cbmclean

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

what’s the answer? 

Hoping their wrong?

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

You could look at the 250 mb map and see where the strongest jet streams are. 

Yes I can see the jetstream at 250 MB, but I am trying to understand what features (at the surface or at 500 MB) make it strong or weak and make it point this way or that way. 

I have been hanging around here for years and have learned a lot.  But for the life of me I cannot look at a height field and visually tell what the temperatures anomalies are going to look like.

My understanding is that the current NA torch is due to a strong flow of Pacific air.  In NH plot below is there a feature or features which I could look at at and instantly say: Paciifc Fire hose?

If anyone wants to pull out the John Madden telestrator and diagram a few things that would be even better.

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good to know. I didn’t even know that there was a potential event yesterday though. 

He's up on Connecticut, reaping NE weenies.

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nope. But I would sure as S like to be in phase 8/1 in January than 4/5. 4/5 is pretty much a death nail. 

I've been complaining about it being impossible for it to go into phase 1 .  It'll be ironic it if does it in the middle of a torch.  At least it's not making it worse. 

So where are we at with the PAC Jet?  Is it too extended or too retracted right now.

Sorry, I thought this was sort of a panic space.

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I wouldn’t live a pre industrial life but we’ve known about the climate issue since the 1920s, we’ve had opportunities to switch to more renewable energy sources in the 80s, we wouldn’t need to live a pre industrial life to save the climate but instead recognize that exponential economic growth isn’t a good thing. 

But exponential economic (and its intertwined scientific growth) is the ONLY reason you and I are currently sitting in heated houses typing on computers right this second.  In fact you and I might not be alive at all right now otherwise because the carrying capacity of the planet would be much less. 

I despise warm winters to the very core of my being.   I am not a shill for big coal or even remotely a climate denier.  AGW could possibly lead to enormous human suffering down the road.  But the fact is that to this point the ledger is heavily weighted to the positive in terms of cost/benefit, at least in MATERIAL terms.  (It's much murkier when you consider mental, spiritual and aesthetic factors).

Renewables are definitely the way of the future BUT they are not easy as you can see in Europe right now.  It is quite fortunate for them tat their winter has been so mild given the currewnt situation.  It will take decades of hard work to realize, and TBH we have to realize that it might not be possible without a drastic reduction in living standards.

I guess my overall point is: don't consider yourself an innocent who has been sinned against by stupid greedy ancestors.  If that isn't really your attitude I apologize for the assumption but I hear that attitude a lot and it irks me.

3 hours ago, mattie g said:

This new mutation came a the "perfect" time to make itself known. With American family gatherings from Thanksgiving through the New Year, it was ideal for it to rip through the country. Of course it's hitting other places around the world, as well, but as for the MBY experience, this was just the perfect storm.

Hope all of you who have any respiratory issues feel better soon!

Omicron did the exact same thing last year.  We're just going to have to live with it going forward.  Take the appropriate precautions for yourself but also have some thought for the immunocompromised among us.  But life must go on.

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I guess growing up without semi normal snowfall is just another thing my generation gets to pay for others kicking doing anything about climate change down the road. 

Would you take a pre-industrial climate if you had to live a pre-industrial life?  Heck would you want a 1950's climate if you only had access to 1950 technology?  The environmental degradation caused by the industrial revolution is probably the cause of our current snow woes.  Fair enough  Would you trade it back?

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW one thing we should clear up...there is still a 50/50 low on the guidance.  Its there...as the system we are watching is in the MS valley getting its act together there is a low over the 50/50 area just like we want...its just not the sub 500 monster polar vortex of doom some guidance was showing before from a convoluted polar jet phase phase with a mid lat system leading to a bomb cyclone.  We shouldn't need all that.  

It seems we do need that now.

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The AO is negative now, and forecast to trend towards neutral by mid month. That isn't the issue.

Thanks.  I didn't look at the index before I posted.  That said I have seen info recently about the PV being anomalously strong.  I had though "strong PV" was essentially synonymous "+AO". 

I really enjoy reading your analysis and it helps me learn so much.  Would you have any interest in a brief write-up on the overall NH pattern as it currently is?  I'd like to understand the nature of our current fail pattern.  And by fail I don't mean not getting snow for this or that individual short wave, I mean "no cold air south of Ellesmere island".

