Carvers Gap

Things that make you go hmmmm. Look closely at the dates. Hot off the press. I am tired of tracking stuff in the d10-15 range. Let's real this in folks. Just 400 more runs of the operational before we hit pay dirt. Remember w/ El Nino patterns: Jan/Feb are the months...and sometimes only Feb. Usually a delayed start to winter, everybody gets frustrated, and then winter hits. With this run...December was warm. Jan - cool. Feb - cold. On this run, Kingsport got 75" of snow. TYS only got 5" for the season.

The 18z GFS looks like the middle of winter....FWIW.

The 18z GFS is loaded.....

The interior NE could possible rival what the West has just experienced.

Sure. Here is the mean. This is probably more realistic. And I am pretty sure the 12z run was colder...these Weeklies were derived from 0z. Crazy map for 30d.

I am a sucker when it comes for an extreme run. This is the Euro control 7-day mean for d8-15. That is HIGHLY unlikely, but what a wild map. For those new to following the forum, those are departures from normal and NOT actual temps...but still.

In fantasy land just to show how extreme a run the Euro was, the control has SE KY, SW VA, and portions of NE TN....below zero for temps w/ snow on the ground at hour 300. This is a pattern where the cold really doesn't dump into the West first due to the Atlantic block. It comes straight down the Plains or over the Lakes. The only thing that modifies that air is length of day and lack of snow pack.

Real feels are in the teens and low 20s if I remember correctly. I am going to enjoy my peach tree blooming, because we aren't getting peaches this year. LOL. If it weren't at d8-9, I would post the departures map, and may anyway at some point. The mountains were 40 degrees below normal. As I said earlier, if the folks hiking the Appalachian Trail started early, they better have a plan come March 10th.

To be clear regarding the hot water heater, I am not sure we could get it out of the backyard because it still had water in it. The spout was clogged with deposits, and it wouldn't drain. I turned it over on its side and left there for a few days. I am sure the neighbors were loving it. LOL. The is the "bad hot water heater" pattern (BHWH).

I foresee March being like the opener to last night's show.

FWIW, I think the mountains of E TN and W NC get buried at some point. Winter is shifting from the West to the East for a couple of weeks from March 10th to ~25th. I think I will possibly see at least a trace of snow which will seem like a minor miracle after several days in the 70s and wearing shorts.

I would be very surprised if there weren't a couple of eastern storms by the end of March. Now, that doesn't mean here...just MillerA/B stuff as Holston spoke about in his earlier comments. This is the setup for those. More than likely the Northeast just gets buried.

Precip looks normal to above(EPS...edit). My money is on "warm-up" cold rain w/ wrap around snow showers FWIW. Whatever is the most unpleasant, that is where my money is. LOL. 2018 was miserable. I remember picking up a hot water heater in Johnson City, and it snowed all the way home. The yard was mush, and it took all we had to get the old one out. Man, I took the old heater out, and just left it in the backyard until it warmed up. LOL.

This is the 7d 500mb anomaly for d6-13. That is how you get cold in the East - textbook.

All I know right now wx modeling is incredibly cold(middle of winter stuff) right around March 10th or 11th. That lasts 2-3 days. We get maybe a 24-48 hour respite, and another round of cold follows. As far as the long wave pattern goes, once we get to about day 7, I don't think we see a ton of changes. Details within that potential long wave pattern are going to be interesting. Again, we have been burned many times since January, but this look has been pretty steady. We are about to the place where the long wave pattern on modeling is about to lock in. Not quite there yet, but close.

The Euro is the worst case scenario. But most operationals around the 11th, are showing a general 20-30 degree BN drop. There are places which could see a 40-50 degree difference in their high temps during the second week of March. For those not watching closely, that doesn't happen over night. That is a 3-4 day descent back into winter. How long we stay there is anyone's guess. My best estimate is 10-15 days, then a warm-up...and if this SSW does its work, we do it all over again in April. 2018 redux on the maps - for now. edit: To be clear, I don't think we say at 20-30 BN for 10-15 days. That is just how long I think the cold shot will lost. Departures during that time frame could be interesting though....just not that bad.

12z Euro has a high of 68F on the 7th, and on the 11th (fantasy land).....28F w/ upslope snow and a slop sliding along a frontal boundary to our SE as the run ends. It will likely not go down like that, but the flip to cold could be SHARP!

I can't remember who asked this, but during 2018 I think TRI had a colder average temp during March than it did during Feb. I can't remember who asked that. Anyway, 12z operational modeling is now fully on board w/ repetitive cold shots. That is worth noting as operational modeling had been out of step with their ensembles. Those are COLD looks w/ some days not getting out of the 30s.

I mentioned in the banter that this winter reminds me of the late 1990s winters - barren of snow with some notable exceptions. Joe D'Aleo at WxBell mentioned that this winter reminds him of 00-01 where winter came back in March for the Northeast(no implications here). Want to take a guess what ENSO state 98-99, 99-00, and 00-01 were in? It was a rare, three year La Nina cycle. In NE TN, with the exception of cold Christmases and snow on Christmas, the last three years IMBY remind me of those three years. The great thing? What followed were some decent winters as the temp gradient in the Pacific reset after several Nino years. I would suspect the PDO was not great during those winters. Just thought I would share that....

Let me share a couple of slides. One is the CFSv2 where you can see the likely storm track(snow on the ground). Just look at where it is coldest - light purple. Merge that w/ the CMC 0z snow mean, and you get the idea. IMHO, it is likely that some locals in the SE have yet to see the last flakes fly. I truly get uncomfortable discussing snow in March as it is infinitely fickle to predict. But let's call a spade a spade, that is a pattern which can produce. This kind of reminds me of tracking snow during late November. It isn't unprecedented, but it isn't unheard of. BTW, take a look at your Feb departures and look at 2018s for the same month...

Wow. That is wild! Thanks for the share. I will imply....LOL. Everyone can blame me! That is a cold and stormy pattern between phase 8 and 1, but it is going to be very warm until we get there.

Everyone, please keep your wits about you. HIGHLY unlikely the Euro is right as it is been woeful at range of late. That said, it does have reasonable support among ensemble members.

Increasing confidence that we will see temps 10-20F BN at some point between March 10-25. Operational models are just now picking up on this around d10. Ensembles have had it for 3-4 weeks(long range ensembles that is). This will be pretty crazy if we reel this in from that far out.

Yeah, train is on the tracks. Seems counterintuitive on a warm, sunny day like today. But this is highly likely not indicative of what is next.

Word...Euro is likely wrong, but the control run.............