Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    17,420

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Probably 2013 for rate driven snow IMBY. It caught our schools system by surprise. We had busses stuck everywhere. Yes, crazy run of the 6z GFS. It looked a bit wonky at the surface as it tried to recurve near Hatteras. At 500, it looks clean but is a big break from continuity.
  2. Carvers Gap
    El Nino winters = winter begins about the time we are ready for spring............just a preview of next winter.
  3. Carvers Gap
    In the same way that Nina winters find ways not to snow during Jan/Feb....Nino springs find ways not be warm until mid-late May.
  4. Carvers Gap
    You all are lawn care wizards....and that is a huge compliment.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The full buffet......
  6. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that guy runs a great page. He runs StarValleyWx in western WY. It is just a small webpage outfit. I believe he used to work at the Sever Wx Storm Center in Oklahoma. He runs a great website. His webcams are awesome. I am definitely a winter wx junkie! I loosely track winter storms out there just for fun(and I don't post about those).
  7. Carvers Gap
    And spring is also not on the Euro Weeklies. Around the 21st, it goes cold and doesn't move. Now, to be fair, we have seen it miss badly at this range already this winter. BUT, it fits with the MJO rotation that we are seeing. March looks nasty.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS follows suit with my earlier comment....spring is going to have to wait.
  9. Carvers Gap
    It is going to feel like spring this week. After the miserable, cold, drizzly weather of last week, the sun feels awesome! That said, I do not yet see spring on modeling. My guess is that it arrives later in March, but the cold tries to hang on as Nino climatology fully takes over.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Farily substantial differences between the 0z GEPS/EPS vs GEFS. The 0z GEPS/EPS produce a fairly large trough around the 18th. I think differences in the MJO are likely the root of this.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Going to be a rough next few winters after this exceptional winter out there....just knee high to a giraffe. Here is my webcam go-to.... http://www.camviewing.com/mosaic/
  12. Carvers Gap
    Next window after the 11th appears to be the 18th-21st. That is based on ensembles, not operationals. Then, the late month/early March cold shot is probably in the works.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Tough to know. I don’t track severe wx. Anytime there is a lot of warm air and cold air though.....fireworks are possible. The developing Nino likely dampens severe season...but outbreaks are always possible.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The MJO(which has been stalled in 3....and is still stalled in 3) is set to rapidly travers the warm phases. It then could possibly be in phase 8 as soon as the 19th if the Euro is correct or a week later if the GEFS/CFS is correct. Not sure I buy the slow traverse, but that is what is being portrayed this morning. Meanwhile, the mid-month warm-up still appears on tap w/ cold fronts slicing through the warm air mass at regular intervals.
  15. Carvers Gap
    That would fit the flight path and timing almost perfectly IMHO. Great find! I am super impressed. People who follow the weather as a hobby...can find stuff at 60,000'!
  16. Carvers Gap
    Wow, I think you did get a photo. Hunter Ward (Asheville Wx) has a potential photo of it over Hendersonville(NC) around 9:00AM. If you snapped that earlier, good chance that is exactly what that is, and it would match the trajectory!
  17. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS, 0z Euro, and 0z CMC have some sort of winter wx event (light) for next weekend.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Well, we have something else to track.... @Daniel Boone, you know if they ever decide to do something about this, it is coming down in somebody's front yard in this forum. ORNL, BAE, and NFS in that flight path. https://fox59.com/news/national-world/possible-chinese-balloon-tracker-where-is-it-headed-next/
  19. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS agains looks decent at 180. That is the only analysis I am giving at this range. LOL.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Starting to see ensembles push back on the SER around the 20th. If that is the case, this month will not be as bad as I originally though. We are going to have some very warm days, but 12z ensembles are hinting that could be short-lived (MJO plots as well).
  21. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, when I envisioned this winter...that 12z GFS run is how I envisioned it(maybe a bit more compressed in terms of frequency). Lots of warmth, but intrusions of cold w/ some chances if timing works.
  22. Carvers Gap
    WARNING: GFS at range. The 12z run wasn't terrible.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has a similar set-up but phases less....but not a terrible look either.
  24. Carvers Gap
    It is only 198 hours out there, and it is on the GFS....but that is the general idea. LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    It has been a while since the end of Feb and beginning of March were decent. Kind of an MJO nugget this AM, many models are trying to race through warm phases at low amplitude and cut quickly to 7/8. Even the 6z GEFS is not overly warm after d10(big warmup prior to that). Maybe this is the year where we see 1-2 more windows in the valleys after Feb 20? For your troubles....
×
×
  • Create New...