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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Here is the link to the MJO....It is a "choose your own adventure" mess. Remember those books? Click on each model run. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Some refuse to go into warm phases. Some saunter and smell the roses as they progress through 4-6. Some hit the wall in 3 and won't progress! LOL. And their subsequent model runs reflect those almost exactly. Choose your own adventure. What do I think? Same as I have. Good pattern through the 10th(maybe even extended a few days). Then the pattern goes warm for 15-20 days. The last of January and all of February work out. Cosgrove has been really good this winter. I strongly recommend reading his update which should come out tonight.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Complex for sure at this range. The complexity itself likely means it changes many times between now and the event as you all noted. I'll take a stab at it. Weak low pressure - almost a lee side Plateau low. Probably is a handoff to the Piedmont/Coast. Downsloping city right there. Air gets compressed, heats up, and we get warm air on the west side of the Apps...and less precip. Add in some warm nose, and you get that look. On the west side of the eastern valley...cold air gets pushed by counter clockwise flow up against the Plateau. The cold has nowhere to go. Th precip rises through the cold air, further cooling the air column, and you get rates induced snow. I have seen nearly that exact setup during ice storms. I have had 30 degrees at TRI, and 40 in JC/Unicoi.
  3. Carvers Gap
    We have light snow falling as I type this. Though it hasn't accumulated, we have had snow falling off-and-on for almost 24 hours.... I think we are seeing models mishandle the MJO badly....they have been truly terrible of late in handling it. They completely whiffed on cold phases, and I do wonder about the validity of the potential 45 day tour through the warm phases. That may verify, but the warm water over phase 8 should produce rain near the dateline. I also think ensembles are all over the place in the placement of the NAO, and that has huge impacts right along the east coast. Also, it appears to me that modeling is breaking down the Nino far too quickly. The cold stretching from Calgary to Nashville is nearly a textbook Nina signal - that I don't buy(the cold I do...just that it doesn't extend to the coast). If that is the configuration, that cold should go to Savannah, Georgia, and not stop at the Apps. But the big message is the Pacific is likely to be less favorable, and we need the NAO. I don't see overwhelming SER signatures, but I do see an east coast ridge near the coast. To me those are different features (the EC ridge and the SER). As for November, that rule hasn't worked IMBY of late...it for sure normally has some skill, but during the past few Nina winters....it rarely worked. The colder Novembers still had warm DJF averages if I remember correctly for my back yard. It did work for middle and west TN. I do think that when North America cools down during fall, it raises chances of a better winter. The bigger issue was drought during fall - that is a big "tell" in regards to where cold likes to go - it doesn't like heading to dry areas. But you all in west and middle areas, you can't say that you weren't warned over the summer. Nino winter storm tracks favor eastern areas. Next winter, you all "should" be back on deck. Not counting this winter, two of your last three winters have featured significant snow and ice events for middle and west TN - banner winters. And who knows, this winter could still break your way.
  4. Carvers Gap
    LR discussion(brief)....extended ensembles are most definitely sensing the crawling MJO(in warm phases) after mid Jan. We need a counter(block) to that where the NAO doesn't hook into an eastern ridge. We need the trough to slide under that block and hold on. If not, going to be very difficult to get winter to return with much meaningful time left on the clock. That is not a winter cancel post(for after Jan 15th), but more like a special weather advisory with the potential for a watch to be issued at a later date.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Hit a heavy sleet/snow shower on the way home from JC. Thankfully the roads were good. The intensity of that wouldn't have taken long to snarl things
  6. Carvers Gap
    If this storm for the 4th is still there tomorrow evening or even Sunday morning, probably time to post a thread. The ICON has it. The 18z GFS has it w/ a slight jog SE(which is where we want it). I mean really, I might be interested enough to stay up and watch models at 0z. It looks that good. The Euro pushed it similar to the GFS trend at 18z...so edit, it looks cautiously decent.
  7. Carvers Gap
  8. Carvers Gap
    Again, I think we are good to the 10th in terms of temps. The roads diverge after that. The NAO might be one of the most difficult features for modeling to predict. Models will often miss it completely, over-estimate its intensity, or put AN heights in the wrong spot. What happens after the 10th is very likely going to be dependent on the NAO. I suspect that MJO forecasts are a trainwreck right now. MJO forecasts completely missed the turn into the colder phases. So for the MJO, I am not sure what I am seeing is reality at all. Now, I fully expect some ugliness to show its head as we aren't going to dodge warm phases all winter. It's the South, we aren't staying warm indefinitely during most winters. We need the Atlantic. But honestly, if what the GEFS and GEPS are showing at 12z is correct...we might want a warm-up for a bit.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Light snow flurries here as well.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Pretty wild pattern, and hopefully will be more interesting than last Jan/Feb was for us. I have no idea if that actually happens, but ensembles have been honking for some time about cold around the 12th. Lots of plates getting juggled right now with modeling trying sort out the MJO and potential HL blocking and the STJ being active.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is going to release the Arctic hounds after the NAO/SER hook ridge slides off at +300.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And I mean stalls that system....wow. To clarify, I am referencing the 12z GFS...27 hours around Hatteras. CMC has the same system but a slider. So, two to track.
