87storms

I guess if there’s a chance for it to be right, this storm might be it, simply because of the fringe temps.

I found the nam to be generally unreliable for precip throughout the summer, so I just started using the gfs. It’s good for scoping out potential banding and I suppose temps, but that’s about it imo. I want it to be right, but I’m a veteran now…it’s hard to fool me lol.

I'm about a mile west of Rt 15. I'm going to count this as being west lol. Edit: I'm technically almost 2 miles nw of Rt. 15, so I'm definitely considering that meteorologically west.

Backloaded winter...March is gonna be epic.

Why is it the surface low is ideal, but the mid-levels are a mess? I don't feel like this is just a "it's just not cold enough" situation. To me, it seems like we just simply lack blocking due to a consistently messy Pacific and/or Atlantic...flip a coin.

This thread is becoming increasingly important...it's clear that we need to call a timeout and make some in game adjustments. It's go time.

The fun part is that it keeps trending worse. Best chance at this point is that either (a) the bleeding stops, and/or (2) cad is underdone. The upper air pattern is not ideal. Honestly, looking at it, I wouldn't even think we'd get snow from it, but luckily we have at least some residual cold air to work with. It'll be interesting to see how the storm ultimately plays out, but I'd be ok with it just simply starting as snow at this point east of the Blue Ridge.

finally getting some breaks in the clouds...barely. Those stratocumulus decks have been an absolute pill the last couple of weeks.

Maybe this is the anti-January 3, 2022 storm.

I think Frederick is going to need to rely on the rolling hills from Germantown to Urbana to act as a force shield from the milder air.

The busy northern stream has been an issue all year long. Just look at how cloudy it’s been for damn near 2 weeks now while I see clear skies often times into central VA and NC. The problem is we’ve generally been on the south side of that upper level flow. I really want to see a clipper show up. Not having those is a sign that we’re still not able to get that NS to dig far enough south, which is also evident from the lack of phasing with the SS.

The issue the last few days seems to be with the low level winds out of the south and east as that ridge slides off the coast. I think we’re gonna need cad to be under-modeled. Frederick still seems to be in the game, but closer to the fall line you’re really gonna need to fend off that easterly wind component.

Yea we’re no longer waiting on the wheelhouse…we’re in it now. March is right around the corner, which is kinda wild. This season has been trucking along.

I'm getting tired of tracking this system...is it gonna snow or not?

I'm only at around 350', but the elevation rises considerably as soon as I head north from my neighborhood. I've noticed that in some of the recent marginal events, locations around 600-700' near the base of Gambrill will have basically nothing, but once you get up to 1000', any light rain/mix will change to snow. It's kinda wild how much of a difference the top of the Watershed is compared to the base of that mountain. Even though downtown Frederick is relatively low elevation, I think the fact that it's in a valley and surrounded by some of the ridges to the south, helps with these setups.

Oh yea, it's a thing. That area is a microclimate.

This feels like one of those storms where Rockville could get a few inches while dc is mixing. Darnestown/Germantown is also another snow magnet that seems to do significantly better than Rockville…at least back in the day. I’m still learning about Frederick, but maybe this is the storm where I finally benefit from this move in the snow department.

Just keep in mind that each isotherm line has a positive slope because air generally cools with height. It’s a little counter intuitive at first. You also don’t want the parcel at the mid level heights to poke through the 0C line (ie, where melting occurs) for too long.

lol, I wonder how much sleet is really gonna be at play with this one. Seems like mostly a rain or snow situation, but I could be wrong.

It’s dicey up here, too. I’m kinda surprised at the model snow output, all things considered…but I’ll take it.

I don’t hate having the 8.9” value directly over my place.

Tell them the closer we get to the storm the less the uncertainty, and the curve on a graph takes on the look of a reciprocal function. And the overall happiness meter after each model run during the winter (theta = 90 degrees = 6z increments) is the output of the function y=sin(theta).

The 12z and 18z model suite might be the most important runs in the last 2 years.

That follow-up wave is becoming the main show. It's actually a hecs-level looking vort lol. If we can get that to trend south, then it's game on.

I gotta think areas closer to the M/D line are in good shape...I'm actually not really even that concerned up here (though I probably should be lol). I think it's the 95 corridor that is going to be the most challenging forecast. I grew up in Silver Spring, so I know exactly what that's all about.