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Posts posted by cbmclean

  1. 2 minutes ago, RDM said:


    Anyone else receive an email about registering the americanwx domain in China?   

    Below is the text of the email I just received...   


    -----  Begin Text --------

    (Please kindly forward this to your CEO, because this is urgent. If you believe this has been sent to you in error, please ignore it. Thanks)
    Dear CEO,
    We are the domain name registration service company in Shanghai, China. On February 18, 2022, we received an application from Hongxiang Ltd requested "americanwx" as their internet keyword and China (CN) domain names (americanwx.cn, americanwx.com.cn, americanwx.net.cn, americanwx.org.cn). But after checking it, we find this name conflict with your company name or trademark. In order to deal with this matter better, it's necessary to send email to you and confirm whether this company is your distributor or business partner in China?
    Best Regards

    Peter Liu | Service & Operations Manager

    China Registry (Head Office)


    Tel: +86-2161918696

    Fax: +86-2161918697

    Mob: +86-13816428671

    6012, Xingdi Building, No. 1698 Yishan Road, Shanghai 201103, China

    -----  End Text --------

    That looks phishy.

    • Like 2
  2. 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

    So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the beginning of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent.

    However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low:

    So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP:

    This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain:

    I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking:

    Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

    Excellent post.  I always love to see you post in here, as the posts are info-filled and never random hype or downerism.

    This is actually a nice change of pace.  We are usually left to try and analyze why a modelled good pattern suddenly degrades, so to see a bad pattern "degrade" is a treat.

    Of course for my actual forum (the SE) this probably just means the difference between warm rain and cold rain, but I am rooting for the MA and especially the NW crew to cash in.

    • Like 9
  3. 42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

    Signal for strong CF changing to possible frozen.  I think 3 days ago this was a driving rainstorm with very strong slp headed through Illinois or Indiana.  Hopefully the ns continues the seasonal trend and drags the boundary even quicker across :weenie:


    What is a CF?

    • Haha 1
  4. 1 hour ago, CAPE said:

    The Pacific has been largely favorable the past month though, with a mechanism for delivery of legit cold into our source region. Not really comparable to the 'pacific puke'  problem we had much of last winter, where the AO/NAO was favorable for extended periods but did little good because there was no cold to work with.

    For me, that is one of the big positives from this year.  Assuming the pattern does break down after Valentines that would be a solid 5 - 6 weeks of "workable to good" Pacific, which feels like it might be more than the "workable to good" time than the previous five winters put together.  

    On the negative side, it seems like the "trend" of the complete inability to have the Atlantic and Pacific to play nicely together for any extended time is continuing.  I'm not talking about having both sides be really good at the same time; that's rarer than finding a unicorn with a four leaf clover growing out of its butt.  I'm just talking about one side being good while the other is at least workable.  The present day default state is that if one side is good the other side is a raging dumpster fire and if the raging dumpster fire by chance goes out, it immediately pops up on the other side.

    • Haha 2
  5. 26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    We actually had a -AO/-NAO for a good part of last winter, if I'm not mistaken. Just not enough cold air (and the tpv splitting into an unfortunate position).

    You are not mistaken.  We also had -NAO for a good part of this past December.  Unfortunately in both cases it was largely rendered moot by Pac Puke.  

  6. 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Maybe after saying the pattern was going to break down for the last month they are finally going to be right.  I am not saying they wont be.  I don't know.  The pattern does have to break eventually.  BUT...why do the same people that say it means nothing and deb when the super long range guidance says cold is coming...suddenly believe it totally when those same models say warm is coming???

    I don't discount long range cold totally, but I do tend to put more credence in long range warm.  I think this is rational as it us my understanding that the models have a known cold bias in the medium to long range, so if they are showing a warm signal, then I think it is more likely that there is a strong feature which is overcoming their bias.

  7. 12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    The average is 6 inches period.

    The average is somewhere between 5.1 and 5.2 inches, depending on whether or not you include years that just have a trace.

    12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    If we get no more snow this winter it will be 3 years in a row below the average.