  13. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Fortunately, it is just ahead of our system. If it gets over the top, no bueno. The next system after it is a mixed bag but perfect track...and then it stalls over Hatteras. That run is still going. Even though snow maps won't be as pretty for that, we take that look ALL DAY LONG.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Happy Hour is 6 hour early!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the CMC and GFS at 12z are not going to be content with just one system inside of 200h.
  16. Carvers Gap
    FYI, I am going to keep my discussion about the light snow event for today and tomorrow in the December thread just so we can find it later....And for the storm threat next week, I would recommend posting that here. That will also keep the two discussions separate.
  17. Carvers Gap
    SWS posted or TRI, portions of the Plateau, SW VA: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 834 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035-042-044-046-081-082-102-VAZ001-002-005- 006-008-292100- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Morgan-Northwest Greene-Washington TN-Northwest Carter- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell- Washington VA- Including the cities of Andrews, Marble, Topton, Hiawasse Dam, Murphy, Unaka, Violet, Shooting Creek, Brasstown, Hayesville, Tusquitee, Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Cagle, Dunlap, Cartwright, Lone Oak, Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine, Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton, Big Frog Mountain, Ducktown, Turtletown, Rose Hill, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 834 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023 /734 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Light Snow Showers Today Through Saturday... A slow moving winter weather system will bring light snow showers to the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, southwest North Carolina, and northeast Tennessee today through Saturday. The snow may mix with rain at lower elevations during the warmer hours of the afternoon. Snow accumulations for most areas are expected to be only around a dusting and limited to grassy or elevated surfaces, mainly for locations above 1500 feet elevation. Mountains and ridge tops above 2500 feet elevation may receive up to one inch of snow accumulation. Relatively warm road temperatures will melt any snow for all but the highest elevation roads. Anyone driving on these mountain roads, especially those with a northward facing slope that receive limited sunlight, should be prepared for possible slick spots.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Winter Wx Advisories now posted for the spine of the Apps...
  19. Carvers Gap
    Decent look again on the 12z GFS.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yep, true. It is not a bad look. I don't like the NW trend of late, so 12z will be important in that regard I think. Tough to resist a good Euro clown map FWIW. LOL.
  21. Carvers Gap
    0z Euro control run from overnight. Most of this is Jan 4th-7th....storm is trending a bit close on operationals for my book, but fun run. I think we need to score early during January.
  22. Carvers Gap
  23. Carvers Gap
    Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for portions of the Plateau. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 205 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 TNZ011-032>034-065-066-078>080-292100- /O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0005.231230T0000Z-231230T1200Z/ Pickett-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-White-Cumberland-Warren-Grundy- Van Buren- Including the cities of Byrdstown, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Sparta, Crossville, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, and Spencer 205 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one inch with locally higher elevations up to two inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...From 6 PM CST this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I do think we are probably going to need to track the system on Jan 4th. The 6z GFS looked like a decent past for eastern areas. That is in addition to a good Euro run at 0z
  25. Carvers Gap
    Some great model runs for the timeframe before the 10th, and we had better hit. The new GEFSext MJO plot doesn't even get the MJO out of phase 5 until Jan 28th. It is conceivable that the entire month of January could be spent in warm phases of the MJO - and still not even rotate into 6 which is the warmest. Now, I am not convinced this is what occurs, but that plot is the worst case scenario - and that is the eastern ridge hooking into the NAO scenario likely. That said, notice the MJO is not out of phase 8 yet, and most modeling didn't have the current stall in 8. However, seeing the MJO stall out in 5 would be a surprise to me......but the plot below would basically wipe out out best climatology from Jan 15th to roughly Feb 7th. Again, it is possible this is completely wrong, and I will probably look at that scenario later. Think last year where the MJO wouldn't leave the warm phases....this winter, it should really not want to go there. The CFSv2 seasonal this morning has flipped January to warm. Basically, the CFS is banking on the second half of January being very warm. Most LR modeling is flirting with a western Atlantic ridge which is hooked into the NAO for an undetermined duration after Jan 10th. That is a huge problem. Let's hope that is in error.
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