cbmclean

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hasn't the GEFS schooled the EPS wrt the LR last 3 or 4 years? Let's cool our collective jets. Yes, the EPS is a unicorn look. Just.....just let's get closer and get the GEFS on board or some support. BTW, I'm all in for Jan-Feb. Have been since Nov and nothing I see can convince me otherwise attm. 

Last I heard the GFS was in fourth place for the global 500 HP metric, behind the euro, Canadian and ukmet.  Now I'm not sure if that was only talking about the operational or includes their ensemble systems as well.  Also not sure if there is any difference in global performance vs NH LR patter in the cold season, which is what we really care about.  I wish I had some idea where to get that data easily.

28 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

looks great, favorable storm track with plenty cold, amazing eps run

Since @Ji be asleep on the bus I will fill in:

Ah man, you can already see to the backside of the good pattern.  A definite degradation from 300 to 360.

Oh dear, the mood flipped.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The forum mood graph should indicate we are on the increasing slope of the sine wave and approaching peak.

We're always happiest just before the crash

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure how anyone can see these kinds of setups and not get excited about the rest of the winter. loaded southern stream showing up later in the month. wait until we get a legit -NAO to establish a 50/50 ULL and you're golden

I'll get excited when I see the jet extension chill a bit.

Apparently, Jebman is an optimist about snow but a pessimist about rain.

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

It's not just the Pacific air itself. It's the flow that blocks the cold from getting out of Siberia (it's been f'ing cold as Dante's hell there), across Canada, and down into our neck of the woods.

We've been dealing with the flow for quite a few years now, but there's nothing to say that it's something that won't change again within another few years.

I don't really think that actual cross-polar flow (from Siberia) is super common for us or that it is the normal way we get "good cold".  My understanding is our normal cold source region is the Mackenzie river valley area.

And while agree that the Pac Puke has been more common over the last 7 years than before, we the CONUS several notable cold air outbreaks in that time.  Unfortunately it seems that most of them have been targeted at the middle of CONUS, perhaps as a result of the persistent SER over those years.  For example the great southern plains outbreak of 2021 which nearly brought the power grid to its knees.  Back in late 2017 early 2018 we had an epic cold snap that set records in terms of duration of below 32 °F.  I even hit 0 F at my house in the coastal plain which is almost unheard of.  

As usual it is a matter of degree and probability.  Pac Puke is more common than it used to be.  But it is not universal.

ETA: I mean the NC coastal plain; yes I am a spy from the SE forum.

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

“actually Nunavut is gonna be +20 so nobody cares if it’s -1 along the EC” as it’s literally snowing 

Speaking of that, has anyone been paying attention to the trends on the JCI (Jet "Chill" Index)?  Are we still on track to get it to calm down a bit so the source regions can start to recover.

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, you’re probably correct there. those years usually don’t have amazing Pacific patterns

Well I was assuming he was talking about "nino good" which is good in the sense that it has a strong STJ and promotes east coast troughing, which is great as long as there is enough cold air to mix with the moisture.

If he was just referring to the generic EPO/PNA good then i agree 100%.

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i can pretty much guarantee that if we see a strong -NAO there could be a prolific period as long as the Pacific isn’t absolute garbage. we are seeing a strong STJ and zero indication of any persistent SE ridging 

Sure, but that is not what I trying to talk about.  Ralph said "a good PAC can overcome a meh Atlantic".  I agree that can be true for a nice EPO/PNA dominant pattern, especially down in my neck of the woods since the dry arctic cold of a direct -EPO shot can sometimes move the storm track right over me with cold air.

But in an east-based nino a "good" pacific is one that almost always has some tendency inject Pacific air, and the -NAO appears to be critical in modulating that.  So what i am trying to say is that I am not sure a good east-based nino Pacific can overcome a meh Atlantic. 

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

One serious deluge. Anyone opening a thread? 

Man I hate seeing rain in Quebec in mid/late December.

Actually what I think I have learned is that THE critical factor is always whichever one sucks for us at a given time.

