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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Who knows if one run of the GFS means anything, but that is a total reversal d10+(and I mean total...replace troughs for ridges and ridges for troughs) at 18z. While not surprising at that range, it is impressive to see that change. That likely means the d10+ is not the foregone conclusion that it has had for days.
  2. Carvers Gap
    LOL. The 18z GFS went from SER being a problem to suppression in one run(referencing d10+).
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 18z from d11-13 is a complete reversal. Trough moves eastward, and the ridge is in the West. First time at 282 that the trough has made it into the east at 500mb that I can remember. It has basically been stuck in the Four Corners in the Southwest.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yep. That is actually fairly significant move by the operational. It has a ridge along the West coast, and cold is in the Plains and not locked over the Rockies. The cold front actually gets east of the Apps.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Pretty big move at 500 by the 18z GFS around d10.......
  6. Carvers Gap
    Very true. I think of that SE ridge is going to be key and if we can get a mechanism for that cold to surge eastward. I think we really want that cold in the Plains and not over the Rockies.
  7. Carvers Gap
  8. Carvers Gap
    Again, this is the stuff I don't share as often as I should. This is one extreme. Obviously, warmth is the other.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we have been dealing with cruddy source regions for two weeks(still managed and upslope event even though). One consistent variable among modeling is quite severe cold. If that cold chills Canada, modeling nailed that aspect from about 4 weeks. A deepening storm over the East could potentially send a lot of that eastward until the SER fights back. It could just park in the west and not move(GFS operation), but the MJO would argue that it comes eastward(maybe all of it per CMC). For me, I have been kind of conditioned during the past couple of winters to think the cold dumps west and won't move eastward or stalls on the Plateau. So, that could happen. But some of the historical winter patterns have the Rockies to the Apps cold. It has been a long time since that occurred, but having most of the Lower 48 cold is not without precedent. That said, the SER is definitely Nina climatology, so I think it shows. We just don't want a standing ridge as Jax aptly notes.
  10. Carvers Gap
    And meanwhile, if the 12z Euro is correct(or still just trending northwest which is likely), there is a trackable system this weekend or shortly thereafter if the 12z GEFS is correct.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I don't think we see a +PNA anytime soon, but it would be welcomed if it was. I think we see the -EPO force Canadian cold into the Rockies and then strong cold fronts usher it eastward. The EPO could very well be the mechanism which forces the cold into the Lower 48. The SER will fight. At some point, I do wonder if it all comes eastward per the CMC and CFSv2. The other development is the NAO region showing some hints at rejuvenation. Certainly there are multiple options on the table, and even the GEFS has cold coming eastward at times....it has the stormiest look of all modeling.
  12. Carvers Gap
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS EPO mean is negative.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I hope if anything the models slides above provide examples of what kind of cold air is about to enter the pattern. Models have been adamant for weeks that NA would cool down. There is an increasing likelihood that now verifies. Get those source regions colder w/ shortening wavelengths, and let's see what happens.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Here is what we are dealing with. These are 5day ensemble means for d10-15. The CMC is the most extreme. The EPS seems like a good compromise as the GEFS seems to not see the cold in the East. At this range, I recommend a blend of all three, and that gives us a really good pattern. The last image is for kicks and giggles. That is the Feb2-7th temp anomaly map from the CFSv2. Again, surface pressure anomalies are not the same as 500mb anomalies. With cold air residing near the surface, it is very important to look at surface anomalies which will be AN as the result of cold HP. Cold air can cut under the SER which is why overrunning is a concern.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think this is strat warm stuff. Modeling is crazy haywire in the LR....Outside of the GEFS(which I don't discount BTW), modeling is quite cold for our area and seems to be strengthening with each run.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS/EPS ensembles have trended to cold filtering into the Plains. Both are considerably colder than 0z. Even the GEFS has cooled considerably during the past couple of days for the timeframe from 23rd to the 30th. What comes after the 30th is open for fun debate. The EPS has the 500 BN heights in the northwest to end the run, but surface anomalies have quite cold temps over the US from the Rockies eastward. The GEPS is crazy cold. The EPS seems like a good compromise between the aggressive GEPS and feedbacky GEFS runs at 12z.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I think the strength/depth/intensity of the cold air behind it will also matter...especially for the ensuing storms which follow. The CFSv2 is now showing 20-25F degree BN departures for the first week of Feb. Cold dumps into the Plains and spreads eastward (EDIT). Interesting to see where this goes for sure.
  19. Carvers Gap
    This is the 12z EPS for the Jan 22/23 system. That is about where we want it. Some cutters, but majority take the low road.
  20. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, w/ so much cold in play over the Plains, the CMC and Euro arrive pretty much at the same place by the end of their runs(cold front headed east). Neither have budged much. It is odd to see the Euro w/ a progressive bias, but is has had a slight one at times this winter. Again, I suspect the deterministic GFS is having feedback issues over the West. The Canadian and Euro (paired together) for the long wave pattern has been a good pairing all winter. Right now, the GEPS scores the coup if the Euro deterministic is correct. The 12z GEFS does not agree w/ the 12z GFS deterministic. It is really the GFS deterministic vs its own ensemble as well once the storm on the 22nd passes. Those is a pretty big difference. This feels like a similar analysis to the December outbreak. Ride w/ the ensembles as the operationals are going to be all over the place.
  21. Carvers Gap
    This may be a "pay me now or pay me later setup." If it cuts, it sets the boundary for the next storm on the 27th. If it doesn't cut, it forms a storm w/ the 22nd/23rd piece of energy.
  22. Carvers Gap
    We want the 12z Euro to be correct. What follows that storm is also full of multiple winter chances.
  23. Carvers Gap
    That has the makings of a big storm on the 12z Euro. Does it trend to the GFS and cut? I could. But for now, very nice run.
  24. Carvers Gap
    At 180, the 12z Euro has now changed rain over to snow on Plateau. Nice setup.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, the 12z Euro is coming in w/ a snow event for west TN for the 22nd and 23rd w/ an Apps runner about 173.
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