cbmclean

OK, honest thermodynamics/atmospheric physics questions that has puzzled me for a long time.  Right now my temp is 60.3 °.  Temps are dropping very slowly.  Sometimes on nights like tonight's the temps completely steady out.  The ground is warm so it radiates energy at a high rate.  To slow (or even stop) the temperature decrease, something must be adding energy, but what is it?  The sky is clear so there is no downwelling radiation from clouds.  There is no wind so there is no warm-air advection or turbulent mixing.  Where is the energy coming from?  Is it radiating from the water vapor in the air?     

Down to 23 F this morning.  Really impressed with the cold hanging on as much as it can. 

I propose consideration to replace all normal water in the biosphere with heavy water (D2O).  Since it freezes at ~38.9 °F we could gain a lot of marginal events.  We'd have to maintain a supply of regular water for drinking since in large quantities heavy water is toxic.  

Some background on AI models.  https://x.com/i/status/2021333729088585882

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Average highs might be too warm but what is the mean 850 and wet bulb temp?  Again why do you act like we need a cold regime to snow. We have needed that recently but historically we got so many snowstorms in marginal thermal regimes if we get a good storm track. Do you know how many Baltimore snows were 45 the day before and after it snowed. We need those to return. Because cold regimes are often dry!  A big part of our snow climo was from snowstorms in marginal temp regimes not cold ones. One of the reasons we are stuck in the worst snow drought EVER is that for the last 10 years or only snows when it’s cold. We need to get snow when the pattern isn’t perfect or Baltimore is going to continue to average half of what it’s long term 140 year average actually is. 

Do you actually think there is a chance to recover any of that loss?  I fear that ship may have sailed.

This is getting surreal.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because we had a god damn perfect epo/pna pattern. Of course it can still get cold if everything is fucking perfect. We’re talking about losing snow along the margins. losing those snows we used to sneak in when the pattern wasn’t good. 

Next year will be extremely telling.  If a decent central or even west-based El Nino develops, can you guys score with marginal homegrown cold, without crazy EPO blocking?  Are we starting an exit out of the dreg -PDO minimum?  Can we ever have regular bad pattern that isn't a shit the blinds?

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My kids don’t watch it!

Have you watched some of the past shows?  Or some of the stuff on MTV?  I probably don’t want them seeing some of that no…but I don’t remember the outrage at this stuff that’s been going on for YEARS. It’s been like 20 years since the wardrobe malfunction and forget the mistake how bout the fact he was mock groping her which caused the malfunction. This is a lost cause and been this way a long time so why the sudden outrage now?  I suspect I know why. 

We know the true cause is...Leporiphobia.

10 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

True!  It's still "civilized" at that time of year if you're warmer than normal!  I still remember Dec. 2015, we had like a +9 departure for the month, ridiculous warmth (though it didn't feel overly uncomfortable at that time of year)...and I was thinking thank God we didn't get a +9 in July!!!

That Dec 2015 torch scarred me down here in NC.  The daytime highs were bad but the ridiculous nighttime "lows" were nauseating.  RDU didn't dip below 61 from Dec 23rd through the 28th.  Where I was at visiting my parents was even worse.  KFAY had back-to-back days of 80/67 on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  It was humid the whole time too, with plenty of gnats and mosquitoes.

For those like me who also enjoy cold for its own sake, this winter is producing.  Not truly wall-to-wall because we did have some legit warm periods around Christmas and in early January, but the cold period starting at Thanksgiving that lasted until 12/15 or so was legit.  The little cold snap around New Years was nice, and of course the current cold period has been more than legit.  I also loved the little appetizer around Veteran's Day.

34.0/2.7.

51 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The only thing we know about the next system is that No One except the Almighty knows the final outcome yet!!!!

Chuck knows.

Just a weeeeeee bit breezy outside.

30 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Meteorologist Tim Ealer discussion

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines

19 minutes ago, eyewall said:

That is what I am thinking as well. I am guessing it will end up by DC.

