87storms

The upper level setup was not ideal for this. I had a feeling this is how it could end up. We need highs to the north. Instead, the 540 line is way northwest of the region. Cold is cold though so maybe we flip back.

heavier rates can overcome surface temp issues. the problem, at least closer to the city, is that without it ripping it's just a bunch of wet pavement.

flipping back and forth here depending on the rates. roads are wet. maybe we can turn this into a feb '87 later. gonna need rates, without a doubt.

The first part of this system is suspect. The good stuff is later, but tbd on whether temps will cooperate around town.

Per 3k it looks like a mid to late afternoon start time as snow and we become rate dependent in the cities after that. Gonna need to see how well this system holds together on its trek across the mountains. I don’t think this is a system you want light/steady rates with.

i don't really see how this comes too much further north. i think this is more an issue of chilly vs cold at this point.

oh no doubt. ugly trek during rush hour traffic, but an easy one on the weekends. there was a time in the 90s where elevation was key. this has that vibe to it. the cold air is moving in, it's just lagging behind the system...which is better than a retreating high, at least for the higher elevations.

what's annoying is the track is really not bad right now, it's just the lack of a high that has me concerned for the lower elevations. kinda running out of time here, so if this is an elevation event, my jeep might be taking a cruise for this.

i'd feel pretty decent if i was in northern maryland for this. i don't know where the real infiltration of cold is going to come from for the fall line crew. we'll need a good track for this one.

this is another setup with a closed upper low over canada. not a great year as far as general flow is concerned, but cold is cold, right? we're probably just used to seeking out a particular setup, which may raise more flags that needed. surface temps leading in look ok per the gfs. i think it's the upper levels that are not great. dews may not be great without a nice high bleeding in, but close enough that we may still be in the game. really need this track to be underneath, imo. as is, it's probably an elevation event.

plenty of warm air aloft. i imagine the clouds just held what little was left of the cad in.

lol, i'm jealous. 50s sounds great. given that we essentially have a bermuda high right now with the snow saver moving offshore, it's gonna be sloppy outside today.

i think it'll be easy if we can get the clouds to scour out. got a nice west wind now.

we all want another 96/16, but these types of storms are the reality. what's nice is that the concern of a gully washer rain has held off for now, so the first part of this was a legit snowstorm. those other great storms generally had a nice h5 pass. this was essentially an overrunning event due to a screaming jet and near perfectly timed cold high to the north.

legendary sized flakes falling now. might need another work break.

95-100% snow here again. didn't hear a single pinger.

long story short, this is a snowstorm for our area. mixing almost always happens, but this storm is going to bump my winter grade up.

some gloppy flakes mixing back in as the yellow approaches. i have a feeling it might rip for a bit.

snow mixing back in here. northern crew is golden.

sleet has made an appearance here. bit earlier than i expected, but i'm in between heavier rates, so we'll see. still not a bad deal.

snow to mix/rain is never ideal, but it's easy to forget it's feb 20. this winter flew by, partly because it hasn't been a strong winter overall. got a couple good storms out of it, though. not bad considering we never really got into a prolonged deep freeze. maybe we can weasel our way into another event in a week or two.

typical cad. mix line will encroach from all directions, but it wouldn't surprise me if north/central md jackpots.

3"+ here now.

still a powdery snow. while i'm not a column/skew chart guru, i would imagine that's not a bad sign, though it could also be a product of temps in the 20s to start.

Just measured 2.5”.