87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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At least it's cold and windy outside rn.
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Weak low and ots. Never was thrilled about that look.
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I think the lack of clippers is a clue as to what's going on upstairs.
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I'm glad I lived in Bethesda in Jan 2019...got shellacked by that ull (2nd part) of the storm...had at least 8" from that one. Not sure how Frederick fared between 2016 and 2021, but I don't think I've actually received 6" since I moved here. Was looking at previous pics and measured 5.5" from that early Jan 2022 event (so maybe 6 with a snowboard), but less than 6 with compaction.
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Spring sounds majestic rn.
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It's over. The southern stream energy runs out ahead of the ull which doesn't close off south enough. How's next week looking?
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Just saw the 6z gfs and euro...this may have been mentioned already (I have to work today, so I'm not through 5 pages of bs), but seems like they actually ticked further south with the upper level energy which is exactly what we need to have any chance at this storm getting captured. I'm not out yet...like 85% out.
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I’m ready for spring.
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This storm isn’t even a bust lol
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I know the wind was legit today bc two of my friends (who aren’t that into weather) told me a microburst came thru Bethesda and Glenwood.
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Ravens, how many threads do we need for this storm lol. Reel it in, dude.
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I get it…I’m a lowly hobbyist…however, one thing I’ve learned is to try to analyze the atmosphere from the top down. That’s why I didn’t get snookered this time. Never really liked the northern stream look with this one as we typically want closed lows to be at our lat or south. Of course, that’s not a rule, but it’s helped me stay cautious at 5 day leads.
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Yea, I’d rather see a cold, dense surface high in the northeast resulting in overrunning than a tpv that doesn’t have much in the way of energy rounding the bend because it’s just gonna push the boundary too far east (I think).
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Yea it’s getting shunted ots. Way too much blocking.
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Yea I noticed that too…by 6 hrs maybe. Might help get ahead of the bowling ball a bit…or it’s just speeding up every feature.
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Fine
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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
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Btw…a great disco by lwx explaining the latest trends and that it’s not necessarily a wrap yet.
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Just heard a couple rumbles of thunder which is unacceptable in February, so I’m now ok with a 4-6” snowfall…which is still in play.
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Thunder and pouring.
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Looks like something is on my doorstep.
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We know the model runs will vary at this range, otherwise we’d just look at one and tune back in on Wednesday. Most models have shown a bias for there to be too much dry air on the nw flank of this system. I still think it could fill in with the upper level energy moving thru, but the idea that there’s an ots system that might not phase properly has been there for the last couple days.
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You only bring up this topic when snow is taken away lol
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Next
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24 hr QPF 0.5" line is south of DC and significantly worse than 6z...I'd be surprised if that much snow falls. The system gets going too late.
