87storms

i tried dragon's milk a couple months ago. that is one violent stout. haven't tried the one above, but the word bourbon caught my eye.

We need something to track in the short/midrange so we’re not locking in on these phantom LR events. We’re sitting here talking about systems for the following weekend lol. Not many options and it’s all good for analysis, but it’s just too far out. These weather models struggle at times with same day cloudy vs sunny forecasts. 2015 was brought up as a back loaded winter and it was, but there was more cold around and early January produced a few inches from a clipper that year. Hopefully that tide turns soon. Next week does look active, so that’s a start.

oh, i'm not looking at that system. i'm eyeing the trailing/coastal. i think gfs is handling that first wave a little odd. the upper level pattern is a mess.

gfs is more of an apps runner than a cutter. given the competing energy to the north i could see how that system ends up on the southern envelope. that said, the first wave is a week away, so there's gonna be waffling.

i don't think there's really any formula for winters here. i've lived here most of my life and we're good for 2-3 advisory/warning level snows per season. that's my guide for a decent winter. what makes this winter lame so far is that we haven't had a single legit event yet (2-4"+), at least in the cities, and what's even more surprising is the lack of digital snow which tells me we really are in a subpar pattern. however, the 6z gfs does have a bit more activity/fake snow, so maybe that's a sign the pattern is changing. we'll find out in 2 months lol.

agreed. this winter could still end up sneaky in that regard.

would be nice to see the 540 line closer to our lat for a change when a system is encroaching (or a better vort pass), otherwise we need a perfectly timed high pressure to the north. without ample blocking these air masses seem to be getting booted out too soon.

Our snow to rain ratio is generally minor league material, but we’re definitely in a prolonged mild/precip pattern...nearing 2 years of it. Need an atmospheric shuffle. Maybe that’s upcoming for February. Rain in Bethesda, trees/cars glazed. Might actually look kinda cool once this band of precip leaves.

if i was paid to forecast, i'd be pretty concerned about power outages later, at least n/w of the fall line (assuming cad takes longer to erode). even the 3k has temps near freezing when the next batch arrives. obviously, won't be a skating rink, but trees/power line impacts...i could see that.

the track for this system is so bad for this area that even precip is meager. i'm actually surprised we were able to get any snow/sleet at all, regardless of how strong the surface high is. this is a classic freezing rain setup.

there appears to be more blocking in canada for that storm as opposed to this upcoming weekend where the system is just cutting through the path of least resistance into the midwest. timing will be key again. may even want that next system to slow down a notch.

Wall of rain. Actually kind of impressive.

It’ll be gusty showers, but wouldn’t be surprised to see local torrents. Bonus for thunder, but I gotta think that’s unlikely.

Gusty showers en route. Windows open. January thaw (let’s pretend we have snow on the ground) in beast mode.

Didn’t want to say it, but I thought h5 looked awful even during the thump scenario. May just need some time for the pattern to shake out.

Classic rain to snow event.

It's the dumbest title ever..probably why you missed it lol, took me a minute to realize it was a storm thread and not a discussion about how bad the pattern is. as far as patterns are concerned, call me one of those who didn't see this coming after what was a pretty chilly start to the season. this is without a doubt as weak of a winter as last year so far (actually weaker because the mid january storm was great). on a side note, i enjoy the outdoors, so if it doesn't snow i'm ok with some hiking/biking weather.

the challenge is putting emotions aside and forecasting based off of pure objectiveness, though there's probably some merit to erring on the side of caution with every potential because it does seem like even the best models are not always on point with the nuances that can cause a busted forecast here (e.g., warm ground, atlantic air, mountains/downsloping, etc.). heck, there's busted forecasts all year 'round. there were many days where sun was forecast and we're left with clouds. happened the other day, too. i still think searching for cold makes more sense here which is also why i think tracking indices is where it's at. precip ain't a thing here...just look outside. at minimum, we get too much cold (not what i enjoy btw) and we end up with side swept clippers.

i think checking the models for digital snow beyond 5 days is still pretty much a time passer without much to show for it, but the oscillations are worth monitoring and +AO/-PNA isn't going to help things. we just need to hope that we enter our wheelhouse of snow (i think it's early jan thru feb) with the indices in our favor, otherwise we're relying even more on luck than normal. as far as dec/march is concerned, i can't imagine global warming is going to help us in that regard considering we're already a fringe snowtown to begin with, though i certainly can see the storms being more robust moving forward, so there's that.

we had such a long run of wet/mild and even hot over the summer that i'm actually impressed we were able to switch so quickly in the fall to a pattern that could even remotely support snow. that said, i feel like we're only at normal/typical now and may need another favorable pattern nudge to get into a wintry pattern. nov/dec were pretty weak in the snow department, but they normally are, so i don't think we've wasted much during that transition period from a record breaking summer to a pattern that could support snow given the right track.

the feb storm was wild. extreme rates overnight that overcame a mild sunday, and knocked out power for days due to the heavy accumulation that stuck to everything. wish some of the historical radars went back that far. that storm is in the KU book as well. the jan storms were more of the powder variety.

i remember it being a bit of a slow starter here in the evening. it wasn't until the coastal took over the next day that the rates were legit.

that storm sucked, but i had a feeling (miller b) that it could be a letdown. i didn't feel confident in march 2001 either considering i was playing basketball in shorts and a tshirt the day before the storm was developing. the march bust from a few years ago was pretty bad in large part due to the timing of it (in a snow drought leading in and knowing that would be the last real chance of the season).

the 500 map at least on the gfs was not very inspiring. the energy in the west just splits off and takes their own path east. need at least a partial phase.

looks like the best forcing is to the nw of the city through northern md, but still clips dc. i'd feel better in loudon/frederick for this one for the elevation as well, but still think dc/bmore should get at least a light snow out of this.