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thing I've learned over the past several seasons....a good PAC can overcome a meh Atlantic. And more often than not a good Atl with a crud PAC does us no good. There are exceptions but I almost always look to the PAC side first before seeing what the Atl is doing. 

Yeah but based on PSU's findings it appears that the NAO may be more important in the average west-based Nino because it helps modulate the alwaye Nino tendency to inject Pacific air into NA.

I agree that in Nina the PAC is an absolute.  If it is flooding us with Pac Puke then forget the NAO.  If we have a nice EPO or PNA ridge, then perhaps the NAO is of less consequence.

7 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Nerds

Geological epoch.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?

The @psuhoffman lending library has many volumes you could check out on this topic, but in your heart of hearts, you know the answer to this question already

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We're in a bad decadal cycle in the Pacific (last 25 years):

https://ibb.co/nkdRM0v

And a higher frequency of La Nina 

https://ibb.co/GnzTZ0y

La Nina is up on El Nino 15-9 since we went +AMO in 1995. 

I thought El Nino vs La Nina was modulated by the PDO as opposed to the AMO.

17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I think if we try hard enough we can get 5 or 6 more people in the mid/long range thread to tell us how next week won't work.

I saw what you did.

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll be sure to post Webb’s 9 tweet thread about it and the never ending torch when he gets it posted 

Be sure to include lots of flame emojis.

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

I have had a horrible month at work so a Christmas miracle would be great

Tell your boss that the NAO has degraded on the long range guidance and as a result you need to take a few extra weeks off to watch the models.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Welcome to 3 pages ago. Let me know when you hear about Elvis. 

He still lives and no one can tell me any different!!

In other news, a link for the curious to the CPS MJO weekly write-up

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Summary: there is a disagreement between the dynamical models which predict the wave dies (potentially due to destructive interference from a CCKW in the Indian Ocean), and the "RMM forecast" which favor continuation of the wave into 7 and beyond.  

Not sure what entity/model is the "RMM forecast" other than the models, but I sure hope they are right.  I've heard many people that the models tend to kill waves too quickly so maybe...

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

FWIW after delaying the transition to phase 8 of the MJO the past couple days, the most recent GEFS run sped up and gets us to phase 8 around Christmas. It would be hard to imagine that if this plays out we wouldn't see a marked improvement to the pattern.

Honest question, does it "count" if it tunnels through the COD to get to phase 8?  Not used to seeing that.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

These are all very good points. But going from a super majority consensus to a split camp scenario which seems to be what you’re implying, is still a move in the wrong direction. And no they aren’t super reliable. Frankly they suck at those ranges. But we were noting when they looked great. I’m simply noting when they don’t.  Is it some super awful sign no, but it’s also not a good thing to see guidance move the wrong direction.  
 

I’m frankly a little surprised by the pushback the last two times I simply made an objective observation/analysis of what the guidance showed.  I didn’t make any predictions at all. Actually I’m in record with above normal snow and said I’m sticking to that for now. No one pushed back a couple weeks ago when I observed how the same exact guidance I’m pointing to now looked great. No one had arguments why it didn’t look great or why it wasn’t with looking at. It was just a bunch of likes. Now I do the exact same thing, the only difference is the guidance isn’t so awesome and it’s a bunch of “but this that ie the other” arguments. 

If the opinion of a random SE weenie (who has latched on to this forum like a tick), makes any difference to you, I appreciate your unbiased and intellectually impartial analysis.  Please keep it coming.

I just ignored my first ever person on here.  I feel dirty.

59 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

extratropical forcing is leading to a huge momentum pulse from the Pacific jet… a +EAMT, to be exact. models under did the influence of this forcing, but luckily, it’s temporary

I think I may have read something about how stout +EAMT events can help destabilize the PV.  Anyone else ever hear of that?

42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean...yeah I kinda wish they would, but at the same time ya don't wanna have too many strict rules either. Yes it can be annoying (unless it's being used as an example to demonstrate how a particular setup could work), but all we can do is try to ignore it!

The problem is that individual isn't doing it just out of lack of knowledge.  He is a known troll who has haunted the tropical forum for several years now.