cbmclean

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So explain to me what longwave pattern works in that background state, when even in the old “normal” we needed solidly negative anomalies to snow. 

The answer is: none.

Serious question, any idea what the mechanism is for this anomaly pattern?  The mid-latitudes are on fire like its a +++++AO, but the arctic is warm as well, like its a -AO.  I know the root cause, is Lord Voldemort, but I would like to understand the nature of how hit is happening.

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

than the obvious “we need arctic air” which is and always has been an exceptionally rare event.

I know you have repeatedly said that MA "should" not need cross-polar flow to get snow, but did you really regularly get "workmanlike" snows with pac puke?  Using the standard airmass type nomenclature (not sure who defines this) I would equate "pac puke" with "maritime polar", "domestic cold" with "continental polar" and cross-polar flow with "continental arctic".  So before was a good bit of MA snow coming with mP airmasses?

17 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I was surprised that he used the ext gefs to make a point about the strength of the SPV.  I mean, a D10 forecast is pretty flimsy when it comes to predicting this stuff let alone 30 days.

I don't know the dude he is replying to but he is making a point about a D10-15 op run.  Which in itself is flimsy...

So right now, do we care at all what goes on with the SPV?  I was under the impression it only mattered (good or bad) if it was tightly coupled with the TPV.

19 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

At least it's a lot cheaper than other hobbies.  By a long shot!

I don't know.  therapy bills are pretty expensive.

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB day 14 GEFS….is this a strat. warm that if correct could shake up the pattern?

More a strat stretch.  Nothing much to get excited about. 

10 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Or… it’ll show a workable pattern again at 0z tonight

The GEFS dropped 40” for the DC - Bal Corridor between now and February 3rd less than 48 hours ago. I don’t trust any model from 384 out, ensemble or otherwise. All of the waffling we’re seeing day to day on long range models indicates a pattern shift is definitely coming. I wouldn’t read much into the specifics until we get closer, as we’ve seen a crazy spread in outcomes over the past few days alone

Certainly.  Just noting the crappy results for that one model on that one run.

00z GEPS looks ugly at 384.  -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, hints of a Pacific Doom Blob.

0z CMC give a bit of blue over you guys hours 198 -210.  

Seems like 00z GFS was same as 18z in that after the big cutter I counted three short waves going Off The Shore.

Alert the media, all three NC climate sites had below average temps for December.  

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Now THATS a signal. Deep eastern slight neg tilt trof on the means. 

EPO domain looks nice as well.  50/50 high though.  More WAR woes?

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? 

Well that's classic Nina climo for one reason.  Not sure why Eric Webber was seeming so sure unless part of his campaign to drive NE snow weenies crazy.

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Hope that isn't the case. Punting all of December and February and the first half of January leaves us with two weeks of prime climo and hail mary's in March.

I wouldn't say December was punted.  More like we kept fumbling.  The Arctic blast was like a 98 yard run down to the 1 yard line that yielded no points.

25 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

TT only lets us see out to 144 and I'm too cheap to get WB for now.  Is it good or bad?

Never mind I misread that as talking about the EPS.

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So I guess we're not gonna talk about the Euro H5 at 240

TT only lets us see out to 144 and I'm too cheap to get WB for now.  Is it good or bad?

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

isn't your independent variable here time, so that is what you are using to try to explain the variance in your observed data (snowfall)?  Let's ignore the fact that running a simple linear regression on a time series, especially when there is a cyclical component here (thus the observations are not all IID), is problematic.  But if you are trying to see if a warming base state would be used, you'd think you'd include something reflecting that in your analysis (and not just time).

Starting off with a linear regression is not unreasonable even if we suspect that the observations are not IID.  I'm not completely sold on the existence of cycles, at least on a decadal scale.  Purely random data can show lots of clumps suggestive of patters which are not really there.  It would be very interesting to put the data through some sort of Fourier analysis to see if there any real periodicity, but I don't have the tools for that.

I'm assuming everyone saw that Pele has passed away.

On 12/28/2022 at 4:40 PM, Amped said:

So we're waiting for that early February pattern change again?

Yep- February of 2024.

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Inappropriate is subjective.

That is true.  

On 12/17/2022 at 2:46 PM, nj2va said:

Tracking shorts or sweats for New Years Eve?

Shorts.

Has Ravensrule always made inappropriate posts?

I guess the idea to move statistics discussion here didn't work out.  Stats haters can't blame me.

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We've seen WAR help us before just last January iirc. But yeah, 9 out of 10 times what is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again!

I dub thee God of WAR.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here it is:

By the way, what is the definition of "Season Length"?  First frost to last frost?

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now that too would be the second time in 3 years...have we ever seen 2 raging +AO seasons in such a short span?

The previous raging ++++++AO season was 2019 - 2020, so that is 2 times in four seasons.