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cbmclean

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Posts posted by cbmclean

  1. On 3/23/2023 at 3:51 PM, psuhoffman said:

    I wish this would be more discussion...instead of simply chalking the SER up to the pac pattern...discuss why is the SER so much stronger than history says it should be at times...including the pac pattern into that equation. 

    I'm not sure that there is really much to discuss at the moment.  The clear leading hypothesis is that the gradually warming base state has hit a "tipping point" with a dynamic response that just happens to be associated with increased SER/WAR.  The exact mechanism(s) of the coupling are unclear but could include overly warm waters in the Gulf/West Atlantic, the Pacific warm pool, the expanding Hadley cell, some combination of all three, or maybe something completely different.  Deciphering it all could take years or maybe a decade or more as we observe the new responses through various ENSO/PDO states.  Until then, all we can do is hope some mitigating natural trends weigh in our favor.  

    Or else we could all chip in to purchase a ship that just sails around the midlatitudes spewing sulfur particulates into the air.

    • Haha 2
  2. 2 hours ago, jayyy said:


    The Sun angle is the same in New York and they’re getting 2 feet between now and Friday. It’s nonsense. Same with the “it’s too warm leading in” notion.

    I’ve seen it snow in April (higher “sun angle” than now) and 1 day after it was 60 degrees. Both of those late season excuses are untrue.

    It isn’t harder to snow in late march because of the sun angle. It’s harder to snow in late march because it’s generally less cold and we’re out of peak climo.

    Longer days could have an effect (more hours of sunlight) but not sun angle. If it’s 30-33 and snowing hard enough, it’ll accumulate, no matter when it happens.

    Sun angle is lower (more oblique) the further north you go.  Not a huge difference between you guys and central NY, but not zero difference either.

  3. 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    Ya know, I actually understand for this month. But I don't remember a nina with wall-to-wall SER on steroids. I mean that typical cold on the front end of winter never really came!

    Yes it did.  December was slightly below normal.  That is equivalent to frigid when you adjust for inflation.  And it actually had a legit cold week-ish.  Sure it was marred by the cutter.  This winter was legitimately front loaded.  Just the front load was only good in comparison to the rest of winter.

  4. 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    I don't know that the track matters much... the surface low takes an inside track but the storm is vertically stacked by then so we are still in the CCB there just isnt any cold, there is no snow really outside of elevation.  It would help if the h5 didnt close off so soon so far south...the easterly wind ahead of it just wrecks the thermals even worse then they already are.  But we're really being silly here...if this was anything close to a typical winter airmass, even a "warm" one by normal standards, that would have been a huge snowstorm on the ICON/GFS/GGEM.  We need so much to go absolutely perfectly here to overcome the thermal situation...its just not realistic to expect it.  Sure if we get super lucky and the thing bombs out perfectly and death bands us enough to snow great but man thats such a super rare anomalous thing to have to root for as our only hope. 

    Hey, would you please stop wrecking the thermals with your pessimism?  Cold air can sense negativity.

    • Haha 1
  5. Looking at that CWG post I'm struck that if this year was in isolation, it would be frustrating but not overly alarming.  In good company with 1932 and 1950 and 1890, and so forth.  Any year can be a stinker.  But the pattern is obvious.  All we can do is hope that there is some natural suckage that is adding on top of the other suckage that we shall not discuss.  And maybe we can have at least somewhat better times in the near future.  

  6. 4 hours ago, Cobalt said:

    I spy a 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 on this list as well. All years from this recent stretch of futility, and all but one (2021) went on to have an AN February. If there was any wonder as to why we've been reliably snowless during this past 7 year stretch, reliable warmth is an easy culprit. 

    Man, 1932 must have been a dog.  Also interesting to note that 2016 is on that list.  Sometimes even in the midst of warmth...

  7. 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    We’ve had small periods as bad as anything before. We’ve never had a prolonged period as bad as 2017-now. No one season or event fail alone is alarming. But the cumulative evidence is becoming worrying. 

    "becoming"?  You're book just hit the third edition.  Stormtracker's clip just got nominated for an Oscar for best short feature

    • Haha 2
  8. 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

     

    Look at the CMC. The high is perfect and it’s still all rain. It wouldn’t matter. 

    Visiting this site I've learned a good bit about teleconnections but I have almost no knowledge of storm dynamics. I gather from your posts that with the track depicted, with the high position/strength as depicted it "should" snow.  It is also my understanding that the precipitation starts as snow but melts on the way down.

    So putting those together I conclude that somewhere in the column the snow is encountering layers where the air is warmer than it "should" be given the track and high location/strength.  Where does that anomalous layer start and what is the source of the anomaly?  And yeah I know what the ultimate source of the anomaly is.  I'm just talking the proximate cause.  

    An example would be something like (I'm just making this up as an example)

    1. "The air at 700 mb and below is being sourced from the NNE and the water there is +2 C warmer than the mean."

  9. Just now, cbmclean said:

    After getting somewhat excited in December (like many of us) he has been relentlessly negative.  In his defense it's been a relentlessly negative winter.  So he's been objectively correct.

    Edit: At least so far.  I hope he faceplants hard in February but I still give it a better than even chance of the SSW effects going somewhere else and leaving us toast with our old friend the SER.

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