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Posts posted by cbmclean

  1. 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    I really hope they go all in and make the FV3 based short range ensemble package a worthwhile tool because the idea is really good they just totally failed in the execution with the SREF and the HRRR.  

    I was under the impression that the SREF and the HRRR were primarily intended for forecasting warm-season sever weather.  Maybe they are more useful there.

  2. 3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

    Realistically, Tuesday. I’ve tentatively explored flights for tomorrow if things were to shift fully forwards a GFS-esque event overnight but I’m probably not willing to make the $500 investment. Probably.

    Just curious, what are you up to in San Juan.  My wife and I honeymooned there.  Great town.  Good food.  Not good for snow.

  3. 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

    I wanna hear someone defend this model.

    Well it actually looked quite similar between the two time stamps, with the exception of the glaringly obvious snow shield.  I would love to know the details of what happened in the math of the model.

  4. 37 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

    I'm right near Baltimore, and I do recall a VERY COLD stretch of weather at the very end of December/beginning of January in 2017/2018. It didn't escape the 20s for like 10 consecutive days. I think there were a couple days in the teens as well. I specifically remember it because a major lake nearby froze completely over. Honestly the last memorable winter event I can remember. 

    Probably the favorite weather event of my life so far.  Had shore ice developing at the Outer Banks.  Lakes froze over in Wilson which is in the NC coastal plain.  Hit 0F at my house one night after a snow.

    • Like 2
  5. 50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    He only cares about hunting for the big dogs. He gets so many 1-3" events it's like a passing flurry to him.

    He's still digging out at Mt. PSU from last year.


    • Like 1
  6. 2 hours ago, gopper said:

    PSU playing it low today.  Guess he expects to be "fringed".  Or he is enjoying NYE already.

    Selfishly spending time with his family instead of obsessing over model runs.  Disgraceful.

    • Haha 3
  7. 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

    But the pac looks good…isn’t that what everyone wanted???

    Just for educational purposes, what is the mechanism for the warm air in the conus with that look?  I assume that there is a AK vortex and I know that "cuts off the cold air" but how?  As someone else mentioned the streamlines are straight from the Northwest Territories.  Not questioning the model's math, just seeking to understand the mechanics.

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