87storms

well i hope you're wrong lol. but yea, gotta add trends to the equation. i'd be ok with a clean advisory event, though.

makes sense. what's your take on the tuesday system? assuming it trends towards weaker/drier as suggested, it looks like it has the best setup ahead of it. that said, with so many different waves it might be difficult for one wave to amplify/dominate. to my hobbyist eyes, it looks like it will be dependent on where the boundary sets up. further southeast would imply more wiggle room for a wave to jet through and not warm things up too much. too far north and you end up with toasty mids even with healthy surface temps (like saturday).

thing is with temps in the 20s (assuming that holds), then it really wouldn't take much precip to turn things into a skating rink sunday. tuesday does look interesting on the gfs. the latest cmc shows the squashed version. i would think suppression/weaker, but still workable system would make more sense, but we'll see what the 12z's have to say.

could be. hard to tell, but we've never exactly been a ski town even before all the climo talk, so any 1-2 degree difference is pretty huge here and really that played out to a tee the last couple of storms where upstairs was cold, but we had just enough above surface temps/thin layer to turn what could have been a 2-4/3-6" event (not including what was wiped off a snowboard, but what is actually currently on the ground) into a sloppy mess. elevation always mattered, but it might matter more going forward. it's an interesting topic, so not really trying to ruin the mood lol. hopefully one of the next systems can work out. edit: meant to reply to chris lol.

this winter reminds me of some of the 90s storms (aka mixy). it wouldn't surprise me if the generally above average atlantic temps (notably the gulf stream) are playing a role as well. i think there's something to be said about starting the season off cold from canada on down for snowpack and cooler water temps. if it's going to take longer in the season to get those variables to work in our favor, then feb could be even more of a prime climo here than before.

My friend a few miles north of olney has snow. Elevation dependent system rn.

Pretty impressive little ice storm right now. Pingers covering the street here.

true, and makes sense to trade him if they're all in on a reboot, though not sure if that's what they want yet. bertans is a sniper, but i didn't like that contract. i would have preferred that money spent on a more versatile forward like jerami grant. rui/deni are solid, but their athleticism doesn't pop out of the screen which is where the league is at right now...and if you don't have standout athleticism, you better be able to shoot well...and if you don't shoot well you better be a great defender.

yea, i like beal, but they could have fleeced a team for probably 2-3 lottery picks 2 years ago. i like russ, too, but i'd rather have my all stars in the backcourt and frontcourt (murray/jokic, etc.). at this point, leonsis might just let the season play out, hope for a high pick, and reevaluate.

re sports, the wizards defense is just completely unacceptable. i know t bryant is out, but 12-41 from threes is also silly. they've been trying too hard since the wittman days to be a small ball, warriors style offense and it's not working because they don't have the roster for it. i think they need to reboot, but i'd rather leonsis clean out the front office first. sheppard has made a couple of good moves, but they might need a fresh start with someone from the outside to create some type of synergy.

definitely a battle zone here. dews look better from north moco towards ellicott/north bmore. hopefully the heavier precip can do its work.

radar does look good for those that are able to fend off the pingers (occurring here).

this is the type of system that caused forecast busts back in the day (speaking in regards to the city/close in burbs). fringe temps and not a lot of energy with this wave, so combo the temps and the fact that their might be some downsloping/drying effects might be one of the reasons the models have jumped around even until now. first band moving through now...back to lighter snow. let's see what the next round does.

gfs might be a little better this run with the next week system. still lifts the southern wave too soon, though.

roll the dice. this one has a light/mod feel to it. not a ton of moisture. the weekend system doesn't quite have a high in the right spot, imo (though not off by much). the one next week looks like it has a chance, but it's just simply too early to know. the only trend i'm seeing is that each storm seems to have more moisture to work with.

looks like the best setup (on paper) that the gfs is dishing out right now. banana high to the north. plenty of moisture. euro is icy, though, and took a step back from 0z so we'll see what happens with that one.

yea, i'd definitely sign on for the raptor model. gotta see what euro has to say about all of this. we're close enough to tipoff to start reaching a consenus, at least for wave 1.

both waves still reach us and i don't see much change with the waa at 850, but looks like precip has been getting cut back slightly the last several runs. that might just be because there's not much of a surface reflection at all. the weekend system is the one that looks like it could trend better.

Yea it was a stretch actually past Raleigh and I think near or after Durham. It was several years ago. Had to drive through that one section to find something open, but it’s another thing to pay attention to if you’re planning a trip.

Lol I got lucky. Was driving through Raleigh once and they really got hit the night before. Gas stations were closed and I was on E but found one open. Close call, though.

ice storms can be unpleasant, even more so when you're driving around, low on gas and find stations are closed. they're fun from a weather perspective, but i'll take snow.

managed to stay snow since the flip around 7am. still have some rates moving through with this next band, but only so much it can accumulate with fringe temps. it is what it is. this is about what i expected tbh, though i did think bmore and areas further east would do better than they are.

Not sure about roads, but it’s accumulating on everything else atm. Should be a wintry scene this morning with the wet snow sticking to tree limbs.

Mostly, if not all, snow here now. Notable rates, too. Column just needed some time to cool.

yea, i think more so a couple days ago when it looked like it was trending stronger. i think the association with this one could have been just the quick thump in a short amount of time. 87 was around a foot in 6-8 hours. jan 2011 was a scaled down version of that.