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87storms

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Everything posted by 87storms

  1. 87storms
    You must not have been here for that one lol. Light snow was predicted at the 5pm newscasts. 6-10” was on the ground by the morning.
  2. 87storms
    The weekend rule is a force of nature.
  3. 87storms
    Think I’m gonna end up with over 0.5” today. Gonna put a little dent on the remaining snow mounds.
  4. 87storms
    The whole setup is pretty weird. Must be a traffic jam forming with all those vorts flying around. One of them is even moving nnw from Wisconsin to Canada lol.
  5. 87storms
    Yea, this run was a half step towards other guidance. Let’s face it, the euro model suite is all that matters at this range. Need that to shift west very soon.
  6. 87storms
    Seems like every model wants to pop a legit coastal. The problem is gfs is like 150 miles west of the consensus.
  7. 87storms
    Temps have been busting low it seems all week.
  8. 87storms
    It’s too late in the season for wimpy snowstorms. Mecs or above is the only option.
  9. 87storms
    Euro ai h5 track is actually pretty good though tbh
  10. 87storms
    This is gonna be a good system to gauge whether the gfs is on some bs or onto something.
  11. 87storms
    I could see us getting snow from the upper level low setup, but the coastal may cause some aches and pains, even more so than the 4v4 hoops seshes I’ve been playing lately.
  12. 87storms
    Dc getting more snow than Frederick makes this even more believable. I’m in.
  13. 87storms
    Joining an indoor gym this winter (for basketball) is turning into a forward thinking decision.
  14. 87storms
    Gfs wants to give OC one of its greatest snowstorms on record.
  15. 87storms
    In a zonal flow, yes. I miss the days when we’d get an easy west to east system that redeveloped over the TN Valley.
  16. 87storms
    I wouldn’t go that far lol, but it has improved. I can recall numerous winter storm watches and warnings growing up that ended up being a bust for a variety of reasons (downsloping, temps, etc.). Models didn’t seem to handle the impacts of terrain very well.
  17. 87storms
    I’m starting to crave another Feb 87. That storm had elite, top tier rates that overcame a mild day leading into it. 1-3” was forecasted and we ended up with a foot.
  18. 87storms
    March is gonna be epic… Match Madness, that is.
  19. 87storms
    I was hoping for a more classic torch this week, but seems to be favoring cooler than expected so far.
  20. 87storms
    We need an El Niño in the worst kinda way.
  21. 87storms
    45 degrees here. Way too cold outside today.
  22. 87storms
    Yes.
  23. 87storms
    Eh, gotta see the data to see how much to weigh that type of median change. I think it would be more fruitful to take the interquartile range and get the average from that, so there’s no outliers skewing things.
  24. 87storms
    Yea, but that’s why the confusion matrix exists. In machine learning, having a 90% accuracy is fruitless if you’re missing all the true positives (leading to 0% precision and 0% recall). Likewise, if you say it’s gonna snow all the time, you’ll catch all the true positives (snowstorms), but even though your recall will be 100%, your accuracy and precision will be 10%. F1 score is a key metric in weather forecast scoring, I would imagine.
  25. 87storms
    I will say though that to my surprise one of the basketball courts near me is now 99% dry…which was actually surprising, though it does get some good sun (when there’s sun). Fog eating snow might actually be a thing. Really won’t be much left of this snowpack by next weekend.
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