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t see much blue anywhere over any mid latitude land masses. 

So did we transition from Pac puke fail to ++++++AO fail?  I missed the memo.

Are there any realistic hopes for a more favorable pattern in say late January?  Obviously the current one is unlikely to get it done.

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm seeing that across the board re: the 50/50. Definitely a crucial piece for this to work.

If it degrades even slightly the crappy air mass will be insurmountable.

Eta: Well maybe I'm a bit pessimistic, but truthfully there is not a lot of wiggle room.

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

This might be the most insane clown map I have ever seen in my 25+ years of following models. 

52.3 inches.  Buffalo is unimpressed.

43 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The 18Z GEFS looks very similar to the 12Z EPS, with most of the good snow being west of I-85...

The GEFS also shows the precipitation beginning on Friday 1/13 and lasting until 1/15.

Temperatures too warm for central NC.  EURO shows highs near 37 on Saturday during bulk of precip.  Triad and west stays around freezing.

I accept it.  Rooting for the west crew.

6 hours ago, JoshM said:

FWIW, Canadian keeps the storm on the 0z run

 

@Coldrain

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK please forgive me for the late night possibly impaired rant but I am putting aside my science hat and gonna release my inner Ji for a moment here....

I HATE THOSE GUYS...like hate hate hate Furtado with the fire of a thousand suns.  He has always been right btw, but he only seems to pop up in my twitter feed or on here when its to tell us how the MJO or some other tele isn't going to actually cause cold like we expect because of some other intervening countermanding factor.  He did this years ago showing how "actually in a nina and a -QBO Phase 1 is actually warm" crap and another time it was "during high solar and a strong PV Phase 8 is warm".  Now its "when the PV is strong ALL THE COLD PHASES ARE WARM" WTF.  And I have repeatedly asked him "then what correlates to cold during these conditions" and he has never once answered...I guess we know the truth NOTHING DOES.  Again, he is always right...but its annoying that he always shows up to explain just how FOOKED we are lol.  Oh and this is why I don't waste time on the MJO like some people.  Look at the correlation charts...the warm phases have a super high correlation to our temps...and the cold phases have almost no significant correlation!  So in other words when the MJO goes into warm phases we are definitely screwed...but when it goes into cold phases...it might not help us at all.  Great.  And if you really want to get depressed last year someone posted a chart that showed over the last 20 years just about NOTHING correlates to cold in the east... lol 

 

Sorry rant over, just had too. 

So if warm phases mean we are screwed, and "cold" phases mean we may be screwed, we still prefer the cold phases, because screwage is not certain.

Let's not hate on the LR ensembles too much.  The cold period that just passed was very disappointing, but it did occur, and it was reasonably impressive.  The current warm period was also well advertised on the models.

We need snow.

56 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest MJO….maybe we go into Phase 8 mid month.

Hmm, CFS has decent wave going into 1,2.  We can hope.  

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I’ve been wondering this but did not want to say anything until now. 

Maybe unscientific conjecture… but if mid-latitude SSTs warm faster than tropical SSTs, are we going to be in a permanent “La Nina” background state, even as tropical SSTs are just as warm as historical neutral or even El Ninos from way in the past? 

Scary thought. 

From the Wikipedia article on the Pleistocene (I know it's Wikipedia but thought it was interesting nonetheless):

According to Mark Lynas (through collected data), the Pleistocene's overall climate could be characterised as a continuous El Niño with trade winds in the south Pacific weakening or heading east, warm air rising near Peru, warm water spreading from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific, and other El Niño markers.

So if the ice age was a continuous El Nino the new warm future will be...?

Back to square 1 on GEFS and GEPS.  Day 10+ shows western trough and eastern ridge on both, somewhat less bad on the GEPS.

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So explain to me what longwave pattern works in that background state, when even in the old “normal” we needed solidly negative anomalies to snow. 

The answer is: none.

Serious question, any idea what the mechanism is for this anomaly pattern?  The mid-latitudes are on fire like its a +++++AO, but the arctic is warm as well, like its a -AO.  I know the root cause, is Lord Voldemort, but I would like to understand the nature of how hit is happening.