cbmclean

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Fugg raisins in cookies.

I don't mind oatmeal raisin as long as I am expecting it.  But if I grab one thinking it is chocolate chip, it's a disappointment when I bite into it.

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we can get the pac to back off at all I think our chances are high still.  I am acknowledging I am more nervous now than I was a month ago but I have by no means given up and put together my "time of death" winter call yet.  I still think this works out.  Just less sure than I was.  As for the age thing...yea its frustrating but I can compartmentalize.  I come on here, track, kill time, and in the moment when I analyze and dont see what I want its frustrating...then I log off and go do other stuff and it doesn't affect me at all. 

I'n your opinion, what is our most realistic path for success here?  IF (a very big if), the MJO doesn't get stuck in the MC, then it seems like it might get back the good phases right in that late Jan early Feb Nino sweet spot.  Seems like that is at least a decent hope?

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice to see the 540 line barely getting here in January as dark purple on that map.  TT must use 91-20 averages. 

I understand the significance of the 540 thickness line.  But that is the 540 height line.  Why is that highlighted?

I'm stuck with tropical tidbits on my phone.  Who has the 411 on the 12z GEPs and EPS?

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So we are waiting on a pattern change … two days into a pattern change? I feel like we should focus on the two “long shots” before pattern chasing again.

The pattern has changed, but the thermals must recover.  I think it's fair to watch for that.

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think the Dec 20-30 blowtorch was the big surprise and it’s pushed everything back

@brooklynwx99 mentioned that was linked to the unexpectedly strong +EAMT which caused thepac jet to overextend.  That said it feels like we get more bad breaks than good breaks, and when the break bad, the break BAD.

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think the idea was if the pattern went in that direction it would lock in for awhile, and not necessarily ever get to the more typical late winter Nino pattern. There are elements with this Nino that are different than previous strong events, and throw in the possibility of SSW event, could be some curveballs down the road.

Something similar happened in 2019.  The El Nino never Ninoed.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my fault. I’ve been putting off needed maintenance on my snowblower. I have all the parts just been busy so I keep procrastinating since there’s been no eminent threat of needing it. But now I realize this is way worse to the snow gods than being so presumptuous as to buy a snowblower, just taking their grace for granted.  But having a snowblower and neglecting it, as if to say “whatever” is spitting in their eye even more so. 
 

I take full responsibility and tomorrow will be performing said maintenance along with some form of ritualistic sacrifice in order to make amends. 

But some discount Frozen merchandise and feed it into the snow blower piece by piece.

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Please don't tell me how to use my app...Now, I may not need it if things go to crap...I'll just lose interest on tracking like I did last February and won't have a desire to be on here or TT, lol

I don't even have the discipline to use an app...I'll be obsessively following, rooting against our nations NWP establishment.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Given the GEFS runs today, the subjects overlapped. That's gonna happen sometimes. Ensemble runs are long range: but the 12z and 18z gefs showed (or burped) something comparable to the previous years, raising the questions.

Sure, just wanted others to be aware so the long range thread doesn't get overwhelmed.  Many of the questions you are asking about the apparent tipping point are also of intense interest to me.

Bump.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So basically, the pattern progression the next few weeks is gonna have huge implications for the future. Will be watching ensembles closely (and a bit nervously given what it could mean). Man I hope the GEFS is wrong!

 

Might be a good time to reduce the limit your app sets on your time here.

Just a public service announcement: there is a thread devoted to open ended discussion of "Will it ever snow again".

5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

we are following the jan 2016 progression right now, but maybe around a week earlier

patience is needed


 

Did 2016 have a period in early January where a NPAC ridge threw a wrench in things?

ETA: I meant ridge, not trough.

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

JB just posted about how the upcoming period has the most severe cold potential of any period he's seen in years.  Finally some good news that you can take to the bank, guaranteed.  

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Not necessarily. In 2016 the long wave pattern flipped very early January but we had to suffer a couple more rainstorms in the following weeks even in a great long wave pattern because it took a while to establish enough cold.  So long as the progression toward a -nao remains we should eventually be ok. 
 

My frustration with that 6z run yesterday was that such a perfect h5 solution should have been able to overcome the reap antecedent thermals. But it would take something extreme like that until we get a truly colder thermal profile in place.  The pattern has flipped. The North American thermals will be cooling. But it might take a while. 
 

That said I’ve been open about the elephant in the room. If we get the canonical pattern we expect in a Nino and it’s just too warm all winter at least we’ve answered the question and it’s settled. 

Are you still mostly unconcerned about the NPAC ridge and the associated SER reflection?

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Seems to be the same issue as gefs. Colder dry members are skewing the temps but all the members with a storm are warm. 

Is it time to panic?

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.  

I had always thought that was a Yogi Berra quote.  But apparently it has an older and richer history.

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/

Just ignored my second poster.  I was told it gets easier the second time.

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

As I recall not too long ago the last time, we got a SSW all the cold air dumped west of the Mississippi, and we went into the 60's and near 70 degrees. 

The last one I recall was in Jan/Feb 2021 which I believe led directly to the great arctic outbreak in the Midwest in February (see @Jebman's epic post).  Of course that did nothign for the east coast.

SSWEs are enormously complex like most weather phenomena but I have a simple mental  model which I think is useful.  A SSWE is either going to couple with the troposphere or not.  If it doesn't couple, then of course it is useless to us.  If it does couple, SOME area of the NH is in for an arctic outbreak, but where exactly that occurs is highly variable as many other have pointed out.

I haven't done any research but based on comments I have seen from the twitterati as well as my own common sense I strongly suspect that the location of any outbreak is not just uniformly random but is influenced by the already existing hemispheric pattern.  If so then it makes perfect sense that the SSWE in say 2021 did nothing for us because as we all know our base state has been heavily tilted to SER pattern, essentially acting as a shield discouraging arctic discharge in our neck of the woods.

Given, the different base state this year I think it is entirely reasonable to hope for a higher probability of impact if the SSWE were to occur (and assuming that it couples).  So I for one am still hoping for one.     

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m upset the transient pac ridge leads to about 12 hours of muted ridging in the east. It’s awful. 

Please do not provoke the SER.  It achieved consciousness last year and it is aware of all mockery.

54 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

In an attempt to lighten the mood, fantasy range WB GFS 18Z northern plains windchills, first time I have seen this in forever....hint of things to come?????

I think we've been kind of blocking it out because we've been wallowing in the misery of an endless SE ridge, but flyover country has had several notable cold outbreaks over the last few years.  So it can still get cold, there at least.

Here's the on that almost brought modern civilization to its knees in Texas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Interesting the lowest wind chill on that scale is -100.   How often does that happen?  

I suspect very, very rarely anywhere outside of Antarctica.  Here is a copy of the "official" chart from WEATHER.GOV.  You'd have to have below -45 F with > 60 mph winds.

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Check out the GEPS

I like the -NAO, but not a fan of the +EPO or -PNA.  is this a "good" look?

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

I had to take phys161/262/263 at umd for my concentration. Quite a few formulas to remember, to say the least. I got an A in diffeq, but was happy to just pass those courses lol…so much material, though I heard quantum physics is when things got real.

Actually, I hear with quantum physics things just get kind of fuzzy.