87storms

12z GFS for the next week system shifted about 500 miles to the WNW.

I got practically squat from that storm in Frederick, but it was entertaining driving down 270 the next day and seeing several inches in Cabin John. We did pretty solid with a couple other events that month, so in comparison to this Winter, last Winter even in Frederick feels like the Upper Midwest.

I didn't notice too much in the way of mosquitoes last Summer, so we might be due for that. The idea of warmer weather is beginning to sound kind of awesome, though.

I'm all in for that. I miss early January...it's certainly better than 40 with clouds and wind...unless it's gonna snow. That's the only exception I'm making going forward...until April, of course.

I'm chasing either sunshine or snow at this point. This latest weather pattern has been miserable, though I did pick a decent time to have a cold (first one in 3+ years and now on day 6). Feels like I haven't missed anything. Hopefully, we can get on the board Wednesday. If not, bring on the sun and mild until the next trackable event.

Sounds awesome tbh. Though GFS does look more ripe for snow chances starting in a week. This might just be one of those winters where we had to can-kick into prime climo to get frozen.

How are the spring training ensembles looking?

Which makes the bashing of models even more silly. Was just thinking about that this morning...how there's been a lack of digital blue which matches very well with ground truth.

I've been timesharing with the Ravens this year since the Commanders are, well...let's just say they're TBD (note, I was an early adopter rocking a Ravens hoodie back in '96). I thought Huntley played good enough overall. He's a bit like Heinike. Throws some ducks here and there, but his playmaking cancels some of that out. I also thought they ran the ball really well, which is why a QB sneak near the goal line was a suspect playcall. Otherwise, they had a chance to win away against a good team with an undrafted QB.

@psuhoffmanI don't have a degree in met, but I would imagine we probably want the Atlantic on our side. It's going to be more difficult by default to get snow if we're fighting off warmer ocean temps. Maybe that Nino will mix things up a bit and/or a busier Atlantic 'cane season. Otherwise, the idea that we'll need better timing of systems/Arctic air makes sense.

Late season snow is kinda nice as a lead-in to Spring. I'd be cool with that.

I vaguely remember that one being more of an overnight system while I was living in Bethesda, though I might have been at my gf's place in Arlington for that particular one. Here's the radar loop from it...looks pretty healthy: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2006&month=2&day=10&hour=0&minute=0

Woke up to some impressive gusts, albeit temporary. You guys are right, this has been a beautiful Januapril.

At least we have winter sports. CFP Championship tonight. NFL playoffs incoming. Bball and hockey ongoing. Spring training right around the corner lol. I was hoping for some snow to get some hiking in at Gambrill. It's cool to be able to hike the same trails in the snow that I've been biking. November in January. Maybe February will be February.

Yea, they're getting the action for now, but we're still cutter city. Just can't seem to get an ideal upper level pattern.

I thought last winter was somewhat underwhelming in Frederick, but it's really looking like a true winter in comparison to this season so far. There is literally nothing to track on the GFS. Even the upcoming system is looking like a pedestrian frontal passage with needed, but not excessive rain. We're getting La Nina'd. It's as simple as that.

If this was an ice age, we'd be tracking Bermuda Highs. Be careful what you wish for lol. I would like a 1-3" clipper, though.

I can see that as one of the reasons, but what then is the true cause? I see the Pacific mentioned the most, but at the end of the day I guess it's the overall SSTs (yea, I know, climate thread). My point re the northern stream wasn't meant to be cause/effect, but more so that we've lacked even simple clippers which by default would indicate to me our cold blasts are fewer and farther between (I'm not really sure what else it could mean other than that). Maybe we just need an El Nino to shake things up again. Now watch this storm trend south and east lol.

I'm ready for severe season and beach weather, followed by next year's El Nino blizzard.

Exactly. You need an arctic airmass in place when dealing with cutters, which (at this moment) is turning into with the HP sliding right off the coast. The northern stream has not been in our favor the last several winters which can be seen by the lack of Alberta Clippers.

Sounds like the Euro said you will accept your brief flurries you’ve seen so far this season and you will like it. The best part is March is only 8 weeks away. A nice HP placement is ideal, but it’s hard for those long, clear nights in Canada to build deep cold in such a variable pattern. With that said, I wouldn’t object to a heavy, wet snow. Those do look pretty cool the next day.

It's just something to track for the time being, though a closed ULL over the TN valley can produce a MECS+ if it stays the course/intensifies moving east instead of getting squashed (which the current modeling does). The HP and 50/50 low placement might end up determining that part.

I approve of bird watching. Saw a Blue Heron at the Frederick Watershed recently, which I didn't expect. I typically see them along the C&O canal.

You're not kidding. Was able to shoot hoops 'til 530 today (albeit during a little dusk).

Was just thinking how this seems to be a west coast winter. My mom lives in Vegas (along with cousins in CA and CO) so if things don't change I might take a Feb or March trip out there and hit up a road trip. I definitely bantered here, but man this winter needs to start poppin' soon before the spring training posts take over lol. Hopefully, that trailing wave this weekend works out, or one of them thereafter.