver as the Pacific...maybe bigger. Generally, in order, these are what drive my bigger picture thinking: Decadal indices or teleconnections: 1. AMO (easily the biggest driver IMHO) 2. PDO (very important when the AMO is not in a favorable state as it hasn't been since the late 80s) Seasonal 1. ENSO state and strength 2. MJO...which really is an extension of the IO lately 3. NAO 4. EPO/PNA (3 and 4 flip flop depending on which end of the forum one lives) 5. QBO which is probably related to 3 and 4. 6. When summer ends...extended summer generally causes problems for winter patterns as source regions in NA often don't get cold enough for long enough. 7. Recent seasonal trends(and maybe this should be higher up the list). The TN Valley will go through snow droughts, and when we are in one, nothing works...see many winters during the 90s. For next winter ENSO, PDO, MJO, and NAO/EPO potential will drive my ideas. In general for MBY, I think winter starts early and ends early. That could be quite different for your BY this winter due to your location being further west. I am pretty bullish at this point for middle and western regions. E TN is a wild card, and that will depend on the strength of the almost certain SER.

Monster Post A little bit of this, and a little bit of that type of post...Be sure to check the links as they have great information. The Rutgers Snow Lab is pretty phenomenal. Part I (The past): Again, I think the GOA low pressure (on steroids) just prior to Christmas cooked our goose. It created a massive Chinook. When the pattern switched to a favorable eastern trough just days after Christmas, there was zero cold air to dump into it. If that GOA doesn't develop, we make out like gangbusters. It wasn't until the back half of the pattern when the NAO matured that we got enough cross polar flow to reach into the SE and connect w/ the active STJ. You can see the storm track clearly. Here is the animated storm map for the season (goes storm-by-storm): https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/js_animate.html?nsteps=151&year=2024&month=2&day=29&type=ruc_snow_precip&region=National&ts=24&large=1 With the accompanying link, you can see the cold press southwestward during late December and early January. At that point it is just the luck of the draw. With the lack of strong source regions, the cold never really made it into the eastern coastal Plain. I think part of that was an active STJ, and part of it was the cold parked itself in Eurasia. That happens during some winters. Part II (Current): Additionally, I think we have ENSO natural conditions currently (maybe even a bit earlier than predicted): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf I think we kind of are in a quick transition to nada and then Nina. But beware, the potential for a cool, spring(especially mid-later March) due to a Nino rebound/hangover....lurks. I borrowed a graphic from The Weather Channel for ENSO neutral aka La Nada: Part III (Big Picture): Here is a plot for North American/Greenland combined snow cover trends. This forum would have STRUGGLED during the 90s winters after 95-96. Many of those years were El Nino, some supers. They were brutal in terms of snow - and I mean brutal. During one winter, we didn't even quit mowing. You can see that in regards to this graph. Take a look at January 2024 and decadal trend - up. Interestingly, December has really increased while Feb/March (over the years) have decreased. That fits what I am seeing IMBY - more snow in early December than I remember, but less snow at the end of winter. Also, I don't remember much December snow at all as a kid(70s and bell bottoms)...and the linked NCEP confirms less snow during 70s Decembers for NA. Winters seem to be starting a bit earlier in terms of now in the eastern valley, but close up shop during spring earlier. Fun site...link is below the graphic. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/snow-cover/namgnld/1 Again, if you think it is bad now...go look at the 90s..... https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=1 Part IV (Future): The strength of the La Nina(the Nina watch has been issued) will be key to next winter. If the La Nina is weak, I am going to feel pretty good for most areas of the state. If it is moderate - just middle and west. If it is strong - torch. I look a little less at where it is centered and look more at its strength. Right now to my eyes, it looks weak. Weak La Nina patterns have been very good to western and middle portions(even to Knoxville) recently...some years weak La Nina patterns can push well east of that. And those years have been great. Summer impacts would likely mean an increasing dry and hot pattern for July and August(likely lasting into early-mid fall) w/ a sharp switch to a colder pattern for November.

I am holding one card tight. Got to know when to hold'em and know when to fold'em.

It was humming here too.

The rain today just looked like a sustained, high speed fog over the road tops today....reminded me of a gale I saw in coastal Oregon a few years ago. Pacific storms are just a different beast - so powerful.

Better than decent. Half a foot in a winter storm...I take it over 4x2" snows any day of the week. Great run. Hate it had to end, but good run.

This winter was substantially better IMBY when compared to last year....not even close. We had school systems closed for a solid week and deservedly so.

The wind is absolutely howling...non stop. Strong line of storms just to the west of TRI. Been a while since the wind has ripped like this IMBY.

And one more which is pretty cool...just move the slide: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_monthly/

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/tables/monthly.html

When the black helicopters show up, winter is over........

