87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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I think the current model outputs are ridiculous and overdone. That take doesn’t belong in the other thread but it’s in the 50s right now and it’s been generally mild for the past month. Rates can overcome things but I would advise enjoying your vacation lol.
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Slightly cooler up here (just got back home). Nw breeze picking up a bit. Would prefer the old fashioned caa/north wind, but gotta start somewhere. I’m kinda resigned to this being an I95 storm but hopefully light precip makes it up here.
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Looks like I’ll at least be able to watch the virga from Frederick tomorrow on the nam. Intrigued with what the 18z gfs/euro have to say. If they continue the trend I’ll be more enthused. If not, congrats dc to bmore.
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I’m currently shooting hoops in Moco in shorts and a tshirt, if it makes anyone feel better.
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Doesn’t look like it’s done trending yet with adjustments like that. Starting to like my spot more (less temp issues), though definitely looking primo for Moco.
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gfs looks fun.
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i'd feel pretty good along that dc to bmore corridor for this one. maybe starts out sloppy, but per the gfs temps/dews are in the 20s by around sunrise. if those temps/rates are correct, the morning commute (for those commuting) could be interesting.
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i feel similarly about my time spent tracking the wizards/skins lol. the nba is truly still a superstar league and the wft/skins/hogs/red wolves/whatever they're gonna be need to figure out who's going to be their starting qb. re weather...the analysis part is fun...the lack of control is not. learning can kinda cancel that out and make you more wise about picking which storms to invest time in.
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kinda surprised that poster even has an account. that wasn't a spelling mistake yesterday and he's done it before.
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Nam’s higher resolution could be keying in on the heavier band and chopping off the expanse of the lighter precip. I’d be concerned about temps the most further south. We’re relying on a helluva temp drop.
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Looks like I’ll be tracking light snow up here on the nam lol. There’s a couple of ways this storm could bust so need to stay wise re expectations. 12z globals will be kinda important.
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Yea gotta think the boundary is setting up further north and west than expected…or just slower to move in.
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Approved
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Lol I’m just a ba though do fill in for my sm. Definitely don’t think I’d want that job. Need to have some legitimate referee skills. I mostly feel bad for the devs because we have a deliverable around that timeframe though I think I need to present this time. It is what it is. re weather…agreed. Snow on snow for dc would be cool. We’re still pretty decent at jan/Feb.
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not sure, no thunder, but pretty heavy rain shower.
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in other news, the radar looks pretty interesting right now.
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now that's a lot more fun than tracking the edge of light snow.
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we don't do denver very well, but then again there's always feb 87 and commutageddon to rely on.
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the late week threat pops a surface low in a pretty good spot, but would like to see the trough a little further west and an earlier development. monday seems a little more of a wishcasting event, but either way both are a nice diversion from having to prep for PI planning the following week (if you work in agile you'll know what i'm talking about).
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i just meant for this storm lol. i like the idea of a better pattern showing up as we get into mid january. honestly, i'm ready to have some weather to track, rain or snow...though it's winter, so gotta root for the crystals.
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this one needs to start the nw trend asap.
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if the gfs is right and we get a north trend, it would be a major snowstorm here imo. 500 is almost a perfect pass. the question is whether it's believable with cold air chasing the precip. i hope it's right, though.
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it just seems to lack consistency and is a day behind the euro (generalizing). i mean, the gfs literally showed a major snowstorm in richmond yesterday, then backed off at 06z and now it looks like it's showing it again. it just seems a little bouncier than the euro. not saying it isn't a good model (i'm sure the stats will show it as #2), but if you had only 1 model to rely on which would you choose?
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gfs is just clearly not in the same league as the euro at 5 days out...it certainly needs the cmc or uk in its camp. would be interesting to know why the euro is so good.
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there's some energy in the northern stream that seems to act as a kicker/suppressing the trailing wave on the models that have less impact here. not sure if that has to do with the southern energy being weaker or not, but it's noticeable on the nam as well (as in being similar to the gfs).