    That's true but that isn't really that extraordinary.  Looking at the period 1990- 2020, we had 

    • Five years in a row below average (1990-1991 through 1994-1995)
    • Four years in a row below average (2004-2005 through 2007 - 2008)
    • Three years in a row below average (1996-1997 through 1998 - 1999)
    • Of the 1990's 8 out of 10 years were below average
  8. 17 hours ago, Avdave said:

    Your infatuation with New England getting screwed is really bizarre. Not sure why all the hate for a region because they are in a much colder climo and in a good location for snows.  

    Some people seem to get as much or maybe more more joy from others failing to get snow than from their own successes.  It is actually quote a common attitude I have found, although I don't understand it myself.

    • Like 2
  9. 17 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    4 in a row?

    I found the numbers and crunched them.  The RDU 30 mean for snow is 5.13 inches.  The median is only 2.5 inches.  So we are already above the median.  

    60% of years (18 of 30) during this period were below the mean.  And if we didn't get any more snow it would only be the third consecutive year below the mean.  2018 - 2019 was well above the mean: 8.9 "



    • Thanks 1
  10. 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

    No doubt Brady is the GOAT. But the cool thing is we got to watch the future of the NFL in that Bills/Chiefs game last weekend. Best football game I have ever watched in my life. And that is saying something when you are as old as me. 

    I personally find the shotgun/spread revolution less aesthetically pleasing than say the 1990's with fullbacks.  The game has swung too much to the offense for my personal taste.  Please note that I am just talking about my personal preference.  I hate it when people try to argue that their personal likes are objectively superior and their personal dislikes are objectively inferior.

  11. 4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

    Do you know what the normal was for the previous 30 year period?

    I will look in a minute, but first I have obtained the yearly snowfall amounts from 1991 - 2020.  The median snowfall is......2.5 inches, less than half the mean!  So RDU has already exceed its real "normal" snowfall for the year.  Congratulations for us all. (note, I treat "T" as zeros in my calculations

    Here is the yearly data

    1990-1991 0
    1991-1992 0
    1992-1993 2.5
    1993-1994 4.4
    1994-1995 2.2
    1995-1996 14.6
    1996-1997 0.4
    1997-1998 2.4
    1998-1999 0
    1999-2000 25.8
    2000-2001 2.6
    2001-2002 10.8
    2002-2003 7.4
    2003-2004 14.9
    2004-2005 0.9
    2005-2006 0
    2006-2007 1.6
    2007-2008 0.5
    2008-2009 7.1
    2009-2010 8
    2010-2011 9
    2011-2012 0.9
    2012-2013 1.7
    2013-2014 5.8
    2014-2015 7.9
    2015-2016 1.4
    2016-2017 0.8
    2017-2018 8.9
    2018-2019 8.9
    2019-2020 2.5


    • Thanks 1
  12. 3 hours ago, eyewall said:

    It would take another 3 incher to get us to normal.

    What do you define as normal?  For the 1991 - 2020 period, RDU "normal" (mean) is 5.2 inches: 2.6 in Jan, 1.4 in Feb, 0.3 in March, 0.1 in Nov, and 0.8 in December.  I haven't been able to find the yearly numbers to calculate a median but I am certain it is significantly less than the mean.  

  13. 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    We've wasted a few great ones since but that was the last classic hit. Last year had some great blocking. Upper air looked great plenty but when you opened up the 850 temp panels... ooof.... what a disaster. Lol

    Last year was very frustrating in that regard.  It started in November, which was a ++++++AO nightmare which torched our source regions.  That broke down but was instantly replaced with weeks-long Pac puke in December.  By January even with great blocking there was no cold to be had in the entire hemisphere.  By mid February that finally changed, but by then our blocking went "poof" and the cold dumped into the southern plains leading to historic events there.  C'est la vie.

  14. Just now, cbmclean said:

    Because good results are much more probable in good patterns and bad results are much more probable in bad patterns.

    To clarify, it might be better to say "good results are much less improbable in good patterns".  Good results are still unlikely at our latitudes.  Obviously in my neck of the woods that is even more true.

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