Elk, metal snowman, wooly worm, and now....... Jupiter. Fun read. Interesting stuff.

We'll see, man. You may be right, but nobody knows the future. I have seen warm springs flip cold far too many times. Agree on next winter.....but again, sometimes winters buck seasonal analogs. We are overdue a snowless winter - forum wide. Those do happen. But I think we possibly see a decent winter again next winter. I think we are in a -NAO cycle, and that will help. With the PDO being a decadal oscillation, it doesn't surprise me that it didn't flip. I do think we are due to see it come up for air at some point. Hopefully that times w/ next winter, though there is no evidence of that at this point. The Nina is showing hints of being centered over the dateline. Not a great signal at this point, but a LONG way to go. My money is on an early winter as well w/ maybe some NAO help and an SSW which we would need for the second half of winter. All of that is assuming the ENSO state. A few years ago, they got the ENSO wrong(for winter) w/ the lead time being June of the same year....a single, volcanic eruption could change everything or even something we haven't thought of yet.

I will say this, one can make a pretty decent seasonal forecast for this area by using these tools -> ENSO state(nada is not good, but weak Nino or Nina will work), PDO, recent winter trends regarding NAO, QBO vectors(my term), and solar state. The really, really good winter sequences often have a lot of that in the correct phases, but not all. Those are pretty much what I use. I was on a hot streak w/ 5 straight months of DJF forecasts going back to last winter. I learned all of that from mets and great hobby folks on this forum. This February bit the dust for my seasonal ideas, and when one looks at the ENSO state(see my comment above)...it was tough to time the collapse. But that collapse appears to have driven the switch to warmer temps. Cosgrove missed on February as well, BUT he called for a quick flip to warm during March as he said analogs showed the Nino would collapse. He had the right idea, but timing eluded him as well. Good call though on his part. Honestly, that was such an intense cold shot as evidenced by the record amount of time deep snow was on the ground in the eastern valley....it is not surprising that we broke towards spring. That happens a lot. It happened last winter. It also happened during 84-85 at TRI. The eastern trough this winter lasted about 25 days. Dec 15 - Jan 19. That is roughly four weeks and fits the 4-6 week pattern cycles that we have seen for many years. As soon as the last week of Jan warmed on modeling, I should have known the game was up...that was not a ridge rolling through on modeling for late January, but a true pattern change. I do still hold out hope for a well-timed bowling ball.

West of the Apps, La Nina's aren't terrible...they just have to remain weak. Moderate or strong La Nina and we torch. Some great winters have been weak La Nina's, but the there is usually help from the PDO, and we kind of want the PDO out of ENSO sync for that to happen.

Yes. On GaWx's map above(assuming those are examples of both...the positive phase is on the left), the positive phase on the left would favor less trough over the West. It is technically a Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Though it is often connectedt to ENSO state - not always. Because it is a decadal oscillation it can take 10+ years to flip, and it is long over due. Though, I make not claim to being an expert on this topic. Her is NASA JPL's PDO page.... https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/vital-signs/pacific-decadal-oscillation/#:~:text=During a cool (negative) phase,coastlines of the Northeast Pacific. Here is NCEI's page....(I like this one better...you will notice some differences between the two pages) https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ I can see why one person on X(reference Holston's earlier post) might say 2027 as that assumes the current cycle began during 2017 which also coincides w/ recent negative La Nina's. If one looks at the second NCEI site, one will notice lots of good winters correspond to +PDO cycles. We are actually due for it to come up for some air. It will sometimes turn briefly positive even during a negative cycle just according to NCEI's data. It doesn't have to be positive for long....even just briefly will do it. Maybe that is what JB is banking on? If so, there is some merit to that. We are in a pretty long stretch, and it should have gone positive this winter, but didn't. Pretty rare for it to stay negative for much longer than it has recently. This is anomalous negative activity.

Just reading D'Aleo over at WxBell who I respect a lot....he has a graph of one area of the Pac where the El Nino just collapsed during mid January (100-180?). I have not looked to see where that is, but I do wonder if the collapse of the El Nino has had a significant effect on the second half of winter. We kind of got the worst of both worlds - first half Nino(typically warm) and second half Nada(typically warm!). We managed about ten days of weak El Nino...and many scored. Also, JB thinks the PDO is set to flip positive next winter. I see no evidence of that but haven't looked at recent metrics for it. Anyone have a forecast for it?

Possible changes afoot. By using the general 4-6 week pattern rule, the current pattern should end during week 1 or 2 of March, and a new pattern should begin. The last couple of weeks of March do not look warm...could be a mirage, but let's see. I am completely ditching the MJO at this point. During spring it often doesn't have as much influence, and it is a very garbled signal.

D10-15 GEFS looks interesting...