87storms

i feel similarly about my time spent tracking the wizards/skins lol. the nba is truly still a superstar league and the wft/skins/hogs/red wolves/whatever they're gonna be need to figure out who's going to be their starting qb. re weather...the analysis part is fun...the lack of control is not. learning can kinda cancel that out and make you more wise about picking which storms to invest time in.

kinda surprised that poster even has an account. that wasn't a spelling mistake yesterday and he's done it before.

Nam’s higher resolution could be keying in on the heavier band and chopping off the expanse of the lighter precip. I’d be concerned about temps the most further south. We’re relying on a helluva temp drop.

Looks like I’ll be tracking light snow up here on the nam lol. There’s a couple of ways this storm could bust so need to stay wise re expectations. 12z globals will be kinda important.

Yea gotta think the boundary is setting up further north and west than expected…or just slower to move in.

Approved

Lol I’m just a ba though do fill in for my sm. Definitely don’t think I’d want that job. Need to have some legitimate referee skills. I mostly feel bad for the devs because we have a deliverable around that timeframe though I think I need to present this time. It is what it is. re weather…agreed. Snow on snow for dc would be cool. We’re still pretty decent at jan/Feb.

not sure, no thunder, but pretty heavy rain shower.

in other news, the radar looks pretty interesting right now.

now that's a lot more fun than tracking the edge of light snow.

we don't do denver very well, but then again there's always feb 87 and commutageddon to rely on.

the late week threat pops a surface low in a pretty good spot, but would like to see the trough a little further west and an earlier development. monday seems a little more of a wishcasting event, but either way both are a nice diversion from having to prep for PI planning the following week (if you work in agile you'll know what i'm talking about).

i just meant for this storm lol. i like the idea of a better pattern showing up as we get into mid january. honestly, i'm ready to have some weather to track, rain or snow...though it's winter, so gotta root for the crystals.

this one needs to start the nw trend asap.

if the gfs is right and we get a north trend, it would be a major snowstorm here imo. 500 is almost a perfect pass. the question is whether it's believable with cold air chasing the precip. i hope it's right, though.

it just seems to lack consistency and is a day behind the euro (generalizing). i mean, the gfs literally showed a major snowstorm in richmond yesterday, then backed off at 06z and now it looks like it's showing it again. it just seems a little bouncier than the euro. not saying it isn't a good model (i'm sure the stats will show it as #2), but if you had only 1 model to rely on which would you choose?

gfs is just clearly not in the same league as the euro at 5 days out...it certainly needs the cmc or uk in its camp. would be interesting to know why the euro is so good.

there's some energy in the northern stream that seems to act as a kicker/suppressing the trailing wave on the models that have less impact here. not sure if that has to do with the southern energy being weaker or not, but it's noticeable on the nam as well (as in being similar to the gfs).

disregarding not lucking into a nov/dec snowstorm by now, the gfs does have some trackable systems through mid january...at least until it doesn't.

what i've noticed the most (and maybe i'm wrong here) is aside from accuracy comparisons, the euro just seems to have less run to run variation. it's not always right and maybe the gfs does some things better, but it does seem more consistent.

lol, the only trend is that there isn't one...at least until 0z.

gfs is a lot different with that sunday system. icon hints at something similar with a low forming along the front, but euro/canadian just push the front right through with very little precip after the main batch.

if it wasn't for moving and starting a new job this year, amongst other things, i'd probably care more, but at this point i'm just happy to be able to bike/hoop so deep into the season. i'm definitely craving a snowstorm, though. i don't think nina is gonna move too much this season (noaa has it lasting through prime), but the pacific seems active enough that maybe a well timed zonal vort could work out, if nothing else.

Makes sense. Looks like banking on La Niña to dominate the prime winter is a pretty decent bet, but a few tweaks to the pattern could allow for better chances. At this point, as a weather enthusiast it would be nice to have a storm of any substance to track.

only a met can answer that, but the trough has been out west (it's been stormier and colder there lately) and we've been lacking a storm track that can tap into the gulf or atlantic. it's just been mostly remnant systems taking too far north of a track for this area. seems like this is a pretty textbook la nina so far with the jet stream a little further north than we want. i can see why people would prefer a +pna in this setup and why we'd also want an atlantic that isn't going to make things dicey along the fall line (rain to snow zones). i've just started reading more into this, but i think we want the mjo to cycle through 7/8 to allow for a more active southern stream.