Just noticed your new location.  Very apropo.

54 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

I get it bro...but wake co sucks. Especially south...when I lived in wilson it was Jackpot for 13 years...100% facts...oh and wilson just got 8 to 10 inches again

I got 7 in North Wilson (with maybe a few favored spots at 8) and it was an enormous relief, but I have to admit to being emotionally drained at this point.  Together with the storm last weekend it's been 2 straight weeks of relentless oscillations between clown maps and rug pulls.  Obsessive model watching; clicking refresh on my browser at 12 in the morning to see if anyone has posted in the last 15 seconds on this forum.  Being a snow weenie in the SE is hard on the soul.

26 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

This was more of a miller A. A miller B has a surface low in the Appalachian region that transfers usually around the Virginia coastline. You had the ULL that gave most of western NC a good snow, and you then had the coastal that hit eastern NC. Storms/rain/snow are created with lift, and when you have two areas of strong lift, the area in between has the air particles sinking. This is called subsidence. This is what the “dry slot” was. It wasn’t actually dry air really, it was more of a lack of lift and thus not creating the precip needed. If the coastal had formed closer to the coast and the ULL had tilted negatively sooner and interacted more with the surface low, the precip shield from the coastal and ULL would have merged better and filled in (like it did later in the evening). Unfortunately these two did not interact as much as needed for central NC and the transfer of energy basically skipped over central NC and did not provide any lift, or vertical velocity. Feel free to ask if you have any questions or if I didn’t explain it well enough.

Thanks for the info!  I was assuming that the ULL was acting like the primary low of a Miller B and that the low of the coast was the secondary.  I guess that is not the case?  Were the ULL and coastal low just coincidental to each other?

2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

current US snowfall coverage.  
 

Man I feel bad for the plains westward; total dud winter for them.

Traditionally I have focused more on teleconnections for cold; and I am pretty ignorant about storm dynamics.  I know that Miller A/B are ideal models and most noreasters are hybrids.  Is it correct to say that the recent storm was pretty firmly in the Miller B category: a LP coming from the midwest transferring to a coastal low?

I understand the general idea of the dry slot coming from the gap between the winding down of the primary and the winding up of the secondary.  Is a dry slot an absolute in these types of storms?  Are there conditions which lead to smaller or larger dry slots?  What factors determine the location of the slot?  If the coastal low had formed closer to the coast would the dry slot have been more towards the west, or would it have merged with the precip from the primary low leading to a smaller dry slot (or no dry slot)?

I appreciate anyone who feels like taking time to share some knowledge.

4 minutes ago, MDSnow93 said:

To anyone who's superstitious on a science based forum - Your pennies are no good anymore, go find every fountain in the area and toss them in! 

Even the most sciency of scientists have their moments...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauli_effect

7" on the ground here in Wilson, undoubtedly lost some to compaction overnight with this powdery snow.  Dry slot had me sweating bullets yesterday afternoon but turned out ok.

On 1/29/2026 at 4:53 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Yep, except for BAM, I didn’t see anyone who predicted a below normal January 

Amazingly, I think we have a shot at a rare Dec-Jan-Feb hat trick below average.   

12 minutes ago, RockyKnob said:

Nah. January 2018 was the best, at least for Chapel Hill.  ULL produced a foot and sent Gre Fishel into the fountain. 
 

 

I was just talking about for Wilson.

2 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Best place in this area for snow. I swear between 2000 to 2014 money. 

This could end up being the best storm since I moved here in 2008 excepting Boxing Day 2010, and ironically I missed that one since I was visiting my wife's family in Old Fort.  I did get a white Christmas out of the deal.

4 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Lived in wilson a long time...never had a bust storm there. Always got crushed. What are you at now?

Past 4" now.  With the bands on radar I think 6" is an attainable goal.

Just now, eyewall said:

Coming up on 2 inches here on the east side of downtown Raleigh. 

Hitting the lower end of Greg Fishel's 4 - 7 band is definitely within reach.