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cbmclean

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Posts posted by cbmclean

  1. 12 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

    It’s at the very end of the EPS and GEFS, so obviously YMMV, but you can see the start of the process shown on the weeklies and GEFSX to get us a trough in the east. That’s what I will be watching this week. 

    So there is only one question: was the can kicked today, or did it hold serve?  Seems like it held serve...so far.

  2. 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    Dang...so now Lamar is the last starting QB standing in the AFC North. I am PRAYING he stays healthy after what we've gone through the last two seasons!

    Poll question: would you trade a Ravens super bowl for a January 2015 redux?

  3. 2 hours ago, 87storms said:

    I didn't really follow college football this season, so that may be true re FSU's schedule, but it's pretty stupid that an undefeated ACC team doesn't get a chance to win the title.  College football can be fun, but it's an incredibly flawed playoff system.  March Madness >>> CFP

    All playoff systems are flawed in the sense that deserving teams are sometimes left out.  The solution to that is to just invite everyone to the playoff.  But of course that makes the regular season worth dog-shyte.  The criticality of the regular season was one of the things I always loved about College football.  Compare with the yawn-inducing college basketball season or the 6-month exhibition that is the NBA regular season.  

    Don't worry though, next year we go to 12 teams.  Soon it will be 16, then maybe 32.  

  4. 25 minutes ago, Ji said:


    I kinda remember this? It felt like op models at times has a better bead on the pattern than ensembles

    I remember being teased by both the Ops and the ensembles multiple times but I think we usually disregarded the top at range, and rightfully so.  I know we want that particular op to be right.

    • Like 1
  5. 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

    there is a transient period of MC forcing as the MJO circles back around to 7-8-1. i wouldn’t worry about it too much

    For sure, the 4-6 loop been progged for some while.  I'll just be happier when I see it in the rear-view mirror. 

  6. That said, I do distinctly remember a period just after New Years last winter where a big GOA low set up for a week or so and everybody was commenting on how Nino-like it looked.  But after a week or so it was gone and we went back to the Nina-fail.

    Maybe this is just the payback for that escapade.  

  7. 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

    i highly doubt it. Strong El Niños often feature a trough in the SW US anyway

    a ridge over the E US is to be expected. it’s nice to see the persistent -AO/NAO though. that bodes well

    IMG_3616.png.be5a7e3a19849cc0185cfe8b15e22037.png

    Yeah, but that's the canonical Nino eastern CONUS Nino torch, with the big low off the waters near AK.  What's being progged is the canonical strong Nina Pacific Warm Blob which has haunted us for the past several years.  They both fail for us, but for different reasons.  PSUs point is that if the Nina-esque forcing starts shunting aside the Nino forcing, we're not just in for a bad December.

    • Like 3
    • Weenie 1
  8. 53 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

    I think that is almost a given.  A stable boundary layer is going to be much more susceptible to emitted long wave radiation from all of the “stored” urban heat.  

    I wouldn't think the LR radiation would be the culprit.  It would go through the dry air with little heating, whether the air is moving or not.  I would think the factor of moving air would be its ability to carry away the heat being transferred by convection.  Sort of like wind-chill for the earth 

  9. 12 minutes ago, Jebman said:

    We have a winnah.

    Yep, Mid Atlantic is gonna see a lot of snow this winter, in and out of the Panic Room. Its going to be so cold, the Panic Room might freeze over. The Reaper might freeze to death and we'll find him in the spring.

    I've heard he chills easily because he doesn't have much skin on those bones.

    • Like 1
  10. 5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

    We lost 8 inches of snow cover within 24 hours of the snow stopping. Would much rather prefer a Valentine's Day 2007 event where we got the storm on the front end of the pattern change and we went vodka cold for a few days after. We just don't get good winters here anymore unfortunately.

    If you're that picky about your snow, you're behind the eight ball going in.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
  11. 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

    this is likely the case the further we go into winter

    My understanding is that El Nino winters are often backloaded, so this would make sense.  My personal goal as a SE weenie is just to have December be seasonable instead of a torch. That would be a huge win.  

    Maybe you guys can get lucky with good timing with marginal temperatures.

    ETA: I meant lucky with marginal temps in December.  Hopefully No luck needed in Jan Feb.

     

     

  12. Multiple Ravens/Chargers connections in my fantasy matchup this week.  I have Gus Edwards and Justin Tucker.  My opponent has Austin Ekeler, Cameron Dickler, and the Ravens D.

    I guess that means I root for Edwards to dominate on the ground but for Lamar to get sacked back to the 50 yard line and Tucker to hit multiple 60+ yard fields goals.  Meanwhile the Ravens D to crush Ekeler and Dickler but let everybody else run wild.

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