cbmclean

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is just ridiculous looking lmao

One of those mythical -NAO/-EPO combos that some say are physically impossible.   Any need to worry about a lack of a +PNA?

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Those numbers are probably a lot higher in a Nino. 

Interesting to note that the Greenland Ridge is the only game in town if you want a HECS.

31 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

the snowcover should recover

Well, it had recovered nicely but then it tanked again.  Perhaps it was considerably thinner than normal.  Zooming out from the eastern CONUS, the big story of the winter has been the absolute obliteration of the heartland's snow/cold by the December torch.  It was mild here but it was quite muted compared to what they had.  They did have a nice cold outbreak in January along with most of the country, but by then the damage had been done.  As the years go by it becomes more and more apparent that the events of the "pre-winter" (late November) and the first third of winter can have significant impacts on the evolution of the rest of the winter.

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you can see the wave this far out, kinda nuts. trough amps up as the block rots

I'm skeptical that it is physically possible to accurately pick up a wave that far out.  I guess we'll find out.

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

now this is more like it

Does anyone know what sort of algorithm/process they use to determine analogs?  Seems like something that would only be possible with AI/machine learning but they have been doing it for years before that stuff was around?

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a beautiful retrograding -NAO here alongside split flow and a roaring STJ. trough is in the east by the 13th, as well. no can kick in sight

 

But where's my +PNA?  i was told there would be a +PNA.  @Stormchaserchuck1 promised me a +PNA.

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe the better models will get there.

"The better models"... you mean Mr. 4th place GFS?  I voted it gets demoted to the JV with the Icon and the JMA.

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I continue to love this setup

https://ibb.co/YLmngK1

With Chuck on our side, who can stand against us?

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Lol. My mom’s gets crushed.  Calling her now to tell her to stock up. 

My parents live in Hope Mills NC, which is near the northern end of that bullseye.  Where does your mom live?

21 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

LOL!  Well, I actually used to have the handle of "Always in Zugzwang".  For what it's worth!

I must admit I miss your old name.  Zugzwang captures so perfectly the essence of being a snow weenie south of the Mason-Dixon line: doesn't matter which direction the storm moves, it's a fail.

58 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s the exact opposite course to take.  5 days and inside should be enhanced, not the 10+ make pretend 

Well if, as some speculate the Control is upgraded in resolution then you wouldn't loose much if anything in the short term and in theory you could get better long-range performance.  I know you're not particularly interested in that but maybe that is their plan.

I also wonder if their research scientists believe that there isn't much point in trying to increase the op resolution any further with current measurement technologies.  One might suspect that with chaos and whatnot, at a certain point increasing spatial resolution just leads to higher resolution noise.  They might think they'll get more bang for their buck (euro) by improving the ensembles algorithms.

NWP is a fascinating subject to me I wish there was more literature on it that was accessible to an educated lay person.

6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

But the Laughing Cow!!!  Need that to truly have an epic SBFI (gotta have some food!), and you'll be Jebdrinking like it's 2009-10!   (But you might be doing that already!)

(ETA:  3 fridges?  That might induce a triple-phased-fridger!)

Still haven't figured out your old handle.  Looking for a good PI to hire in the Bethesda area.

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Been told by Tom on our forum it means no more OP euro, it’ll only be the control and ensemble ran. Curious why they’d be doing this? Cost issues?


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Wow, seems like that would be a big step backwards in resolution for short-term (1 - 5 days) forecasting.

37 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I could watch her for the whole 60 minutes.  They should pin a camera shot in the corner of the screen.  Lol.

I don't have anything personal against her.  I recognize that she is a talented individual and an excellent performer.   I just really, really hate when the interconnected nexus that is the modern media-industrial complex drives something or someone into the ground.

Not a Raven's fan but was rooting for them big time to keep Taylor Swift out of the Super Bowl.  Turned on the TV to check the score (doing work on the treehouse) and what was the first sight to greet my eyes: Taylor Swift hugging Travis Kelce...

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Happy Birthday to Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart!  While Beethoven will ALWAYS be my #1, I truly appreciate Mozart's unique genius. Not only could he do such remarkable musical feats like writing down an entire symphony he heard one time, writing an Ocerture the morning of an opera, or even playing blindfolded with his arms crossed when he was just a child...(like I said, a unique kind of genius, lol), but he created many beloved works of such effortless, almost innocent power and sublimity. Oh had he lived more years! And yet what he did in his brief 36 years left it's mark on classical music. Again, Happy Birthday Mozart!

