87storms
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Everything posted by 87storms
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What’s impressive aside from the moderate powder falling (which has got to be at least 0.5” ph here right now) is the breeze. It’s really adding an element to this storm.
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nearby weather stations between downtown frederick and gambrill are still around 18-20 degrees.
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southern systems overrunning arctic air are the fun kind.
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strong start in frederick. sticking to everything. steady, maybe even mod and low visibility kicking in. can't see the catoctin's right now.
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Flaking in Frederick now
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still virga here, but it's incoming.
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4-7" for frederick...that'll work. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ004&warncounty=MDC021&firewxzone=MDZ004&local_place1=Frederick MD&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=39.4157&lon=-77.412#.YeRiIP7MK5c
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arctic express...a day late, but gonna be hard to scour out for the western folks. nasty stuff once the changeover occurs.
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yea, seems like there's a more easterly component on the gfs than the high res models. this is one of those storms where mets earn their paper. gonna be a lot of flight delays incoming as well.
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hiking old rag today would be something else.
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true, that was an imby post lol. my guess is 1pm for frederick, but precip is high-tailing it.
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basically following those 850 winds. verbatim would be about a 2pm arrival (maybe earlier).
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satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 water vapor: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=24 cod: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=LWX-N0Q-0-24-100-usa-rad
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hoping it stays snow longer than expected for obvious reasons, but also because this has legitimate power outage potential for the northern tier. i don't feel like dealing with that.
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This has potential to be a sneaky event.
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I’m relying on the hills between Germantown and Frederick to be my defense mechanism here at delaying the subtropical airmass at 850…I’m expecting at least 45 mins of crystals falling from the sky.
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Can’t go wrong with daytime snow…so that’s a plus. I think the ice situation could be worse than we think. This is a stout high even if it’s moving offshore. I know one thing…after taking a little tumble on a sidewalk while leaving canton last night, I’ll be paying attention to black ice. Someone must have washed a car or something lol. But most importantly I didn’t drop my leftovers.
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Yea that 18z run ain’t it
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yea, and that's just as annoying as a sharp cutoff like a couple weeks ago. hopefully it's wrong, but there's a lot of consensus towards that high just not being in the right spot.
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different setup, but 94 had a pretty epic bust of a snowstorm that ended up being several inches of pure sleet (which actually looked like snow tbh). very brief snow to start and that was it. i haven't looked at the surface maps, but the track was just too far inland here. i do agree that you'd think with an arctic airmass the day before that we'd do a little better on the front end.
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we need this storm tomorrow instead of sunday.
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surface looks marginal better. maybe we'll get a slightly quicker transfer, though not sure that would even be better with that easterly component.
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sleet sucks, though i could do without power outages (though a little ice can be fun).
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The placement of the high just doesn’t seem ideal. Surface winds look they’re out of the east by the time the precip arrives and the 850 layer looks potent out of the se. I’m assuming it’ll be a battleground for a few hours, though I guess a quicker arrival or slower departing high could help with that.
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The clipper system looks healthy on its own. Might be a cleaner event if it didn’t phase so quickly with that other west coast energy (or if it was the only system). Hopefully it trends a little further east towards gametime.
