87storms

i think checking the models for digital snow beyond 5 days is still pretty much a time passer without much to show for it, but the oscillations are worth monitoring and +AO/-PNA isn't going to help things. we just need to hope that we enter our wheelhouse of snow (i think it's early jan thru feb) with the indices in our favor, otherwise we're relying even more on luck than normal. as far as dec/march is concerned, i can't imagine global warming is going to help us in that regard considering we're already a fringe snowtown to begin with, though i certainly can see the storms being more robust moving forward, so there's that.

we had such a long run of wet/mild and even hot over the summer that i'm actually impressed we were able to switch so quickly in the fall to a pattern that could even remotely support snow. that said, i feel like we're only at normal/typical now and may need another favorable pattern nudge to get into a wintry pattern. nov/dec were pretty weak in the snow department, but they normally are, so i don't think we've wasted much during that transition period from a record breaking summer to a pattern that could support snow given the right track.

the feb storm was wild. extreme rates overnight that overcame a mild sunday, and knocked out power for days due to the heavy accumulation that stuck to everything. wish some of the historical radars went back that far. that storm is in the KU book as well. the jan storms were more of the powder variety.

i remember it being a bit of a slow starter here in the evening. it wasn't until the coastal took over the next day that the rates were legit.

that storm sucked, but i had a feeling (miller b) that it could be a letdown. i didn't feel confident in march 2001 either considering i was playing basketball in shorts and a tshirt the day before the storm was developing. the march bust from a few years ago was pretty bad in large part due to the timing of it (in a snow drought leading in and knowing that would be the last real chance of the season).

the 500 map at least on the gfs was not very inspiring. the energy in the west just splits off and takes their own path east. need at least a partial phase.

looks like the best forcing is to the nw of the city through northern md, but still clips dc. i'd feel better in loudon/frederick for this one for the elevation as well, but still think dc/bmore should get at least a light snow out of this.

pretty decent moisture fetch: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=12 gotta fight some dry air, but all systems go for the first legitimate light snow of the season.

Certainly cold enough outside. Probably not much will stick on the roads except under moderate rates but I expect a wintry scene in the morning. Gotta bank on another precip overachiever with the first batch bc precip amounts are somewhat meager.

I still like the every 5-7 year blizzard we get here but I think my preference is 8-12” warning level. Not enough to completely shut things down but enough to feel like it’s a legitimate snowstorm. The one last January here was pretty good.

Think I meant sub posts. I got confuzzled.

I still think you’d find the ratio of snow to precip to not be very good at least closer to the fall line. Our best years have plentiful cold bc we can luck into precip here. We do that part pretty well for the most part. Cold air...not as well. So far this season I feel like we’re on the right side of chilly, but need this type of pattern in Jan/feb as well.

re my comment in the long range thread...give us the cold and we'll find a way to snow at some point. we're veterans at precip. so far, there's a lot to like if you're a fan of winter. me? honestly, i don't like the cold lol, but i know we generally need a sustained colder pattern for snow so i'm willing to negotiate for a few months.

yea i'm just saying skipping around threads can be annoying sometimes lol. there's also sometimes that gray area between relevant chatter and banter. i mean, it's fine as-is, but i do think subthreads wouldn't suck. the idea of replying from one thread into another isn't a bad idea either, but might actually cause too much clutter in banter lol.

i think subthreads wouldn't be a horrible idea. not sure if this board even has that option, but i think that would allow some side chatter without pissing off the mods.

if you're ok with 90% of that being rain like last year than i think that's an ok rationale to take, but i'd rather have cold/dry sprinkled with the occasional snowstorm so that things aren't getting washed away within several days. it feels more like winter that way. we average close to 15" of precip from nov thru march. if even half of that was snow we'd be a ski town. the problem is almost always due to cold air resulting from lower elevation/atlantic air and just generally not being at a high enough latitude. i always tell people to expect 2-3 decent storms per year and that's about it, generally speaking. we snow here, but like others have said we really need things to break right.

i don't know that we need a wound up low. seems like our overrunning events have been mostly over producers for the last year+. not saying that'll pan out this time, but precip has not been an issue for a while now; cold air has.

Still a free car wash in Bethesda, though it is chilly.

Getting even a coating after starting out in the 50s and a soaking rain the day before would be an accomplishment around here. Also, an inch on the maps is what falls through the air. Cut that in half for what might stick. Still would be nice to see a period of snow and its early December with another threat possible next week.

I have absolutely no expectations beyond snow tv. We’re mild leading in and we have cold air chasing precip, not to mention starting out with wet ground. That said...it should be interesting to track and you gotta like how this season has started if you’re a snow/cold fan. And while my expectations are low, with the changeover start time looking like it’ll be at night and with rates good enough, it wouldn’t surprise me if grass, sidewalks, and parking lots get a coating.

Lol you beat me to it.

....and radar now looks very healthy. Setups and patience ftw.

Meanwhile radar is looking less than stellar at the moment, so that’s good preparation for winter. Win win.

yea, it looks like a fairly classic wintry setup, but just 1-2 months too early.

the redskins problem all along has been their inability to accept a longterm rebuild. snyder isn't a terrible owner as far as funding is concerned. he's ponied up the contracts. they've even drafted well at times, but it gets clouded by this win now mode that they're simply not ready for. i also think they need a new stadium location. their current spot has no soul/culture around it. the wizards are a mess, but at least you can go to the verizon center and enjoy the surrounding area. what's the real draw to spend an entire sunday at fedex? the redskins need to come up with a longterm vision including a new stadium even if it takes 2-3 bad years.