cbmclean

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro is starting to do the exact same thing only day 15 vs day 9. But they both evolve the Pacific pattern exactly the same way only a week apart. My guess is they are both following the same progression wrt the forcing shift in the Pacific but obviously disagree on the timing. 

I was going to make a post highlighting how the PAC breaks down and what to look for if it's real in a few mins after I put the kids to bed. 

Family before weather?  And you call yourself a weenie.

9 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Just checking in to see if anyone was excited about the Cohen post on Twitter earlier about the PV split. He’s pretty bullish about it. Doesn’t look like from glancing at the last few pages that anyone is buyin though lol. Thinks EC effects could poss start in two weeks or so.

Well, from what I have seen written:

1. Not all SSWEs propagate to the surface.

2. Not all SSWEs which propagate will impact here (instead of say Eurasia).

3. Even if it does impact us here there can be a sizable lag (2 weeks to a month).

Once we see positive impacts inside day 10, I am sure that many will be more excited.

Of course if we do see blocking, I am not sure if there is any way to know if it came from the SSWE or not 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Oh come on I was working the crowd. Couldn't you have at least let my panic inducing post about the 384 op percolate for a bit???

2 serous thoughts... I've never seen the gefs this insistent and consistent at uber long range and it's at a time when the EPS is like hell no. Lol. 

And we keep getting perfect h5 passes even during this crap pattern. If we can just get some cold...any cold.....like come on!

PSU, weren't you speculating earlier about God getting smiting the MA?

6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Cohen.  Lol.

The frustrating thing about hyperbole like that is that I have a feeling if the Pacific says NO and we torch for the rest of winter, this post will either be forgotten or he'll pull some obscure index out as an explanation as to why it failed.  But if it turns cold, he'll say he nailed it even if it isnt clear if it had anything to do with the SSWE.

Edit: I mean Cohen, not EastCoast NPZ.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

There are different ways to fail. No similarity to 11-12. That disaster was all on the nasty AK vortex. We had good blocking that year but the black hole over AK pumped north america full of an endless supply of pac air. This disaster is different. 

This disaster is also due to an endless supply of Pacific air though, right?  Is it just that the mechanism for supplying the air is different?

So what was the story with the three month long Pacific fire hose in 2011-2012?  Hopefully no analogs to this year.

@PSU or Bob Chill

Do you guys put any stock in this AAM or EAMT stuff?  Sometimes it's hard to sort out meaningful concepts for someone's mumbo jumbo.

2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Finished at -1.23"... 

Are you seriously saying you had below average rainfall?  I didn't know there was anywhere in the Carolinas which wasn't above normal.

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I honestly think I am done blaming this "disappointment" of a pattern on the MJO. Remember the concept of, when sh*t is going wrong, we bring up the MJO- otherwise, its barely mentioned? Here is the reality- we currently do not have a legit Nino- the background state is not Nino, and  in fact, the overall pattern is behaving much more like a Nina. Currently, and officially, the ENSO is neutral, so this 'unfavorable' pattern really should not be a shocking development. Sure the current MJO pulse is robust and lagging in the warmer phases, and while it does have an influence, obviously it alone does not dictate the large scale long wave pattern. The SOI has been positive- more in line with a Nina. Just today it has flipped slightly negative I believe. I suspect going forward the troposphere will begin to behave more like a Nino(assuming the guidance is correct and a weak Nino is in fact underway), and we will see more favorable h5 "snowy" looks heading into the very end of Jan and esp Feb into early March. This Nino is both weak and late to the party, and I think the high expectations have largely been a function of the early hyperbole associated with unreasonable comparisons to winters such as 2009-10. I expect the EPAC will become favorable, and we will see a period of sustained NA blocking, much later than most preferred, but in line with a later developing El Nino.

What organization "officially" determines if there is an el nino going on or not?

15 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah I know, kind of like mentioning a certain storm in Dec 2010.   But at least we all know what happened in Jan 2016 of that winter! 

Actually I'm from the SE forum.  My group seems to have gone into hibernation after our snow so I have to come here for actual analysis.

Jan 16 was just rain for us.,

5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

LOL!  Damn near the entire eastern half of the Pacific has a negative anomaly.  Just ridiculous. I think December 2015 rang and wants an encore. 

Please do not mention that month.

Just read a post from NittanyWX in the New York forum saying that actually it's the Euro which has been getting the mjo correct and the gas which has been whiffing.  Something g about how the RMM plots don't show the real story.   

He also feels that AAM is really running the show and there will be no sustained cold until that changes.

I wish I knew how to link to posts.

Over on the NY thread Don Sutherland notes that we have tied the record for number if consecutive days in phase 5: 12 days.  Yay.

Just seeing how many things can go wrong really makes me amazed at how often it does snow south of the Mason Dixon line.

Can't figure how to post pic on phone, but gfs mjo forecast looking less bad.  Seems line the stall zone is moving in to 7.  Didn't PSU say that 7 is not bad in January?

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z euro is a total dumpster fire but has some room to get worse. 0z should finish off what little chance we have.

Talking about the Jan 4 event or just in general?

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So the MJO is the sole reason for this?

To be frank, I don't feel as if I have a handle on why anything is happening.  Models are flipping every run with violently opposed solutions.  Showing up with 500 hPa anomalies which seem physically impossible given the teleconnections.  The PV is doing the chachacha and no one knows where it will end up, maybe back at the north pole, maybe in Ji's basement.  MJO behaving like it's in a Nina.

A persistence forecast maybe the only reasonable approach: it will be mild and wet until it isn't.  

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is also a correlation with the soi dropping once the mjo gets to 7/8/1.

Which would be nice, assuming it ever gets to 7/8/1.

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’m ignoring 500 maps at 384 on the ensembles. It’s all about MJO and SOI at this point. 

I was considering suggesting this as well, but since I don't actually provide useful analysis and since I am not even in my home forum I refrained from trying to boss everyone around.

But from various sources it seems probable that the mjo is in the driver seat right now.  Don Sutherland seems to think that the SOI is critical now as well, and he is one of the posters that I trust the most.

Who/what organization puts out the icon?

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Cfs has really backed off. A week ago it mirrored the euro weeklies.  Now it's flat awful through all of January. But hey it says the pattern gets kind of mediocre at least by mid February!!!

This surprises me because the CFS has the best MJO forecast.  Rockets through phases 6 and 7 into the promised land of 8.

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Spending 3 hours to get my daughters wrist checked and find out it’s not broken is Not how I wanted to spend today

If it saved you from looking at the models, you might be better off.

53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wake me when the move from phase 7 to 8 begins please.

Best case scenario still looks to be CFS, entering phase 8 ~Jan 6th.  Hope it's right.

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs is starting to show the effects of the nao blocking. Yea it's a flawed pattern with PAC puke airmass flooding across under the blocking BUT...you keep running those juiced up systems west to east under the block with highs to the north during the coldest time of the year and one is likely to work out. 

Get the Pacific just slightly better and it becomes a money pattern fast. 

Alright, euro shows MJO going through phase 6 at low amplitude then into COD.  Who else has guidance?

16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

@donsutherland1 has a great post over at 33andrain, quoted below:. Btw $5 to the first person to quote this long azz post for Leesburg 

 

Help me obi wan Kenobi, you're my only hope.