87storms

let's be honest...there's no comfort level on a snowstorm until tomorrow 12z. i at least want to see gfs get on board.

this. i think i'm good for one more snowstorm, minor/major/whatever, and i'll be done and ready for spring. in fact, i'm actually ready for a mini drought at this point. ground is just way too saturated right now...gonna be a problem if we get a march windstorm.

this is where i'm at. we got one good snowstorm. aside from that, there's been a lot of snow left on the table because of all the rainers. let's see if the next couple weeks can turn the tide. if not, then just bring on spring...at least there's a good chance it'll be lush.

hope my jeep's heater core lasts through the next several snowstorms we're getting.

very noticeable change in the ice coverage from bethesda to columbia, especially once i got towards olney on the icc. pavement is wet here, but tops of trees have plenty of ice accretion.

i'm in

been pure rain here and i'm glad. freezing rain sucks unless it's legit, on the street, ice hockey style, which is rarer than a hecs in the cities. gfs shows a thump of rain later. it's really impressive at this point how much precip we've had in general over the last year, and more precip to come in the next week or two.

Dendrite-less Actually thought I’d stay frozen longer, but ‘tis life along the fall line.

Still snow here by cabin John

still dendrites here. no sleet yet, but i'm probably too close to the city to escape it.

i'm not entirely convinced that initial sleet line means it's going to stay as sleet. rates might hold it off some or cause it to switch back and forth for a while.

jeep soft top dusting already.

the rates vs precip type was mentioned in the forecasts. since we're clearly a precip town now, it wouldn't surprise me if wave 1 overperforms.

yea, we'll need a better vort pass than what's shown, but it's not impossibly north.

true, and i'd be lying if i said i don't like how the radar looks for round 1 even down towards the cities. would be kinda funny if we overperform on this initial batch. i think in general we've overperformed on precip for the last 6-9 months, so i don't see why this one won't do the same barring temps.

just looked at the gfs...next weekend has a rain to snow look/potential. maybe that it'll be the start of a better pattern to close out winter.

next week has my attention.

overperformer is pretty debatable this year up to this point. yes, we have overperformed on a few events that we knew would be snow to some degree (nov/jan/the clipper), but we've left a lot of precip on the table as well. take away that jan storm and this winter is a legendary underperformer when compared to the expectations going in. but this is also why this winter can't be graded until its completed. if it ended as-is, it's a C+ for me (with a lot of weight placed on the jan storm), but 1-2 more decent snows can bring totals above normal in a number of spots. long story short, the final grade on this winter is TBD.

i haven't been very interested in this one. the setup is pretty terrible for wave 2. retreating airmass with a 500 low moving through michigan. i'd feel much better about cad if this was an apps runner, but this is a straight up GL cutter (per gfs). wave 1 is what we need to hang our hats on, or a much weaker, more southerly primary. those options are still possible, but the trend needs to happen asap.

word of the day...cutter. march will be epic.

wave 2 is pretty ugly in general, but wave 1 has an overperformer look as far as temps are concerned. hopefully there's enough precip to take advantage of it before the next wave cuts west.

what you're saying is i should do a backflush on my jeep's heater core sooner than later (just had to replace the radiator and thermostat...fun times).

closed h5 lows through chicago aren't a good sign here.

i wasn't as disappointed in march 2001 as i thought i'd be. this was before i knew about weather boards, but the fact that i was able to shoot hoops in shorts and a tshirt the day before was a yellow flag for me. some of the worst busts were in the 80s/90s when they'd call for a winter storm watch or warning and you'd wake up to a non accumulating rain/snow mix lol. i think it was before models were able to pick up on how much the appalachians destroy clippers and weak lows here.

i'm in the "not too interested in that" camp as well, but on the bright side, it does provide a glimmer of hope that the transition to mix/rain gets delayed. if it starts as rain, that ain't good.