87storms

looks like a race between precip and arctic intrusion. probably want a slower trailing system, which appears to be the case compared to 6z. i could see how this could work out to a quick hitting snowstorm for at least parts of the mid-atlantic.

some pingers here. colder than i expected, but looks like the dews didn't drop enough overnight.

Got a petty good bike ride in at greenbrier today (doesn’t look they they had much rain yesterday). Trying to strike while the iron’s hot before La Niña relaxes a bit and the mjo/pna trend towards a better trough placement for mid January/beyond (if’s and maybe’s).

i moved to frederick over the summer and my jeep has 106k miles on it now (though i could use new tires)...it needs to snow. re 2013-2015...i personally think those are the gold standards for long winters here...certainly primo level. maybe not the snowiest region-wide, but i know there were frozen ponds/lakes/canals both seasons...especially by feb '15.

it's a west coast winter to start things off (though they could use the snow). hopefully they can share at some point because i am ready for a snowstorm, but the latest gfs run is not very inspiring. pretty unusual to enter january with hardly a trace of snow, which is indicative of the dry weather we've had overall (the drought thread is the real show right now). on the bright side, trails have been in great shape.

yea, both systems are running in tandem, but too much separation. need a diggier northern stream instead of a continuation of what we've seen for the last month or two. at least we've gotten a few days of sunshine. i'll take that over what we had for the last month even if it takes us out of the clipper game...because that wasn't working anyway.

2nd round of gusts moving through right now.

Looking healthy for Moco/hoco

The northern md crew will know when this moves through. Gusts were fairly brief but noticeable. Still breezy out there. Brief, welcoming shower.

Winds kicked up nicely with this line.

Looks like that line west of Hagerstown is the one to watch.

Radar looks miserable but maybe that line of storms depicted on the nam will come to fruition. This dry pattern has been tough to break. Could use the rain tho. The wind…not so much.

loving what i'm seeing for the upcoming forecast. it probably does need to rain, though. hit up little bennett yesterday and the trail was in superb shape. even the typical muddy areas were drying up. today: seeing some peeks of sun off of route 15. but still mostly cloudy and satellite indicates that'll probably be the case today...again.

yea, and i try to bike during the week, but the earlier sunset and work meetings is making that more challenging, so i'm relying on at least some vitamin D during the day.

good, i thought i was the only one here thinking this lol. i know some of my friends who i've bitched to have agreed with me that this weather pattern ain't it. either sunshine or snow is acceptable at this point...or a day of 70 and rain.

maybe you're just referring to those breaks we've had in the late afternoon because just about every single time i've checked the satellite loop it's the same pattern of clouds streaming in from the midwest through northern md/pa and northeast. wondering if it's been sunny at all in new york state for the last month lol.

i do see some very light flurries now. i'll just pretend a blizzard is incoming.

i didn't see any flakes here. looks like some echoes have been towards gambrill/catoctins, but i couldn't even see much virga there either. just a dry pattern overall. for the last month+ it almost seems like we've been on the southern edge of the northern jet (mets can correct me if i'm wrong)...too north for any substantial precip or even any consistent sunshine, and too far south for any chance of clipper scraps surviving the apps. this is why i'm ready for a pattern flip. looking forward to this weekend's weather.

we need to first get through this weekend's april event.

it's actually pretty legit at times...definitely could see why the wind advisory was posted.

definitely some legit gusts here, and then it'll be calm for a bit.

tempwise, i feel like this has been a pretty classic start to the season (minus today). it's just been a dry pattern overall which i can tell just from riding the trails recently. it's gonna be interesting to see how this season plays out. i saw that denver is in a snow drought as well. not sure what that means for the mid-atlantic, but we're not alone. need a more active southern stream as just about everyone has said and less reliance on upper midwest clipper scraps.

been getting some breezes/occasional decent gusts along gambrill/watershed for the last couple hours. hard to complain about the temps here. saw your post in banter...similar elevation gain here. goes from ~400 where i'm at to ~1200+ in about 10 minutes. the three saws trail is a good primer for how quick the elevation can change...uphill grinder and then a twisty downhill (or catovid for some rockier sections).

i can't say with certainty, but we usually get at least some minor events by mid december (especially in our better snow years)...even if it's a mix in the cities and chase-able snow in the north and west counties. i think i've seen like 2 snowflakes hit my windshield so far. that's mostly due to this predominantly drier pattern because we've had some chilly weather around. i think a pattern flip is needed. this one is way too NS dominant.

actually, looking at satellite it's clearer to the east. congrats 95.