87storms

gfs might be a little better this run with the next week system. still lifts the southern wave too soon, though.

roll the dice. this one has a light/mod feel to it. not a ton of moisture. the weekend system doesn't quite have a high in the right spot, imo (though not off by much). the one next week looks like it has a chance, but it's just simply too early to know. the only trend i'm seeing is that each storm seems to have more moisture to work with.

looks like the best setup (on paper) that the gfs is dishing out right now. banana high to the north. plenty of moisture. euro is icy, though, and took a step back from 0z so we'll see what happens with that one.

yea, i'd definitely sign on for the raptor model. gotta see what euro has to say about all of this. we're close enough to tipoff to start reaching a consenus, at least for wave 1.

both waves still reach us and i don't see much change with the waa at 850, but looks like precip has been getting cut back slightly the last several runs. that might just be because there's not much of a surface reflection at all. the weekend system is the one that looks like it could trend better.

Yea it was a stretch actually past Raleigh and I think near or after Durham. It was several years ago. Had to drive through that one section to find something open, but it’s another thing to pay attention to if you’re planning a trip.

Lol I got lucky. Was driving through Raleigh once and they really got hit the night before. Gas stations were closed and I was on E but found one open. Close call, though.

ice storms can be unpleasant, even more so when you're driving around, low on gas and find stations are closed. they're fun from a weather perspective, but i'll take snow.

managed to stay snow since the flip around 7am. still have some rates moving through with this next band, but only so much it can accumulate with fringe temps. it is what it is. this is about what i expected tbh, though i did think bmore and areas further east would do better than they are.

Not sure about roads, but it’s accumulating on everything else atm. Should be a wintry scene this morning with the wet snow sticking to tree limbs.

Mostly, if not all, snow here now. Notable rates, too. Column just needed some time to cool.

yea, i think more so a couple days ago when it looked like it was trending stronger. i think the association with this one could have been just the quick thump in a short amount of time. 87 was around a foot in 6-8 hours. jan 2011 was a scaled down version of that.

this was one of my favorite snowstorms, though i was too young to know why/how it became a surprise (and borderline freakish) snowstorm. i was actually peeking at analogs this week because i thought this may have some similarities with the milder temps leading in, but it didn't show up. i think that one was a bombogenesis and caught forecasters off guard as it tracked up the coast. it's also in the ku book. jan 2011 is probably the closest to that one that i've seen, and feb 2014 as far as rates are concerned.

lol had a very similar convo with a fam member a few weeks ago and he was pretty convinced that everything is a 50/50 chance. unfortunately, not how it works, though we certainly have a 50% chance that it will "attempt" to snow, just like how i have a 50% chance of "trying" to jump over the moon. back to obs...just hiked a patapsco trail with my cousin and it certainly feels cold enough to snow. actually, we were both commenting how it was a little bit chillier than we expected. nam 12k didn't look too bad. the lesser qpf might be correlated with the speed of the storm, so i could see how it might still put down some rates for a couple hours.

Agreed with the 2-4” based on qpf/temps, but this also seems like one of those systems that could tick nw a bit depending on how much it can phase with that northern piece.

Lol true. Gotta optimize your time/energy/money as wisely as possible.

eh, i hear ya, but i wouldn't look at it too much like that. there are worse ways that people waste time/energy and even money, but sounds like you found an appropriate middle ground. agreed re that balanced lane. while it's always nice to have a career vs just a job, there's something to be said about having a job that allows you to dive into hobbies on the side or even part-time work/volunteering.

i actually never viewed you as one that got too emotionally attached to every model run. you were clearly in it to learn. you can probably just sit back and chill now because you know a lot lol, but i agree with your general sentiment that there are more productive ways to spend time than living/dying with each model run. i don't think that's the way to go about things, though obviously there'll be some attachment to a forecast that you want to happen. i really should learn more about meteorology...my degree is in math, i enjoy math and have even been brushing up on topics lately to shake off the rust, but for some reason i just never went the met route (though somewhat considering grad school lately). that said, i've been doing more passive learning of topics...like why is the 250mb jet important, etc., as questions come up about a storm.

agreed, and just posted something similar in banter lol. i'm good with it just snowing and, of course, there's always the possible nw shift closer to gametime.

i'm definitely just glad to see snow...it'll be a good start to super bowl sunday. re long range tracking/model hugging...getting too emotionally involved with long range tracking is like getting too emotionally involved with whether your favorite sports team is winning or not. watching sports is fun, but i'd rather learn about it and/or play it. it becomes more fruitful. same with tracking storms...tracking just for the entertainment portion of it is fine (nothing inherently wrong with that), but if you're getting upset about each model run, then you're using it to quell your own fears as opposed to something that can enrich you. (2 cents)

gfs looks like mostly a hold from 6z. maybe even a slightly better qpf output for dc/bmore. at this point, probably just need to hand things off to the next euro run/nam and whatever happens, happens.

nam is inspiring; the latest gfs was not. need any further se shifts to stop and probably could use one more move nw. i don't think light rates will cut it with this storm...we've learned that lesson already. also seeing some hints that there could be a zone in between the better rates closer to the lp track and higher elevations. i think i'd rather be closer to the low track with this one for the best lift and take my risks with temps.

not sure if this is the best map to look at for this system, but the jet streak looks pretty much the same...maybe even better. nam might jump around a bit up to gametime if this is going to be a convective system upon approach.

even 93 started as light rain/mix before the thump. temps were solidly in the 40s the day before and upper 30s overnight. rates will probably be key with this, but the track looks pretty ideal...at least on paper.

true. i think you meant sunday, but same logic applies. i was thinking more wrt the meat of the system. also think the recent snowpack could help with temps right above the surface leading into it.