87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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Valid point. That would be our path to victory, I think. NC won’t Iike that, but this is a competitive sport and I only care about the dmv.
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Can’t get anything to go negative tilt when we need it to. Prob related to a lack of blocking which im assuming is at least partially due to an overactive northern stream. I need to do more research on indices…others here have way more knowledge on that.
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The fun part is knowing that it can still trend south. We need an active subtropical jet in the absolute worst kinda way. When was the last 6”+ snowstorm in Frederick? Maybe 2019? I was still in Bethesda and we got rocked with that one.
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I want to be invested, but that hp is a force. Are we relying on some lead frontrunning precip etc for this one? I feel like this has ots potential. I’m actually not even sure how precip is making it as far north as depicted given the setup.
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This one is for the southern crew. I’d be hyped if I was in Central Va.
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We need a hp to the north of us, not over top of us lol.
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I don't remember seeing that type of aggressive warm nose in the soundings for FDK. Looked like for the first few hours, temps were around freezing all the way up.
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Jinxes are bs, but superstition is legit. I bought my last jeep in Nov '13. If things don't trend better soon, I might get another one.
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This is the one, unless it’s the next one. Gonna need to rely on a Jan 30, 2010 situation. That system is way too far south rn.
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I thought snow tv at minimum for a couple hrs for northern md based on several soundings I looked at.
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Well that easy 1-2” became difficult. So basically if almost every model is showing rain, then that’s probably a sign that it’s not cold enough upstairs.
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This might be an easy 1-2” here. It’s cold out.
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Dew point is favorable, too
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Rt 15 special incoming
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Just got a workout in and it’s definitely anti-torch outside, unlike in March when we’d easily blast into the upper 40s/low 50s. I’m becoming more bullish. My bar is an inch on all elevated surfaces.
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Correction, Im actually 400’, but dt Frederick is 350’. There’s been a few storms where I can see snow on the top of gambrill. I have a feeling this might be one of them. Tomorrow morning should look cool, regardless.
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I’m in the Whittier area…right at the edge of where elevation increases (and falls lol). Only 7 miles to the top of the Watershed. It’s pretty wild how much of a difference a few hundred feet can make here. You’re in a good spot for this one.
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It’s exciting if it does snow, but I’m not sold on it here lol. Your location is better in general for seeing frozen. My elevation is only 350’. Actually, downtown Frederick proper isn’t really that good at snow…we average less than upper Moco. The higher elevations of Frederick are a different geo. That said, I would “think” it would start as snow areawide given the overnight onset, but like you said it’s day 1 of met winter and not our wheelhouse.
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How are the cherry blossoms doing?
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Welp, looks like I’ll need to drive up Hamburg Rd again to see snow. 1k ft elevation is the new 500.
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Yea, low level cold air can take forever to scour out. The issue is upstairs. That hp is just racing east, so there’s not gonna be much resistance to the waa. I think an inch stat starter would be a win in this setup.
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We are who we thought we were
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I think 1-2" is reasonable here...I'm a mile west of rt 15 which, given how this area is, means I'm basically east of rt 15 lol. The top of Catoctin might be a winter wonderland, though. That area just absolutely dominates in these marginal events.
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The overlook at Black Rock is one of the finer ones I've seen around here. It's a bit of a slog to go that extra distance from the base past Annapolis Rock, but kinda worth it, if time isn't a thing.
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That’s not that early, especially for the n/w burbs. In 3 months it’ll be March lol.
