87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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just a rainer so far through olney. not much wind to speak of. that cell north of glenmont got the warning, but might skirt south of me.
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The cell moving through the 270 split looks intriguing. Of course, I’m not there at the moment.
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No lightning showing up with these at all. I get the impression there just isn’t enough instability up this way, but we’ll see.
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Radar looks interesting for round 2.
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just rain through olney (in regards to the cell that just moved through). no thunder to speak of.
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i'm generalizing, but i always feel like our best severe events are preceded by sunshine, light winds...basically the calm before the storm. i don't know why that is, but it seems to hold true for a lot of potential setups. i don't like seeing clouds or breezy conditions before what's supposed to be severe storm chances. not saying we can't do severe without typical summer day conditions, but we really need things to destabilize and/or have a nice vort pass to get anything interesting here it seems.
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getting some decent downpours now, but no real storminess. i'm all in for round 2.
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definitely an underperformer with the first round. rain seems even lighter than radar depictions. i think it's up to round 2 to deliver. might need some breaks in the clouds to make this happen.
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i pretty much stopped using cod because it only occasionally loads on my iphone. need to switch it from lte to wifi, or vice versa. i use weatherbug the most now. i downloaded noaa radar pro, but the loops are too short and it's choppy in general, though maybe i'm doing something wrong. i never cared much because cod was always reliable, but i may need to check out this radarscope situation.
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today is a reminder that we get epic busts in warm weather season as well. forecast called for showers and i don't think i received a drop of rain imby. imagine if the forecast was for snow.
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The upper level setup was not ideal for this. I had a feeling this is how it could end up. We need highs to the north. Instead, the 540 line is way northwest of the region. Cold is cold though so maybe we flip back.
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heavier rates can overcome surface temp issues. the problem, at least closer to the city, is that without it ripping it's just a bunch of wet pavement.
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flipping back and forth here depending on the rates. roads are wet. maybe we can turn this into a feb '87 later. gonna need rates, without a doubt.
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The first part of this system is suspect. The good stuff is later, but tbd on whether temps will cooperate around town.
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Per 3k it looks like a mid to late afternoon start time as snow and we become rate dependent in the cities after that. Gonna need to see how well this system holds together on its trek across the mountains. I don’t think this is a system you want light/steady rates with.
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i don't really see how this comes too much further north. i think this is more an issue of chilly vs cold at this point.
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oh no doubt. ugly trek during rush hour traffic, but an easy one on the weekends. there was a time in the 90s where elevation was key. this has that vibe to it. the cold air is moving in, it's just lagging behind the system...which is better than a retreating high, at least for the higher elevations.
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what's annoying is the track is really not bad right now, it's just the lack of a high that has me concerned for the lower elevations. kinda running out of time here, so if this is an elevation event, my jeep might be taking a cruise for this.
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i'd feel pretty decent if i was in northern maryland for this. i don't know where the real infiltration of cold is going to come from for the fall line crew. we'll need a good track for this one.
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this is another setup with a closed upper low over canada. not a great year as far as general flow is concerned, but cold is cold, right? we're probably just used to seeking out a particular setup, which may raise more flags that needed. surface temps leading in look ok per the gfs. i think it's the upper levels that are not great. dews may not be great without a nice high bleeding in, but close enough that we may still be in the game. really need this track to be underneath, imo. as is, it's probably an elevation event.
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plenty of warm air aloft. i imagine the clouds just held what little was left of the cad in.
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lol, i'm jealous. 50s sounds great. given that we essentially have a bermuda high right now with the snow saver moving offshore, it's gonna be sloppy outside today.
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i think it'll be easy if we can get the clouds to scour out. got a nice west wind now.
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we all want another 96/16, but these types of storms are the reality. what's nice is that the concern of a gully washer rain has held off for now, so the first part of this was a legit snowstorm. those other great storms generally had a nice h5 pass. this was essentially an overrunning event due to a screaming jet and near perfectly timed cold high to the north.
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legendary sized flakes falling now. might need another work break.