87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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Fine...I'm in.
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What about the "use the model with the least amount of snow" rule? I'm still not fond of that PV placement. I guess I'm hoping for a hecs with the bowling ball ull is further south. A mecs sounds awesome, though.
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Or getting 3" near the base of the Catoctin's while the mixing bowl gets 6.
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It’s a straight up blizzard. H5 is a bowling ball through New England
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We take
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Miller B's be annoying
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Hard to tell what the path to victory is here. If the upper level energy is too far north, we're looking at a Miller hybrid or B (which seems to be what's being modeled)...if it's further south, it might work out better for the southern crew, but leave those to the north with a nasty gradient again. I guess we need everything to be a little further west?
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Definitely noticing the later sunsets.
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No pace and space hoops in this weather…it’s gotta be 80s style.
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Just loop it from here…vorts up top are all over the place… https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025021318&fh=132
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Kind of a weird run...almost seems toss'able.
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There's definitely one helluva block to the north.
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Makes sense re not having that 2nd upper level low...good point on that. I'm all in on a warning level event.
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I don’t love seeing the bowling ball look up top over the upper Midwest/GL associated with the polar vortex/blocking high. Seems like it’ll squash any energy more so than provide an opportunity for overrunning or phasing until it weakens.
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Downtown Frederick doesn’t get too much more snow than DC due to it being in a valley and I think averages a little less than the Clarksburg area. Catoctins fare better, though. In general, we just haven’t had the right pattern, maybe in some ways related to the drought conditions the last couple summers.
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I’m not the one who should answer, but the questions are interesting and I’m waiting on sushi rn. For #2 I think that’s where ai/ml would add value (since it should be based more so on what usually occurs instead of what should) and definitely agree on #3 regarding the euro. It just seems like an all around dominant model.
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Finally got out to quasi measure…might have weaseled our way to 3” here overnight.
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Sure is a lot of blocking up top...not much southern stream influence, though? Looks like a congrats, southern crew.
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Latest spotter reports… https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow Looks like the Gfs and Nam were generally overdone north of dc. Looking at a few runs leading up to the event, the euro and Canadian kept the 0.5” precip line closer to dc. Not sure of final qpf here, but I imagine it was closer to 0.3” than 0.5”.
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Back into light/steady here…little more misty out.
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Yea, I think the 70 crew might stay in the light stuff for an extended period. Roads are going to be a mess in the morning.
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We might get a couple more inches simply through consistency. Nam keeps some precip around in the northern tier into the morning...tbd on that, but could end up stat padding the totals a bit.
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One thing I noticed that Frederick does well is finding a way to get at least a slice of most storms that are either too far north or south. Light snow continues...streets are caving. Delayed and mostly denied...but not completely.
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Dude, it might have been 0.8” tbh lol
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Definitely slick af out, even here. I was doing the shuffle. Need proper shoes rn
