cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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As a a Dolphin's fan, I have a bone to pick with you guys. You've ruined our tank strategy.
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Ah, thanks. People like me who aren't knowledgeable have a tendency to jump of the cliff like frightened lemmings whenever anyone shouts "torch". In my defense, I may still be having flashbacks to December 2015. Thinking of that year still makes me shudder.
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I am trying to learn to read H5 better. What is the evil here? I see east trough, West ridge. Aleutians low. Slightly AN heights over Greenland.
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Normal would be a win for December.
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Went really quiet in here.
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They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Consider yourself flattered.
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Curious why you are not concerned. Someone posted an MJO forecast in the banter firm. Patented entry into crap phases and sloooooooooow down. Has me spooked. Edit Nevermind. You answered my question before I even posted it.
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Percentiles aren't necessarily symmetric. It all depends on the underlying data. There must be some extreme outliers on both sides.
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I just have nightmares of a pig Pacific vortex or a 594 dm death ridge in the Atlantic a la Dec 2015. They haunt me.
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On a standard boxplot it would be the 25th to 75th percentile, so that would be my first guess.
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Anyway consider me bummed. It is clear the overall message is +AO/+EPO. I had my hopes set on the EPO.
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What does the thicker bar in the interior of the overall error bars mean?
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I find it confusing why such people hang out in a LR thread.
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I have a very bitter memory of one point last year when the mid-December warm-up was looking like it was going to be very brief. Cut to 11 pm New Years Eve and it was 67 F outside my parent's house. A nearly perfect storm track went over you guys a few days later and produced only rain. I think it made Bob Chill physically sick. Hopefully we don;t get a repeat this year.
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Maybe we can hope that all of the seasonals are as painfully wrong this year as they were last year about the beautiful fantasy pattern that always happened just past week 3.
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That is truly fascination, how in the world could that 2m anomaly map coincide with that H5 look, unless the GEFS ensemble mean is way different than the OP?
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I wait until some one pulls out the recurving typhoon before I cliff jump./
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And in the SE, we say the whole MA is a land of milk, honey, and snow.
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Shouldn't have too much dust on it. Didn't we just have a nice cross-polar episode a few weeks a when we had our big cold shot?
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I will accept the existence of a -NAO when it happened a week ago. Actually, scratch that, -NAOs can exist in March - November, just not in Dec - Feb.
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For what it is worth on the cpc page giving the NAO/AO conditions, the label says 500 mb for the NAO but 1000 mb for the AO. .
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Still trying to sort out my Pacific teleconnections. So a -PNA pattern can come and go relatively quickly, but a dreaded +EPO will embed itself for weeks?
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December 2015 will haunt my dreams for a long time, and not in a good way. Down here in NC we were 70+ for like two weeks straight. It was a warm, soupy airmass as well. Didn't get below 60 F for days on end at night. Mosquitoes and gnats were buzzing. Had to cut on the AC. I think it actually ht 80 F on Christmas day where I was.
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Ah, hello guys, its your brother-from-another-mother down south. I will be lurking around here because this continues to better sub-forum than my home, as far as hardcore meteorological analysis. I was considering looking into the MJO forecasts but I am concerned I am am just starting the pain early. Still having flashbacks from last year's leisurely grand tour through the ugly phases, followed by a lightning rocket through the good, right back to bad.
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I was coming here to post the exact same thing. A good explanation of why we so often fail. I wonder what it is about the Appalachians that make it so hard to resolve.
