cbmclean

As noted by @GaWx in the Tropical forum, a non-zero chance of tropical moisture being drawn up through the SE even if the disturbance doesn't develop.  It would be most welcome (as long as it didn't go overboard).

Eric Webb is pre-emptively savoring the expected tears of east-coast snow weenies during the impending east-based super Nino

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’d say most of central NC likely is above July normal amounts for the entire month and it’s still the first half of July. Yesterday’s rainfall was widespread and affected many areas that had missed out somewhat earlier in month. It seems the tide has turned on the drought looking forward with no signs of extended dry weather at all 

I have missed out on most of the real downpours so far this month.  Only 2.03" MTD, which isn't horrible, by any means, but it's not making any progress into the deficit.  Hopefully my time will come. 

Odd pattern to the cell movement on the RAH radar at the moment.  Some cells moving east, some moving west, some mostly stationary.

Just getting crumbs compared to Wake and Harnett, but back building of moderate rain has yielded 0.40".  1.93" for the month.

First time catching a Wilson Warbirds game, and of course, during the third at bat, torrential rain, with lightning and thunder.  Only 0.03 at the house.

Wildfire sprouting in Brunswick county.  It's been dry down there too.

0.25" from a robust but quick a moving cell.  1.50" for the week and month.

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Flash flood warning for wake. Never thought I’d see that again 

Looks like a legit cell just parked over the center of the county.  Hopefully that is in the Falls lake watershed. 

After being teased by cells all afternoon one finally caught us.  1.07" total with plenty of good thunder.

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yep the run ahead outflow killed us.

So technical question: I know that outflow from one cell can kill another.  But how does any cell manage to last any length of time and sometimes move 100+ miles without always chocking on its own outflow since that spreads out in every direction?

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Got screwed by outflow. Picked up a whopping 0.08” whereas areas just a few miles NW got 1+”

One of the most infuriating weather phenomena to someone wanting rain is when nice juicy cell is gaining strength but not yet decaying and is targeted right at you but just before it hits you a random outflow from another storm comes along and cuts its "legs" out from underneath.  

This is how that makes me feel:

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With no rain in the forecast I will confidently say 2.46” is my monthly total, far less than most of the county but my highest monthly total since August 

What did the farm get for this month?

Missed the good stuff today but 0.25" as a consolation prize, 1.16" for Fri - Sunday.  Looks like we'll finish with 4.35" for June, almost all in the second half.  Grass is actually pretty green here.  We'll see how it survives the big heat.

4 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Where do live in wilson exactly? Those storms looked brutal going through there. I am from there

I live in the north end of town, near Lake Wilson (which is now mostly a puddle).  Was just getting on I-95 heading south on the way to a birthday party when I hit those storms.  They were torrential.

Went back and calculated:

June 2025   10.00

July 2025     3.91

Aug 2025     3.18

Sept 2025    0.66

Oct 2025     2.96

Nov 2025     1.37

Dec 2025     2.15

Jan 2026     1.06

Feb 2026     2.47

Mar 2026     1.91

Apr 2026     1.57

May 2026    1.98

June 2025 - May 2026     33.22

June 2026 4.10 (so far)     

A disappointing 0.24" when areas to the south of town got 2+ inches.  But still had 2.87" this week and 4.10" for the month, which is my first 4+ inch month since at least last June (my PWS records only go back a year).  Rain didn't use to be this hard.

0.67" today.  Let's do it again tomorrow.

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

This is why the drought monitor did not show improvement. There were some improvement to short term drought (shallow soil moisture, levels of small creeks etc.), but long term drought has no meaningful dent made and the heat/moderate humidity will only worsen water levels over at least the next couple weeks

This has been building for ~9 months, with a dry fall, a bone-dry winter and a record dry spring.  It will be many months until we get out.  Barring a Matthew-level tropical system inundating the state (which brings problems of its own) I think the reasonable best-case scenario is to slow the bleeding until well into fall when the temps cool down and hopefully the super el nino southern stream ramps up.

Picked up another 0.13" from a straggling cell.  1.68" daily total.

1.55" for the day.  3.06 for the month.

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh will put in place level 2 water restrictions once Falls Lake drops to 45% full. According to the graphs at the following link, that happens between 241 and 242 feet. The current forecast suggests that would happen in September but that is basically extrapolation. https://epec.saw.usace.army.mil/falls_summ.htm

One hopes that before that happens the developing super-ultra-mega-El Nino will break through with a southern stream fire hose.

Got 0.28" from the line.  Hoping for more tonight 

Really nice line of storms plowing across the north half of NC ATM.  Need it to trend south a bit to hit me.  North Wake could be in the crosshairs.

Finally hit 1.00," for the month.