87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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i like my spot for this system better than the last one, that's for sure.
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the nw trend is still a thing, though. happened last storm as well, but the northern tier needed too much work, too close to gametime.
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this was the anti elevation storm. the confluence/downsloping combo did not help the northern tier.
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yea, but seeing the precip developing in the tennessee valley is usually a good sign. if it's a quick mover then it wouldn't throw back as much moisture, but i think the miller b's that are the worst are the ones where the jet streams are a little more separated and syncing up too late. we'll see...hopefully it continues trending or at least holds.
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kinda looks like a hybrid anyway (like 75% B, or something like that)
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i'm ready to sign off on the nam. i don't need a blizzard right now. northern stream systems can work (like they can work in iowa). we just need a good vort pass underneath us to allow for a little bit of atlantic influence (gulf tap is a bonus).
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looks like the system will try to link with some residual energy down south. not sure of the specifics, but the gom doesn't look completely closed for business. probably need the jet dip a little further south/west, though.
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i'll be completely honest...i didn't mind coming back to bare ground, but only for a few more days. i'm pretty keyed in on the friday potential...assuming it's still there after 0z.
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drove down to bethesda on a "lunch break" to see what all the commotion is about. pretty snowy scene in cabin john. looked like about 4-5" there. pretty much nothing north of clarksburg/sugarloaf. worth noting that roads were basically fine the entire time with some slush on the side roads.
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lol, i think the trough is a little more neutral/negative on the canadian. hopefully 12z follows. didn't see a lot different in the 12z gfs...not sure why it lacked so much precip compared to 6z, but it's early in the game. at this point, just hoping there's a storm...next step avoiding shearing...
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i just saw it here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022010300&fh=108
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helluva storm down there.
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just saw the 0z canadian. more of that, please.
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storms needs work on the 12z.
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this is the only thread that matters to me right now. still would like to see that trough a little further west to avoid a miller b or a system that develops too late.
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i know, right lol
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this one is a wrap up here. system is moving mostly east right now. might take a drive south today just to remind myself what snow looks like.
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significant rates of clouds here. radar looks beautiful dc south. gfs nailed the storm; nam nailed the cutoff. 'murica. guess i need to start tracking the next one.
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Nothing but clouds up here…I expected it so no surprises, though radar is more brutal than I expected.
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seeing some returns showing up on cod. not sure if that's virga, but it's a good sign. interesting system, that's for sure.
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it's a valid concern, but you don't want to speak in absolutes on a board where people are feening for snow. with that said, i always felt i95 was in a better spot for this...mostly because that's what the models have predominantly shown lol.
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one of the things that concerns me a bit up here (and this is non emo; trying to be science based) is the nw wind and subsequent dry air. not only would i imagine that being part of the reason for the cutoff, but i can't recall too many storms that arrived right on the heels of a cold front (and it's still a little breezy out there). whatever happens, it's an interesting setup to track.
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the nam is obviously meant to key in on the heavier stuff and will overdo the precip amounts (and underdo the lighter stuff) while the hrrr jumps around all the over the place (and is at least partly driven by radar trends, if i remember correctly). i gotta think a mix of the euro/gfs is the best strategy at this point, along with nowcasting.
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better than frederick...which appears to be on the edge of virga or 1". i wouldn't be surprised if a secondary, elevation enhanced band forms somewhere from frederick to germantown and onto the ene. that's what i'm banking on. if not, so be it.
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Was just searching for it lol
