87storms

Yea I only recently found out about it. This is only the 2nd time I’ve been. It’s flowy and I do remember some sections with small rocks. Different layout than Schaeffer. I parked by the lake (south) and rode all the up to clarksburg (about 6.3 miles) then back down the road bc I was cooked lol.

schaeffer was actually closed monday due to wet/muddy conditions (which was annoying), so i went to black hill west and truth be told, it was fairly dry lol. sounds like i might have just lucked out.

Hmm, yea I guess I just expected it to be more damp/muddy, though a flood watch also implies the ground is already saturated so maybe it was just drier at the surface where I was biking (northern moco).

i haven't paid attention to the water table, but it might be needed. ground seemed fairly dry when i went biking the other day...more so than in recent weeks.

it's fascinating to me how many people are so desperate to refute man made climate change and its impacts. i have an idea...why don't we just pretend it exists just to be on the safe side?

oh trust me, i'm too much of a veteran at this point to get into keyboard warrior mma lol. i wasn't even trying to spark that type of a debate. i was legit stating facts that (1) it's been warmer the last couple years and (2) the right (which by the way, many of my family members are) are very, very stuck in their ways/mindsets. (2) can be taken as a zinger, but it's really not. just speaking truths from my own experiences.

...also, i actually still wouldn't be surprised if we break this type of a pattern with a legitimate snowstorm. there have been cold shots, just few and far between.

lol based off of some of the other conversations i've read all winter, i think i'm being real tame. also, i'm just speaking facts...or at least i try to. the funny part is i never even said man made climate change...i just said global warming and then someone assumed i was indicating it's all man made. fact of the matter is that it's been warmer the last couple years. that was my point and that it might take time to break that type of a pattern. trust me, i'd much rather talk about sports and weather.

i'll never understand the purpose of arguing against man made climate change. at the very least, we'll have a cleaner planet. not saying i'm mr. green, but it's always concerning to me when there's people that simply don't even want to believe it could possibly exist. anyway... how about that dog and pony show last night???

the other option is to act like we have only one planet to live on, but it sounds like you'd rather just omit the impacts from the industrial revolution on the atmospheric since, you know, it's such a small fraction of earth time. before commenting on this topic, at least do some research on carbon footprints, etc. also, no kleenex needed...i actually don't even like the cold (though i do love snow, go figure). i do, however, have more faith in the people who study this topic for a living and do have concerns on what the longterm impacts of global warming could be. wish more people would at least entertain the idea that it matters.

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at. the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

one thing i've noticed this season as a very novice hobbyist is that the upper level pattern has not been ideal. we're in need of a good vort pass with the 540 line under us. i know that's not a requirement especially for an overrunning situation, but the 500 maps just have not had that classic or even decent look which makes sense given the surface temps have also been mostly above normal. when you sit and think about the pattern we've had for the last 2 years and leading into this winter it really isn't that surprising that we've been pretty much skunked. this past summer was loaded with 90+ days, so it makes sense that it'll take some time to get back to square one. on the bright side, this type of a dud winter should increase the chance of next winter not being quite as lame, but mother nature will decide that, not the euro.

I’m interested in that Saturday junx, but it is a little hard to believe we can get accumulating snow a couple days after a prolonged soaker. Just don’t see that often here. We usually need a little more time in between systems, but I’m rooting for it.

the fact that the LR thread covers a whole month and not mid month to mid month is already good vibes. that was bothering me. also...went biking today. ground was drier than i expected. if it's not going to snow, then i'm ok with these periodic incredible weather days.

on the bright side, this winter has allowed me extra time to practice my jump shot.

that's just the product of the milder pattern and not having any kind of blocking to nudge those systems into the Midwest/plains. this winter is a dud so far and the reason i'm saying that is because there's been almost no digital snow within 5 days to track. that's a sure sign of it being simply too warm/not enough blocking. still 1.5 months left of legitimate snowable climo, but it ain't gonna snow if it ain't cold enough lol.

There’s no doubt global warming has/could trim off some of our fringe snow events, but I also agree there could be more biggies (higher water vapor content, etc). I definitely don’t agree with other posts about our snow climate being like Raleigh’s. We’re more like Cincinnati.

Yea that’s a good point re indices. It would end up being the same result since indices are just another way of explaining what the current conditions are. With precip being essentially a weekly event here, I still think tracking cold/overall patterns is a better vibe. Those are the topics I’ve been gravitating towards (pna, nao, etc). With the Pacific being our enemy this year, it sounds like we may need an atmospheric traffic jam to shunt some of that milder air south.

it's an interesting topic, actually. relying on probabilities that far out is also assuming models can accurately portray probabilities that far out. i'm not sure what feeds those stats. if indices play a role in the formulas, then i think that's more reliable than ensembles. otherwise, it's going to change a lot from run to run.

it seems like we're in the "let's see if reverse psychology will make it snow" portion of our snow drought.

i still think the weekend threat has room to move north if that ss vort can slow down a notch, but temps are definitely not ideal. mght need a wrapped up, feb 87 system to succeed with this one. we need a better look up top in regards to cold/hp (where the clippers at??), otherwise we're going to continue wasting precip.

need that NS wave to dig further west

yea, i thought the canadian has handled this system pretty well. a few days ago it was showing the potential for a flatter system/less phasing with the trough being too far east.

no probs. not replying is completely valid in that case. unfortunately, i'm not as good with that as i should be. lol

the blizzard of 2016 was so awesome that i've been ok with a several year meh period of winter, but yea it's time for a snowstorm. at minimum, hopefully next year is a more classic winter.