cbmclean

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Let's hope he's right this time!

To me he's noise at this point when he's discussing cold.  It's when he starts throwing in the towel that I pay attention.

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Add Dec 2022 to that. The holidays was downright arctic. We all know what happened after that.

I hadn't forgotten 2022; it's what I had in mind when I mentioned the sharp but transient cold.  Now maybe I'm being a little unfair to it because it wasn't a one-day wonder as most of that week was bitter.  And I enjoyed it thoroughly.  But there was clearly no hope of any storm activity and at the time we knew it was limited duration and we could see the suck barreling down on us like a freight train.  We didn't know that it was going to last the rest of the winter though.  

10 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Same here.  I don't expect snowy Christmases (or Decembers in general) in the DMV area anyhow.  But a nice, chilly day in the 40s or so is fine, and at least not a washout with rain.  Or where it feels humid as you say!  In 2015 here, we had that ridiculous +8 or so departure for the month (thank God that didn't happen in July!).  It was literally uncomfortably warm and humid after some heavy rain late evening on Christmas Eve.

Now, growing up in northeast Ohio, different story!  Definitely plenty of cold and snowy Decembers and Christmases there which was always great.  Actually I recall one of the most striking reversals in terms of Christmas temperatures.  In 1982, Cleveland set a record high on Christmas of 66 degrees (that was a crap winter all around).  Exactly one year later in 1983, they set a record low of -10, brutal cold and wind all day with some Lake effect snow, temperatures barely got into the single digits for highs.

Sure.  Living in NC my whole life I'm no stranger to Christmas torches.  But the consistency of the late December torch is beginning to be very troubling to me.  It seems to be getting beyond the point of bad luck and to the point, "is there something going on here"?  The beginning of the month has been variable: some years are torches, some years have been quite cold (like this year), but some point between 12/1 and 12/15 we see a bad look appear at 384 and march majestically through to validation and the entire holiday period is spent squinting at model noise trying to will a flip into existence,

Interestingly it hasn't been the same mechanism of failure.  Some years it's an AK trough bringing Pac Puke.  Some years it's SER with a western trough.  This year is more of a NW trough with a CONUS-wide ridge.  I guess the common thread is the Pacific but the variance makes me wonder even more.

I will admit that the bad periods have also not been monolithic: several have had notable sharp frontal passage with non-trivial cold.  But in every case I can think of, the cold has been either transient, or completely surface-based, with no support in the higher portions of the atmosphere.

Honest question to everyone: when is the last time anyone can remember when we had a good, or even "pretty good" pattern either in place or imminent between 12/20 and 12/31?  The closest I can remember would be 2017.  It turned cool on Christmas and then ended up bitterly cold the last few days of the year and the first few days of 2018.  That was great for cold lovers (like me) but still not a snow pattern for most.  I think even 2013 had a mild holiday period.  And I recall many of you bemoaning the cutter that washed away your snowpack in 2009.  Are there any good holiday patterns that I am missing?

16.0 F

21.9 °F.  My PWS showing a DP of -0.4 °F, that seems unlikely to me, anyone else east of Raleigh with a DP to report? 

Edit: Never mind, just saw RDU DP was at -4 °F, so mine is reasonable!

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Remember the super storm of 93? Match blizzard from Alabama to Maine. 

The fabled triple phaser. 

29 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

yeah - that's pretty solid coverage.

Mobile to Maine!  I remember that was a cold storm.

1 minute ago, gopper said:

I guess it really petered out at Boston.  Pretty close though.

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

when really was the last one?  2010?

2016 was not one?

57 minutes ago, H2O said:

@Bob Chilli should have caveat’d to say so far this winter GFS has done better with NAO vs AO. 

Obviously both being neg is preferable but I guess I like NAO more cause it jams up the ATL closer to us which for me means HPs can’t slide east so quick. We’ve had AOs be neg but be in locations that don’t help as much. 
 

Basically I want anything that gives us snow. AO, NAO, PNA, WPO, DIY, WTF, SOS. Gnat farts in Mongolia work too

Obviously the numeric indices aren't as important as the the patterns they attempt to quantify, but overall I suspect that NAO blocking is less impactful for you guys in the current base state.  The return flow before a shortwave has just been a little too warm.  I know, I know: it's been rare lately to get a well-positioned block that lasts.  But transient boot-leg stuff used to have a greater probability of meaningful results.  Will that change some if we can ever get out of the -----PDO dregs, I don't know.  I sure hope so.

By the way, I loved your work in Blazing Saddles.  Would you consider signing up for a remake?

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm finding that when ya stare at it too long that tends to happen more. Maybe the secret is...don't stare too much? 

"If you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you."

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

A pretty heavy graupel shower is passing through here. Sticking on elevated surfaces 

Had graupel as well, didn't know what it was at first.  Looked like bits of styrofoam coming from the sky.

Some flakes in Wilson.

16 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Given all the warmups so far being can kicked, what is making this time different in regards to the sentiment I’ve been seeing?

Staying power.  The changes that lead to the warmth are already in process early next week.  That's close enough for confidence.

27 minutes ago, bncho said:

AI is kinda dumb... 44.6" in 23-24 and 47.7" in 24-25???

Talk about hallucinations.

23 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

NAMed

37.8 °F with 0.29".  Second miserably cold rain day this week...I love them on weekdays!

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't look now, but the extended 00z EPS cancels out any major warm up through New Year's. While the pattern does not appear favorable for a HECS, it sure as heck beat Pacific Puke for Christmas.

I'm not writing off Pac Puke just yet.  The solstice warm-up seems to be the most unstoppable atmospheric force on earth for 15+ years.  It hasn't mattered whether we're in Nino, Nina or Nada.  It hasn't mattered whether the first half of the month was good, bad or meh. It hasn't always meant a warm Christmas day per se as we've had a couple of powerful yet ultimately transient cold shots.  And several times we've had normalish surface temps but with torched mid and upper levels.

2017 - 2018 is probably the biggest exception to this rule that I can remember off the top of my head.  It was warm right before Christmas but then turned chilly on Christmas day and then brutally cold around New Years and the first 10 days or so of January.  Even then it was a dry cold with no big storms.

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't do it Ravens.  Seriously.  Low hanging fruit.

Anyway, decent

Wait are you referring to the bird-like shape, or something dirty, because I al a little confused.

One thing to remember: this week was supposed to be a torch.

Ended up with 1.21" today.  39.52" for the year.  Since the start of September, I don't think I've hit the almost 7 inches I got in a 36 hour period in June.

9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Crush job central and eastern NC

I'll let you guys know how it turns out.  

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Fixed 

I had that same thought, but didn't want to to start that war 

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m older than I look 

I'm not trying to be mean, but this was too good an opportunity to pass up...

6 hours ago, Heisy said:

6th event kind of fell off the ledge last night. I dont think the pattern looks bad from 6-12th or so. However, to me it seems like a very Northern Stream dominant pattern, so keep an eye on one of those clipper type waves with enough space to redevelop or at least be strong enough itself to give us some flakes during that time period. Would need a little support from the PNA and too to help amplify any of those waves that flow across the NS.





.

Yeah there is a nice trough in the east, but I see what to my layman's eyes looks like the dreaded AK vortex.  Isn't that our signal to close the blinds for the following 3 weeks or so?