87storms

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at. the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

one thing i've noticed this season as a very novice hobbyist is that the upper level pattern has not been ideal. we're in need of a good vort pass with the 540 line under us. i know that's not a requirement especially for an overrunning situation, but the 500 maps just have not had that classic or even decent look which makes sense given the surface temps have also been mostly above normal. when you sit and think about the pattern we've had for the last 2 years and leading into this winter it really isn't that surprising that we've been pretty much skunked. this past summer was loaded with 90+ days, so it makes sense that it'll take some time to get back to square one. on the bright side, this type of a dud winter should increase the chance of next winter not being quite as lame, but mother nature will decide that, not the euro.

I’m interested in that Saturday junx, but it is a little hard to believe we can get accumulating snow a couple days after a prolonged soaker. Just don’t see that often here. We usually need a little more time in between systems, but I’m rooting for it.

the fact that the LR thread covers a whole month and not mid month to mid month is already good vibes. that was bothering me. also...went biking today. ground was drier than i expected. if it's not going to snow, then i'm ok with these periodic incredible weather days.

on the bright side, this winter has allowed me extra time to practice my jump shot.

there appears to be more blocking in canada for that storm as opposed to this upcoming weekend where the system is just cutting through the path of least resistance into the midwest. timing will be key again. may even want that next system to slow down a notch.

Didn’t want to say it, but I thought h5 looked awful even during the thump scenario. May just need some time for the pattern to shake out.

It's the dumbest title ever..probably why you missed it lol, took me a minute to realize it was a storm thread and not a discussion about how bad the pattern is. as far as patterns are concerned, call me one of those who didn't see this coming after what was a pretty chilly start to the season. this is without a doubt as weak of a winter as last year so far (actually weaker because the mid january storm was great). on a side note, i enjoy the outdoors, so if it doesn't snow i'm ok with some hiking/biking weather.

i think checking the models for digital snow beyond 5 days is still pretty much a time passer without much to show for it, but the oscillations are worth monitoring and +AO/-PNA isn't going to help things. we just need to hope that we enter our wheelhouse of snow (i think it's early jan thru feb) with the indices in our favor, otherwise we're relying even more on luck than normal. as far as dec/march is concerned, i can't imagine global warming is going to help us in that regard considering we're already a fringe snowtown to begin with, though i certainly can see the storms being more robust moving forward, so there's that.

we had such a long run of wet/mild and even hot over the summer that i'm actually impressed we were able to switch so quickly in the fall to a pattern that could even remotely support snow. that said, i feel like we're only at normal/typical now and may need another favorable pattern nudge to get into a wintry pattern. nov/dec were pretty weak in the snow department, but they normally are, so i don't think we've wasted much during that transition period from a record breaking summer to a pattern that could support snow given the right track.

looks like another band forming and headed towards mby.

8.5" here, unoffically.

This is overperforming like some of our recent rainers. Double digits are in play if these rates continue for a couple more hours.

That was a top shelf snow shower. Lightened a bit the last few minutes but it had to have dropped a quick inch.

Dumping

Accumulating everywhere. Moderate snow.

Cloud deck should be lowering again per wv loop. Think it’s go time for the next round.

Steady with dendrites here.

yea, i've already called it a storm lol, though a couple more inches would make me call this a round. very good storm for this area and it's only jan 13.

well hopefully everyone can get in on the action. it's pretty clear at this point there's re-enhancement going on of the precip, but rates n/w of 95 are tbd. dendrites have reappeared imby, but it's not moderate which will probably be needed to get to those 2-3" totals.

yea, i could be wishcasting a bit, but we've had a couple of rainers overperform as well. 3" would be pretty legit, though. i would take that and call it a storm.

you can see the squeeze play going on and i think we're in a pretty decent spot for it. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

just got back from a nice little hike through cabin john. outstanding scenery. 5.5" was about the average. round 2 or 3 or whatever it is at this point looks very appealing at the moment. not sure how far north and west is goes, but can't underestimate a mild atlantic. should be interesting to see how much moisture can get thrown back here.

Around 5.5” here.

looks pretty awesome outside. will need to get out measure and take a stroll/pics soon.