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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The GFS is nearly 30-40 degrees colder than its 0z run for the 4th. That tells me there is much still to work out. The trend on across deterministic runs overnight is to move the boundary southward.
  2. Carvers Gap
    0z CMC is icy for middle and west TN. The 0z Euro and 6z GFS both turn into decent snow storms for KY. The Euro plaster the MA. Main message is ice, and lots of it. There is still a ton of flux w/ the boundary. The 6z GFS was substantially colder than its 0z run, evidently "finding" the cold it air it lost at 18z.
  3. Carvers Gap
    There is much to enjoy about following the weather. I just think getting bummed over one run is getting sucked into the vacuum that other forums have dealt with. I used to be swayed like that. However, this is a great hobby, and I have learned to enjoy hunting storms. Maybe it is because I used to fish a lot or I am getting older and know my days are numbered(no, I am not dying...LOL)....some days are great and some aren't. But getting out there on the water is always good. Opening up new model suites is generally enjoyable for me. It is akin to hunting for Easter eggs in a video game for me. Plus, I just enjoy the maps and graphs. Enough analogies. For me the best thing about this winter was standing w/ the local HS band as they were waiting to go into Lucas Oil Field for their national semis run. It was unexpected, and awesome. I never saw it coming on modeling. Sometimes the unexpected things are the best. ...just reminding everyone to enjoy a great hobby and the truly great fellowship of this forum. In about 4-6 weeks, many will head back into hibernation until next season.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Strongest winds of the day here @Math/Met, it is howling.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Ya’ll, it is one run of a deterministic. It may trend towards worse...but swaying this way and that with each deterministic run is what is miserable. Whew. The overnight runs were decent, and it looked like a funeral in here when I woke up. LOL. It is not the end of the world if it doesn’t snow. Lots of great things in life. Keep your eyes on the horizon and not looking at each wave. One thing I have learned over the years is to enjoy the tracking - good or bad. Let’s not forget that we had a decent amount of cold during November/December. Count your blessings. One storm and most of us reach normal - that is all it takes.
  6. Carvers Gap
    But cold on that run is lacking for sure.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I have to be honest, I will take the suppressed look right now.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Less cold...and oddly less SER. Still suppressed at 177.
  9. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is flatter after 150. No idea what that leads to, but it suppressed the two leading waves.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Especially at our latitude. It is like trying to get it to rain at 7000’ in Wyoming during the middle of winter. It can, but it really doesn’t want to.....
  11. Carvers Gap
    I don't even know about trends at this point. I am just looking to see where the general track cone is, and that the storm signal is still there. I would think by Saturday, we will have a very good idea of where this is headed. I, and some others, follow a general rule that we have to get a threat inside 150 hours to really track it. Models are decently good enough now that sometimes we can track out to day7-9, but that has its pitfalls as we have all seen. This is tricky business where very cold air is trying to undercut a weak HP at 500mb. The axis is shifting hundreds of miles right now due to projections of the SER, the strength of the cold air, and number of short waves which drive the boundary. Pretty big cone right now. That cone decreases with each run. Kind of like March Madness, we want to survive and advance. For much of January, we have been in the NIT. This is a legit pattern right now, so we just want to stay in the game with each passing model suite until this narrows the cone.
  12. Carvers Gap
    So what is the difference between the control and deterministic runs?......The storms which are bigger appear to hold the energy back long enough for the cold to drive into the forum area. When they precip is quicker, it is more cold chasing rain. When that energy holds back, it gets nasty. It may also be that the cold front is stronger.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Euro control. This begins around 198....
  14. Carvers Gap
    I will have to go look in the SE forum. I have an old friend who works for ESPN, and we had been discussing the big storm for Charlotte. It definitely looked like model feedback, but if I remember correctly, most modeling had crazy amounts. He was HOT when that one busted.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, at this range deterministic runs will have a lot of variation. But the signal is what I am looking for. I am just looking for some consistency across modeling that we are in the game, and we are at this point. I also know, that can change in a heartbeat. I once watched 2-4'(feet is right!) modeled for Upstate South Carolina, and it busted badly even during the storm. So, we know the drill. LOL. On a serious note, that amount of freezing rain could be a huge problem, especially w/ the cold which follows on the CMC. Not quite sure I want to reel that one in......
  16. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, I have doing this a long time, and have seen many do exactly that(bust at this range). Busts at this latitude are plentiful regarding frozen precip. And the -30F wind chill event was modeled well at 7-8 days out. I have said this many times, if you want to be right 95% of the time during winter....call for rain at this latitude. Chasing snow is risky.
  17. Carvers Gap
    This is from the 12z GFS and CMC. Could it change? Yes, and probably will.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And ALL of it could go to the Ohio River valley. That is plausible. However, December is a great example of how it can go the other way - cold and dry. I like the active STJ and cold. That is a good combination for frozen precip in the Upper South, and even Mid-South. Plenty can and will change, but it is worth tracking.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The GFS and CMC diverge drastically after d7. The 12z GFS sends the boundary to the Ohio River Valley after plentiful snow and ice across the mid and upper south. The CMC actually depresses the boundary further and ends w/ ice in Atlanta. Very cold air is incredibly difficult for modeling to account for. Often it sits below 500mb, and creeps further than modeling depicts, and the CMC is a good example of that scenario. The SER is also a wild card and the GFS is a good example of that.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has nearly an identical setup. Again, we all know this is seven days out on the CMC(not eight), and it is the only game in town. Most of us are here during winter to track winter storms. It sure beats tracking mid 70s(and that is on the horizon BTW). This signal has shown up repeatedly on modeling for days to various extents. Does it verify? Who knows, but that is as good a signal as we have had this winter. Could it be a mirage? Sure. But we can certainly enjoy tracking a potential weather event without the caveats. We all should know them by now. It is rare that we all get winter at the same time. So, if this goes to middle and west TN, I celebrate for them(though I definitely pull for snow IMBY).
  21. Carvers Gap
    And that is why we say this thread is for speculation.
  22. Carvers Gap
    That would be a terrible ice storm for SW TN, northern MS, NE Arkansas, etc.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that looks like big winter storm on that run - ice, snow, sleet, overrunning.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, at 189 light wintry precip is breaking out across the forum area. Let's see where this goes.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looks like an incoming storm at 186.
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