Mozart schmozart.  Everyone knows that Salieri was the real genius!

2 hours ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

30 inches is a bit too much snow to me. The thing is that a storm is entirely possible now given the blocking is currently forecasted on the ensembles.


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What showed 30 inches?  If you are referring to the map posted by @olafminesaw, it was showing the probability of getting >1" is about 30% for RDU.  Which is still better than baseline.

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

December 2018 did something to me...I have to filter out a rather visceral reaction to an output like that, lol

That event introduced me to the term "confluence".

Man, somebody just stole the miter saw I stupidly left on my front porch while I took the kids to the park.  I am very angry with myself for leaving it out there but I honestly feel almost violated that a thief was on my porch.  The psychology of someone who believes they are entitled to have anything they can take is honestly alien to me.

54 minutes ago, Kay said:

Not posting this to make a point or a case, mainly I just enjoyed "sneaky look" appearing in an AFD

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Troughing will persist over the Northeast CONUS much of next week as ridging over the Intermountain West is slowly shunted eastward. Within the eastern trough, a stout ULL will pivot from the Great Lakes toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday. With surface high pressure persisting over New England, there may be enough cold air in play for at least some of the precipitation to fall as snow east of the mountains (with all snow over the higher terrain anticipated). The GFS has been the most amplified with this wave, with the 27/00Z run showing an extended period of precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic. Other guidance is generally less bullish, but has the same overall pattern.

As is typically the case, uncertainty looms surrounding this system for the middle of next week. That`s because (1) the upper-level low will be at least partially cutoff, and the behavior of such lows can be erratic and hard to predict even a couple days in advance; (2) the area this system is coming from has a bit less observational data for the models to ingest; and (3) temperatures east of the mountains will be marginal, casting doubt on precipitation type.

All-in-all, the system has a bit of a sneaky look to it, and bears close monitoring. But, at least from a climatological standpoint, it is not the traditional pattern that brings significant (i.e. warning- level) snow to the lower elevations of the Mid-Atlantic.

Beyond that, models diverge quite a bit. This is because they are having trouble resolving a quasi-omega block developing over eastern NOAM during the latter half of next week. Temperature/precipitation forecasts are both of low confidence later next week as a result.

"Quasi-omega block"?  What is quasi about it?

6 hours ago, Heisy said:

Fun days ahead with this omega block. Gonna see all sorts of wild runs. We have to see how strong the “shredder” ends up being.

Congrats DT, Jesus Christ 2-3’ in VA it’s still snowing at the end of the run




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 PSU fringed

6 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Haha, yeah, decided to go with a new screen name.  I also considered it back when I first joined this site (when it was "Eastern US WX" at the time!), since I like the Leslie Howard version of The Scarlet Pimpernel!  But I guess you can only change it like once every ridiculous number of days (30,000??), so basically you can only change it once and that's it, I guess unless one asks permission to change again.  Not that I want to now, kinda like this one better than what I had before but I got so used to that I didn't bother for a long time until recently hahaha!

  Wait, who were you?

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Can someone please explain what exactly you mean when you say a 'wave breaking'?  I've been around too long I'm embarrassed asking. Maybe I know it via different terminology.

Can;t watch this myself at work, but this may be informative:

https://m.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov/videos/rossby-waves-and-wave-breaking/1527253234461813/

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Can someone please explain what exactly you mean when you say a 'wave breaking'?  I've been around too long I'm embarrassed asking. Maybe I know it via different terminology.

The concept of wave breaking is common across many types of wave phenomenon.  here is the wiki article about in a general sense for gravity waves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_wave_breaking 

Rossby waves (our kind of waves in the 500 HP pattern) apparently can also "break", but like you I am not sure what that looks like on a 500 HP plot.

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Satisfaction and happiness is a free will choice that we all make every single day. It's free, harmless, and the payoff is huge. 

I have to push back on this thought a little.  It is my hypothesis based on observations and my own experiences that some people are just intrinsically predisposed to positivity or negativity to varying degrees.  I am on the negative side.  I have been ever since I was little.  I didn't make a decision to be that way.  I can't just make it go away by choosing it.  I can fight it, and I do, but it is a lifelong struggle.  Sometimes I am successful.  Often I am not.  I suspect many others are the same way. 

I think it's fair to hope that people who have an easier time being positive have some awareness and consideration for those for whom it is not so easy.  At the same time, people who KNOW they are negative need to try and avoid bringing others down with it, because that is not fair either.