cbmclean

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Op Euro was gonna look nothing like the 18Z GFS if it ran past 144, thats for sure

In the MA thread there has been discussion about how bad the GFS has been performing lately, besides the euro, CMC, UKIE, the Euro AI is also trouncing it.  Perhaps time to relegate it to the JV along with the ICON and the JMA.

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Big increase one run, big decrease the next. 

We would be better served to look at the medians anyway, as they are not skewed by the outrageous totals of a few outliers.   Not sure if any site provides the medians?

This might sound silly but my eyes have been dazzled by all the pretty maps; what is the actual timeframe of the event that we are trying to reel in?  1/21?

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

18Z GEFS mean snow:

That would be perfect for a northwest trend if it was 2 days out.  

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Still a lot of time for some waffling back and forth.

Yeah but it generally tends to waffle more back and less forth,

Needless to say, we are rooting for the GFS solution against the Euro, which is not a nice place to be :(.

1 minute ago, yoda said:

KRDU at 204 @SnowGoose69

 

Ouch.  Now THAT is a warm nose.  It's like 55 F at 800 HP.

We're getting toO exuberant.  The letdown will be painful.

32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Honestly an impressive string of runs for ENC

What is this thing called "snow" of which you speak.  We in ENC do not understand...

I see we have recovered from the sugar high of those back-to-back GFS/Euro runs yesterday.  All hope is still lost; carry on.

Still looks like the GEFS and EPS are predicting the "Pacific Ridge" regime in the extended.  I'm less sure of this now than I was before, though.  Could this be the inverse of previous El Nino years (think 2018-19, and 2023-24) where the extended guidance endlessly spat out a canonical Nino response?

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

High temp in Fairbanks AK today was nearly 50F above normal 

Any idea what is causing that extreme anomaly?

4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

No real ensemble support, this is as very likely much a fantasy as the 17" in Augusta that one long range model run had for this last storm.

 

Let us dream for 6 hours.

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the 1/12 12z run of the ECMWF showing the possibility of another 1"+ snowfall in Atlanta (Days 9-10), it should be noted that the last winter that saw two 1" or more snowfalls in Atlanta was Winter 2013-14. For now, that's a reference point, and I have no comments on the actual amounts shown on what was an aggressive ECMWF output. We'll see how the pattern evolves.

"Aggressive".  You have a flair for understatement, sir.

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I would just have to laugh if I’d verified like this, thankfully it won’t cause next run will be completely different.

 

This is SE weenie approved.  I'll see myself to the door, thanks.  You guys will have the last laugh when I stare sadly out the window at cold rain while you shovel when it moves north.

21 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The overrunning signal late next weekend is clear as day. We’re about to spend a week gnashing teeth on where that cold front stalls. 

Would you mind explaining what you mean by "over running signal".

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Biggest concern in this pattern would be cold stuck west of apps. Ridge orientation out west will be crucial to make sure cold is directed east and not just into Deep South. Does look like a wetter pattern. There will be chances. The 20th timeframe seems to be the next big threat. As models show, additional cold thereafter. Could be a fun end to Jan and, dare I say, start to fab Feb???

THIS!  As much as I love them in CAD events, I hate the Apps during -EPO cold outbreaks.  It's also frustrating that for some reason the model physics can't resolve how they block low level cold air so they constantly tease us.  

17 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I moved up here a little over three years ago, and it does feel relatively close to the snow climo I remember in the foothills of SC back when I was a kid in the 90s. I don't actually think it's quite that "bad," but it's not far off, realizing the last three years hasn't been awesome for this area. Side note: I was shocked when I read yesterday than Greenville (and RDU and other areas) had gone 1,000+ days without snow.

Yes CLT and RDU broke that streak yesterday but but by the bare minimum.  Very little snow actually fell.  It was mostly sleet and frz rn

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a small sample size so far but early returns are encouraging yes. We have to be realistic. The longer scale slow degradation is likely to continue. But this is a sign that perhaps a much larger % of our woes was pdo related. 
 

A realistic expectation of the next positive snowfall cycle might be if we can return to the base state of 2003-2016 with perhaps a 10% reduction in snowfall. I can live with that. Especially considering the alternative. 

I'm definitely encouraged about what might happen for the MA in a good pattern.  But as you have stated in multiple write-ups one of the most damning aspects of the whole situation is the fact that the MA used to be able to sometimes get nickels and dimes even when the pattern had flaws.  But over the last period, any sort of pattern flaw led to complete failure.  I will feel more optimistic once you start periodically succeeding even when there is something "off" in the pattern.

And yes that is important to me as a SE weenie.  Because if your snow climo turns into my snow climo and you need absolutely everything to be right to get decent snow, then it doesn't take a weather genius to guess what MY snow climo is going to turn into.

30 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Pretty much human nature. We don’t want bad things to happen, so we try to wish good things into existence and we don’t want to get carried away when things seem to be too good.

There’s also the whole PTSD thing from sucking pretty hard for pretty much the last eight years…

I have a similar armchair psychology guess, based on insights into my own nature.  If you think about it, failing during a good pattern could be considered much more threatening than just being in a bad pattern and fulfilling expectations.  So when a potentially good period appears on the horizon we want to downplay it to reduce psychological pain that would occur if it fails.  Sort of a defense mechanism.  

7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So we punting thru the last week of January now due to too much cold? 

Shit the (frozen) blinds.

A 5 minute period of moderate snow in Wilson nicely whitened the ground up, but back to sleet now.  I am shaking my fist at the warm nose.

Light snow in Wilson.

@psuhoffman

We never did get a trip report.  How was the snow/temps in BC?

Where is a good site for radar coverage with p-types?

The lightest of sleet here in Wilson.  Temp oozing down 33.1 now.