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Posts posted by cbmclean

  1. Don't normally get too excited about morning rain because it is often light and usually interferes with better convection later in the day.  But this morning delivered a solid 1.16", my first inch-plus day in a while.

    • Like 2
  2. Got 0.87 from the line.  Respectable given the fact that the line seemed to be weakening after passing the triangle (some of that may have just been radar artifact) and how speedily the line was moving.  Ended up with 1.48" from the active spell.  Not horrible but wish I could have had a bit more given the abundant moisture throughout the column, the lack of longwave ridging but also plenty of heat to create instability, as well as the constant stream of shortwaves.  This upcoming week looks dry as of now.

  3. 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    Just 0.22” but it felt nice getting something to wet the yard/garden after 2 weeks of missing everything. .26” for the day 0.43” for July 

    I know the feeling.  Have had five separate instances of rain over the last four days but only netted 0.61".  Grateful to have it but still hoping for a good inch plus soaker.  Maybe today is my day.

  4. Just one of those spells where MBY can't buy a good soaking.  Cells popping up all around me today but only scrounged 0.008".  

    Looking at the radar right now the cells have almost no movement.  If one happens to form over top of you it's great, but otherwise forget it.

  5. We're having a comically cold, wet Memorial Day weekend down here in NC.  Apparently the Eastern trough that was missing all winter woke up and is trying to make up for lost time.

    • Haha 1
  6. On 3/23/2023 at 3:51 PM, psuhoffman said:

    I wish this would be more discussion...instead of simply chalking the SER up to the pac pattern...discuss why is the SER so much stronger than history says it should be at times...including the pac pattern into that equation. 

    I'm not sure that there is really much to discuss at the moment.  The clear leading hypothesis is that the gradually warming base state has hit a "tipping point" with a dynamic response that just happens to be associated with increased SER/WAR.  The exact mechanism(s) of the coupling are unclear but could include overly warm waters in the Gulf/West Atlantic, the Pacific warm pool, the expanding Hadley cell, some combination of all three, or maybe something completely different.  Deciphering it all could take years or maybe a decade or more as we observe the new responses through various ENSO/PDO states.  Until then, all we can do is hope some mitigating natural trends weigh in our favor.  

    Or else we could all chip in to purchase a ship that just sails around the midlatitudes spewing sulfur particulates into the air.

    • Haha 2
  7. 2 hours ago, jayyy said:

    The Sun angle is the same in New York and they’re getting 2 feet between now and Friday. It’s nonsense. Same with the “it’s too warm leading in” notion.

    I’ve seen it snow in April (higher “sun angle” than now) and 1 day after it was 60 degrees. Both of those late season excuses are untrue.

    It isn’t harder to snow in late march because of the sun angle. It’s harder to snow in late march because it’s generally less cold and we’re out of peak climo.

    Longer days could have an effect (more hours of sunlight) but not sun angle. If it’s 30-33 and snowing hard enough, it’ll accumulate, no matter when it happens.

    Sun angle is lower (more oblique) the further north you go.  Not a huge difference between you guys and central NY, but not zero difference either.

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