87storms

La Nina might be waking up. It was a good run, though. That said, I do kinda buy the sneaky late season snow idea.

The chiefs are like the Jordan Bulls. They win when they want to win and coast when they want to coast.

It's a miracle that they're only down by 2 scores. Way too many turnovers, but give the Eagles credit...they're mostly "play-making" turnovers.

I need to learn that Jayden is legit and that the Commanders are not the Wizards.

Definitely need a couple pieces each on O, D and ST. Fun season but they’ve won a bit too much on luck and it’s catching up. Time to level up in the offseason

lol at going for 2. They fell into the a yard closer fallacy. Thanks refs

McLaurin is cold. HOF caliber talent

Commanders are weathering the storm.

January thaw has arrived.

Think this one might come down to Barkley.

It's going to ramp up once that SER gets going. Sun angle season should help, too.

Most important game in Commanders history since last week. Think this one might come down to kicking.

Spring training, March Madness, and cherry blossoms. That is all.

Chance is right...monthly anomaly "averages" can be misleading. All it takes is one timely storm to overcome a less than ideal average height pattern and, of course, untimely shortwaves can ruin a good one. The challenge is that upcoming patterns are unlikely to turn out the way we want, so comparing something that might happen to something that already did, will add even more overthinking. I can see why looking at the large scale features (MJO, NAO, etc.) and placing bets on that would be a better game to play than just hoping for a proposed H5 pattern to deliver (since that's still a moving target beyond 7-10 days). I'm brainstorming...mostly just taking a break from doing my weekly status report lol.

Thick frost alert

Will need to see how things shake out on the models by the weekend.

Thought I’d get a break from tracking, but now the gfs is showing a 1040+ hp and a bowling ball ejecting east.

Winter has shown its hand. I will not be mountain biking or playing a whole lot of basketball outside and that’s ok. My body needs a break anyway…and snow is awesome. There’ll be breaks and pattern relaxation…we’re not Montana…but yea, we’re 2 months deep now and the base state has been “winter”.

It’s deep winter stuff out there. Looks like our warm up isn’t gonna be all that warm.

Our snowfall forecasts are in trouble.

Looks like a slow tracking period the next few days with some tracking ramping up this weekend for that late week potential.

When it's snowing in Buda and New Orleans, we've got ourselves a winter.

Yea, on the flip side, we’re capable of getting scraped by all of those scenarios lol. We’re not good at extreme weather…that’s just not our location…but otherwise we’re pretty versatile.

Just saw New Orleans is at 3-5" as well. I guess the next question is how much does the pattern relax after this arctic air intrusion. Can we winter it for another 2 months?

Yea, the term AI is loose…even ChatGPT is based off ml, but for forecast models the output is a forecast, not a snippet of Python.