87storms

Lol, honestly wasn't even thinking about it. That storm really didn't bother me...it was an obvious sketchy setup. I've been doing this hobby too long and knew it had "wide right" potential. I would even say "01" didn't bother me much either. It was like almost 60 degrees the day before, so that was also becoming sketchy. I'd say "13" was the most annoying one because it was our last chance to break the snow drought that season. Once you realize that our average high temp in January is 10 degrees above freezing, it all starts to make sense. When it snows here, ya just gotta enjoy it.

The temp outside is what I would call "snow cold". This system goes to show that all we need is it to be cold enough. This isn't even much of a precip producer...we get these at least once a week on average (literally).

If you guys think Boxing Day was bad, try growing up in the 80s and 90s. It seemed like every winter had at least one failed event, usually because of the mountains and/or temps. Models are way better now. That said, there were also a lot more surprises to cancel things out.

I don’t trust the nam at all lol. It is not to be relied upon for nailing down where a precip max is. It’s much better at identifying the orientation of the precip and that there “will” be a max.

This system kinda reminds me of a stalled front that we had around ‘00. Ended up being a thin stripe of snow from sw to ne right through central md…probably got several inches from it. Once the coastal took over, the line collapsed east.

My only concern is that light precip traversing the mountains isn’t the best setup, but we have temps on our side, so that should offset any disorganized/scattered radar returns that we’ll likely end up seeing without an organized low. Every flake will count.

The trough looks too far east..."for now", it has the look of a classic Miller B aka congrats Maine to Nova Scotia.

Wind is crankin' again.

I don't think you can use correlation to get a probability. The 0.12 is also a pretty low correlation/dependency, though 0.43 is a decent signal implying a better chance for frozen vs liquid, if true.

Yea, looks like an overnight through Tuesday morning event, per 12z Euro.

Looks like by midnight, the whole area is under light/steady snow. DC showing a coating already. 0.2-0.4" precip areawide, lifting out by noon.

It's rippin' here lol. Snow squalls are fun.

Premium grade snow shower.

Snow clouds (it’s got that color) are rolling in here.

Just saw the radar and had to visit this thread lol. I find the snow can lag behind from west to east during these types of show showers/squalls.

I wonder if a 50/50 also allows more room for a high pressure to form in the northeast which helps draw in Atlantic moisture. Otherwise, I guess we need to rely more so on the gulf. The Monday/Tuesday system doesn’t seem to have that banana high look, though the 6z gfs did for the late week setup.

Looks like it's essentially a frontal boundary with a few pieces of energy riding the wave...with the strength of each vort determining the outcome. I'm expecting "periods of light snow" in the forecast for 24 hours.

I trust it because it knows about the Catoctin snow magnet.

Looks like it's almost entirely based off of the interaction between the TPV and the main vort that doesn't even enter the WC until Wednesday. Needless to say, there's still time.

Southern stream is still visible on the 18z, so that's encouraging. Whether there's a vort or not, is the next question.

Well that was an aggressive gfs run.

At minimum, it seems like 12z has been a hold so far. Light event is still on the table.

Yea it’s been cranking here at times lol. Power just went out briefly, too.

12z Gfs still implies the potential for a coating to an inch somewhere along the 95 corridor.

Squall line to minor event to secs/mecs…that’s the upcoming lesson plan.