cbmclean

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Bet against NAM thermals at your own peril 

Exactly, that's why Im hugging the 3K NAM!!

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Darn it.

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

the 12Z 3K NAM has a LOT of moisture for central NC.  Much longer duration event.

Yeah but how bad are the thermals?

It appears we are stuck on a knife's edge between cold enough for mostly snow but too dry vs juicier but too warm aloft for snow.

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Both the NAM and FV3 turn Raleigh proper over to ZR for the majority of the event. It’s still a major possibility. Plain rain is off the table though and we will have some sleet for sure. I’m not sold on us seeing any snow until the NAM shows it at 12z tomorrow. I’ve been burnt by NAM thermals for years I’m not letting it get me this time. It is very good at assessing thermals in a miller-A. Like the best. Seeing it mix into Virginia worries me, even at range 

Having flashbacks to January 2017.

2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I agree.  I'm hoping that whatever the 3km NAM is cooking up comes to fruition.  It has alot more moisture back in the western half of NC and seems to be a fair amount slower.  I could see it putting out 0.50"+ in the Triad.

TW

Better regional performance at short lead times is literally the NAM's entire purpose for existing, so if it can't beat the globals in that regard, time to put it out to pasture.

2 minutes ago, Orange county said:

WRAL at lunch says Raleigh will be ice

How in the world?  I thought central NC's biggest problem is the cold press crushing the moisture?

19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Great run from the Canadian. Feels like that jackpot zone is coming back NW.

On behalf of Wilson, I give this run my stamp of approval.

SE weenies have to get up with the sun to tend the soybean seedlings.

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

All the models look pretty similar now if you count GEFS coming in line

Except the NAM...

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I mean. Realistically, how far south and east can it go? 

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Pretty far. There’s nothing in the upper levels preventing this from going OTS completely 

I was just going to say the same thing; this could trend to a FROPA.  For my sake, hopefully not.

29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wind underperformed big time here. Not sure we gusted over 40 and it hasn’t even been that breezy since 

Nothing to serious in Wilson; max of 26.2 mph on my PWS.  Just got breezier again though.

48 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Amen. And also. NHC does a great job, but there's a cone for a reason. Clearly we need to think about something similar for winter storms. 

Interesting.  Very little improvement between 2010 and 2020 and even a slight decrease past ~100.  Are we running up against a wall in NWP capability until we gett he next big breakthrough?  Perhaps AI?

By the time this storm is done trending it'll be a flurry off Cape Hatteras.

Nasty gradient in Wilson County.

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wilson needs 33 degree temps. Not more precip 

I just mean that the CMC shows a sweet spot for many, but further weakening is definitely on the table.  Don't want too much of a good thing.

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

A weaker system may mean less QPF, but it also means better chance of snow for central NC...  vs. a strong system that pulls warm air into the mid levels

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

CNC would rather see a weak system 

True, weaker, but not nonexistent.  We need QPF.

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Going down with the ship as any respectable captain would. I admire this! Keep sailing high and proud on the S.S. PSU2. Regardless how it transpires you win....you called this 4+ weeks ago. Much respect sir.

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

That's what kids are for!!!  At least once they're old enough.  I had to shovel our driveway every winter in northeast Ohio, and believe me that was pretty darned often!  Not that I minded since I've always loved snow.  Of course, as soon as I went to college, my parents then got a snowblower!

Funny, I used to work with a guy from Timmons Ontario (which is waaaaaaaay north) and he said the same thing.

It's fun, but you all know we're back to reality next model cycle, right guys?  Guys?  Guys?

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

I can't lie to you about your chances....but you have my sympathies.  

Thanks Ash.

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

AI is so resource-intensive! Need some more hamsters on wheels in the basement. 

Actually the Euro AI just achieved consciousness and launched a missile strike against the computers running the regular Euro.

Plus, Rhode Island has the joy of being used for area comparisons; they deserve nothing else.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why do some people prefer missing snow to the south v the north?  I don't get the Boston hate for example.  People in New ENgland deserve the snow more than me.  It's supposed to snow there...they chose to live somewhere that averages more snow so they deserve it.  When I move up there sometime for more snow...I will deserve to get the snow because I moved somewhere to get it!  

But the SOUTH???  Why does someone who knowing chooses to live somewhere that averages 10" of snow a year deserve snow?  If they cared that much they would move somewhere that snows more.  No... I would much rather miss snow to my north where the people who deserve snow are v people too lazy to move somewhere snowier.  

Because southerners are better people?  We passive-aggressively say "bless your heart" instead of flipping you off like someone from Boston. 

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa OH NO the euro takes 3 straight waves south of us...suppressed by the monster block...Where is Chucks +NAO when we need it lol 

Too much blocking!!!

Please note the "DO NOT TRIGGER WEANIES" sign.