cbmclean

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think so.. 

https://ibb.co/Xk3MNZC

It seems to be an effect of the Pacific Ocean vs Global warming, unless you argue that more La Nina's occur in Global warming.. what I always heard about it in the 1990s was that more El Nino's would be the effect.

It will be interesting to see how much of a recovery we get, if any, once the PDO flips back.  But even then I'm not sure how much impact the PDO has on the prevalence of Pac Puke as opposed to -PNA.

52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I follow, lol If the hypothesis is correct then yeah they're causing the problem are they not? Making them public snow enemy No. 1 (unless the elephant is ultimately causing them instead)

The hypothesis is that the hadley cell expansion is an effect of...you know.

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I move that from here on we call Hadleys Badleys...they don't deserve our respect, lol

Assuming the "Hadley cell jet steroid" hypothesis is correct (seems very plausible but years of research would be needed and not sure any PHD candidates are working on it), getting mad at the Hadley cell for Pac Puke is like force-feeding your kid caffeine and then getting mad when they act wild.

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I actually can't tell, are you being  overdramatic a la Ji,?

Never mind.

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is horrific. Probably no shot until mid Feb. How did this happen?

I actually can't tell, are you being  overdramatic a la Ji,?

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern should get good again, just in time for me to return from Seattle on the 10th.  

Wait a minute...has your level of knowledge evolved to a point where you can shut off snow when you are out of the area?

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections look like they are heading the right way as we approach early February:

Man gotta love that quadrifecta (tetrafecta?) of -PNA, +NAO, +AO, +EPO around 1/25.  Other than that teleconnections are great!

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Much appreciated, haha. I'll admit to having never seen the show (before my time ) but love the problem. It's so non-intuitive but easy to explain at the same time... kind of fascinating.

As usual, Wikipedia has a detailed write-up, perhaps too detailed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

55 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ha..one of my better creations.  I've been looking for that

I wonder in today's base state would such a burger even work anymore?

Webber hyping MJO.  Sigh

I have to admit the upcoming Sh!t the blinds pattern has snuck up on me as I was being lazy and not looking at the LR while I have been enjoying the cold.

Alas, here we are..

Skipping over the grim 6-10 there does appear to be come hope of renewed -EPO afterword which at least would help with the cold.  Not sure where we're going to get the moisture though.

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Does that mean I am going to have to hear the "everything is fine" crew blame the torch we get late Jan/Early Feb for why its too warm when we get a couple perfect track rainstorms in February?  As if to snow now we need there to NEVER be a bad pattern at all for the entire winter because we need weeks to build cold as if that is somehow not part of the problem!  

Probably, yes.  My question is: why do you care?

46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That is actually too much of a good thing verbatim. Though with the +NAO might wash. We just can't know.

Why because it might be dry like Ji mentioned?

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS has us back in colder pattern by the end of the month but it dosent look especially wet initially

 

I like the  +pna/-epo combo. 

How many feet for Mt PSU?

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought it was going to be better too. But classic DC split. We really needed a dominant stj wave to come along. If it’s all NS we’re fighting an uphill battle. 

Has the STJ been unusually dormant for a Nino?  My understanding is that STJ systems are the Nino bread and butter but seems less fruitful than hoped so far.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cleveland did 

Technically they weren't burning water per se, just the layer of pollution on TOP of the water.

https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/distillations-pod/the-myth-of-the-cuyahoga-river-fire/

We are approaching the nadir of the morale wave.

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

-PDO

That doesn't really satisfy me.  An index, any index, be it NAO, AO, EPO, PNA or whatever is a description of an observed pattern of measurements.  It is not, in and of itself a mechanistic explanation of WHY the observed pattern is occurring, or why it has certain consequences.

And saying that heights in the SW are low because the -PDO is tautological.  It's like saying that something is hot because the thermometer has high readings.    

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cherry picking.

Is it really cherry picking?  More like turd scooping.

6 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

The blue line( im gonna guess thats the 0 Celsius  line)  does move slightly south....  in my opinion. Althought if ya listen to my wife i see only what i want to see lmaoo

The blue line is the 540 dm height line, and not the better known 540 dm thickness line.  The 540 thickness line is well known to approximate line for where it is cold enough to snow, but I have no idea what the 540 height line represents.  Anybody else know.

I know you are currently frolicking in VT, but any idea if you got any on MT PsU today?

31 minutes ago, frd said:

Nice visual - here comes the cold,  the animation loop stops on Tuesday Jan 17 th . Looks 6 to 8 degrees above normal at that time. 

 

 

 

Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east?  The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves.  I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day.

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

christ

 

Winter Savior?

Just now, psuhoffman said:

No…if there is an explanation other than “the elephant” I’m open to hearing it. 
 

Sadly I have none to offer, and I haven't heard anyone else offer a convincing one.