cbmclean

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Not far from decent .... but still too broad a trough and not enough vorticity consolidation. 

I am curious how you extract vorticity consolidation, or lack thereof, from that map.  

2 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said:

She took a jab at the SE board. I responded and she got all emotional. How is that embarrassing? 

I agree that the original post could have been interpreted as unnecessary jab at us in the SE, but the mockery of their snow disappointment was poor taste in my opinion.  We had a good day today.  Let's just enjoy the feeling without trying to poop on other's parade.

I am embarrassed on behalf of the SE board.  Not all of us are like that.

6 minutes ago, KAOS said:

No disrespect to the old reaper... those will be hard shoes to fill.

Did the reaper wear shoes?  I always envisioned him with boney feet.

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

That's what happened with yesterday's storm.

Luckily, we weren't fooled for a minute, right guys?

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

That’d be the biggest storm in NC history lol

March 1-3, 1927 would like to have a word with you.  This is from Eric Webb's ridiculously interesting historical archive of NC snow events.

http://www.webberweather.com/about.html

6 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

And wouldn't that cause -Negative ao since it would just hangout over Greenland after passing up the eastern part of the us ? 

No.  -NAO means HIGH geopotential heights around Greenland.  A storm hanging out over Greenland would mean low heights there and thus a +NAO.

That being said, big storms do sometimes hang out in the area around latitude 50 N, longitude 50 W and become what is called a "50/50 low"/  Those can be just as helpful with blocking as well. 

4 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

What would stop such a strong low from becoming an app runner ?

Nothing.  With no blocking it comes down to absolutely perfect timing to keep a storm that amped from cutting to Denver.  That's why its unlikely to go down that way in reality.  Still pretty to look at.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@HighStakes pointed out this morning the long range guidance does not look bad for early Feb. this is the kind of temp profile we want to get a gradient pattern to work. 

Could you clarify as bit what a "gradient pattern " is?

36 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Too far off shore. Late bloomer.

Just where we want it for now?

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

So in order to make this happen, we need the models to suppress this off the coast until Friday night and then use the inevitable NW trend to bring it ashore.

I'm gonna say somewhere between 4 - 5 inches here in Wilson, depending on where it was measured.  May have started with 5+ before compaction.  Best snow in years here.

Just now, Stormpc said:

Nice. Never listen to storm cancel  folks. 

Except when it actually gets cancelled.  I'm looking at you, January 2017.

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Odd. 

Not odd, just different personalities.

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Good point, I’ve not been around long enough to be fully familiar with the dynamics here but it’s obvious to me that Chill’s too chill for us to tolerate chilling comments towards them

Criticism of him has a chilling effect on the board.

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Maybe my KPIs don’t align with most. I use inches more so as a guide for duration. Duration = time of enjoyment. Time of enjoyment = period of snow falling.

Do people really derive enjoyment out of pulling a ruler out of their back pocket and measuring?

 

Yes.

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Any mets on social media chiming in about lower rates in the Triangle or honking be patient.

Can you say that again?

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

it used to be 'blocking', but we so rarely see it anymore it can't be a buzz word.

Last year was pretty blocky was it not?  It sucked because all it was blocking in was mild air, but it was still blocky.

3 minutes ago, KAOS said:

no

Fine, I guess ill go found the Lower Mid-Atlantic firm.

Apparently Connecticut is its own climate zone.

21 minutes ago, KAOS said:

Does this make me an official member if the mid Atlantic crew?

22 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Central NC with close to 3 feet. Seems reasonable.

I give it my stamp of approval.

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I feel like the 00 GFS was improvement over 18Z

Let's start a mild NW trend!

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Kucheras look better than general snowfall map.  Is this because the kuchera is showing ratios higher than 10:1?

I believe so.

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS is East. Not great folks.

So were not back.