You’re not wrong, but I have a hunch the cold air is overdone. The better gfs runs show ~1040 high instead of near 1050. Chicken egg thing…is that causing the Baja low to spin itself out or is the low shearing out allowing the hp to overwhelm. I’ll let you know next Monday.
I could absolutely see this being a delayed, but not denied storm where we end up cashing in on the 2nd half when the southern stream wave enters the gulf. Pd2 was kind of a two parter as well with a very minor event that Friday evening before the big show Sunday morning.
Currently in a PI refinement session. I tried to start the convo off talking about the upcoming snowstorm. Worked for a couple mins…but yea, paychecks are important, too.
I’d like the TPV further west. Probably my biggest concern tbh. But also not convinced the bitterly cold temps/suppression will be realized. I still like my goal of 4-6” lol
The gfs isn’t exactly a flush hit up here. Not saying it won’t happen, but certainly my part of the subforum isn’t a lock yet. I need to see better consensus from the big dog models.
The upper level flow is still very much NS dominant. Your idea of the southern stream energy coming out in pieces makes more sense than one big storm imo and, frankly, is what the h5 map shows on the gfs. We’re up against atmospheric memory rn.
It’s challenging based off the actual outcomes of the past few years lol. With that said…I have honked at the potential of this pattern, but we know the routine by now. Euro runs this ship, period.
4 storms hit my area in Bethesda at the time. We had that Jan 30 suppression that nudged north, Feb 2, the mothership event on Feb 5-6 and the screamer/mauler on Feb 10. Pretty wild in hindsight.