Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I thought they all looked very good. At some point, I do think we see the MJO begin to move. JB had a great write-up on that today. MJO plots could get wild as we potentially will have convection in two different MJO regions (5/2?). The Australian has a new look where it takes the tour during the second half of the month. No other model has that. The Australian MJO has been woeful at times this winter, so I am not holding my breath waiting for a correct solution with it. We could see a major shift in medium and LR modeling if that BOM look persists. For now, I suspect that we could stay cold, even in the warm MJO phases if the Australian MJO is correct for the second half of the month. That has occurred before during one of the 90s winters...maybe 95-96? Can't remember. To me, looks like cold is coming and storms as well, regardless of the MJO look right now. I think we can get to the end of the month in good shape, but slightly shaky ground in saying that. Patterns normally run 4-6 weeks. By the end of Jan, we are pushing the limits at how long this pattern can hold. Not saying the next pattern is worse BTW. I suspect the next pattern pulls the cold into the center of the country or back into the front range. I bet it pushes more than it did during December if that is the case. The 18z GFS is where we want this to go. Looks crazy good.
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Really there are two boomers within the next week on that run. NE blizzard and then a potent slider. Either, both, or none could impact this region....better that just “none” as an option at this point! As John notes, modeling has really wanted to deepen storms along the coast. Tnweathernut also stated it’s a matter of time before something phases.
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18z GFS is bringing the good stuff so far this run...
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You should put that in the historical thread. Very cool.
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Nah, I am an NAO guy myself, but see the Pacific as much more important than I used to, especially given where the AMO is. @John1122 though is the Pacific guy, and for very good reason. John has two big things he preaches for in order for us to achiever cold winters....1. Cold than normal November 2. Good Pacific. I soundly concur. He has kind of one me over on the second point. When you go look at great winter patterns since the late 80s(and prior), you actually will see a +NAO for some of them. The -NAO is just a common factor in many BIG coastal storms. But if you want a really cold winter pattern, the Pacific has to be there. It is very difficult to find a winter where the Pacific was not in our favor. December was just wonky. That big Aleutian high in combo with the NAO, oddly locked the cold in the West - very unusual pattern. If the AMO was in our favor, the Atlantic would be much more important. Until it switches back, the Pacific is the key. Now, the NAO is much more effective during the second half of winter. I don't think I really understood that until this winter. FTR, you do not want an NAO during summer - HOT! If we can hit a good -NAO cycle, that corresponds with good winter cycles as well. It may have more to do with the -NAO being a signature of a disruption of the TPV. IDK.
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I was in TRI at the time. There may have been some ice. The weather was so bad, I just remember there being a layer of ice under the snow for weeks. Not entirely sure how it got there.
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Oddly, many of the teleconnections during these two storms were not optimum. I will have to double check JB on this, but he basically said all of them(with the exception of the WPO) were not in the right spot. I am guessing the potential upcoming cold shot will be EPO and/or Alaskan block driven.
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LOL. That sounds cold!!! We heated our house at the time with a portable kerosene heater and one wall heater. The cold was almost like a liquid. It just seeped into everything. The insides of our windows froze due to condensation. Pipes froze. We had to make sure that the light in the well house was left "on" in order to keep the well head from freezing up. It was an amazing time.
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Obviously singling one run out(at long range) is just speculation on my part. I am just providing an example of one potential path modeling may settle upon. After 198, TRI only goes above 40 for (1) six hour time frame until the end of the run - I think. I would say right now that temps below zero are in the realm of possibility if modeling is anywhere close to being right. Just going to depend on whether an eastern storm deepens. If we were to get hit by an inland runner which deepened and sent the cold south...93-94 is within the realm of possibility. That means snow would be around for days if that transpired. I remember driving to UT on the interstate from my apartment at Papermill with just one lane of the interstate open. It was brutal. I somehow forgot that winter, but John reminded us that winter was brutally cold. I do remember an afternoon that winter when we had convective snow thunderstorms. Have never seen that before or since.... A little ahead of myself at this point. Want to wait a few days before really saying this is likely. I think the potential is there though.
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Yep, models are definitely honking, and so are analog packages and the MJO to some extent. Obviously, nothing is a certainty, but very strong hints for sure. The 18z GFS took TRI below freezing at 294 and didn't get back above freezing until 384. Couple of days with highs in the teens. The GFS has been very cold in the LR. Ensembles 500mb patterns would allow for cold to get pretty far south. Seeing 93-94 and 95-96 show up in analog packages today. @John1122There is 1994 in the analog package. It was in the 6-10 as well.
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CMC has done well. It has a cold bias, but decent. Other modeling has been close during that time frame. The way the 12z GEFS and GEPS ensembles looked at 12z, one would expect multiple storms in the east with that look.
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Man, would have liked to have seen where the end of that 12z CMC run was heading.
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LR looks good. The MJO looks good on most of the CPC plots as well. The ECMWF(bias correction), gets a wee bit too close to phase 6 for my liking. The GEFS basically stalls the MJO on the border of phase 8 in perpetuity. The Weeklies look like background cold phases. The Weeklies do provide an idea of where the Euro MJO is heading - i.e. creates a reasonable bridge from todays plots to the LR. Not a lot to add. A bit of a break in tracking right now. Nearly all ensembles and the GFS operational show a very active and cold pattern beginning around the 15th or 16th. Cold shot on tap early next week. I do have my eye on that, but don't see much more than back end flurries at the moment. Looks like a warm-up from the 13th-15th. Again, LR modeling has been pretty decent since early December. So, hopefully they reel in yet another good timeframe for tracking winter storms.
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Yeah, man. I had just about given up - had given up!!! Same here in terms of snow. Nice to get on the board for this winter. What a wild week. Glad you got some snow!!!
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And even more crazy, temps were in the 70s in the eastern Valley on Jan 1.
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95-96 is sneaking in there. This snow in middle TN is super similar to one of those storms, just displaced to the west a bit. We have had two forum snowstorms in one week. The high temp was 78 here on Saturday. What a flip!
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Good pasting. About ~1" of snow. Will take. On the board for the season....
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Yeah, they are money up there. If we had to name a snow capital for the forum area, it would be in my top two. Sits at 2,400' and has a latitude advantage and gets lake effect snow to some extent on northwest flow. The snow totals they have for storms rivals some cities out West.
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Snowing pretty good here (north side of Bays) as well. Ground is white. I didn't even know it was snowing until I read @1234snow's post. LOL.
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18z GFS(several previous runs as well).....What really has me intrigued is the parade of storms with relatively BN temps in place - cold weather plus an active STJ. Beginning around the 15th(210), I count roughly 4 systems out to 330. Models hasn't finished running yet.
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The map that @Bigbaldposted above is wild. It will change here at 18z most assuredly. But this is what was under that at 500. I know you know this, East Knox, but for those new to the forum...this is just for fun since it was so extreme.
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That look is bringing the hammer.
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Textbook winter pattern. If I lived on the EC, I would be licking my chops - neg tilt trough over NA. YAS!!!!
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Pattern looks great from the 15th to roughly the 30th. Get the EPS looking like what Holston posted, things could be rocking. What a turn around from last week. The 30d map on the Euro Weeklies is BN for temps and roughly AN for precip for the forum area. As we have seen this week, AN precip and BN temps is a good combo.
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15-30th looks really good. Not guaranteeing anything, but about as good as it gets. Let's hope we can reel it in.
