cbmclean

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I really hope they go all in and make the FV3 based short range ensemble package a worthwhile tool because the idea is really good they just totally failed in the execution with the SREF and the HRRR.  

I was under the impression that the SREF and the HRRR were primarily intended for forecasting warm-season sever weather.  Maybe they are more useful there.

31 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

So you were just throwing a turd in the punch bowl.  

Please do not judge all visitors from NC by that post.

7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

before the normies hear about this.

Maybe we can call them "muggles".

23 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Charles de Gaulle would approve. 

 

 

 

 

That wins the thread awards for Most Obscure Historical Reference.

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Disaster for what?

 

 

They are talking about the Friday system currently looking way SE on the latest GFS.

GFS exploding on the MA peeps.  They're going bonkers over there.

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Realistically, Tuesday. I’ve tentatively explored flights for tomorrow if things were to shift fully forwards a GFS-esque event overnight but I’m probably not willing to make the $500 investment. Probably.

Just curious, what are you up to in San Juan.  My wife and I honeymooned there.  Great town.  Good food.  Not good for snow.

The MA weenies are dragging this N with sheer will power.

26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I wanna hear someone defend this model.

Well it actually looked quite similar between the two time stamps, with the exception of the glaringly obvious snow shield.  I would love to know the details of what happened in the math of the model.

37 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I'm right near Baltimore, and I do recall a VERY COLD stretch of weather at the very end of December/beginning of January in 2017/2018. It didn't escape the 20s for like 10 consecutive days. I think there were a couple days in the teens as well. I specifically remember it because a major lake nearby froze completely over. Honestly the last memorable winter event I can remember. 

Probably the favorite weather event of my life so far.  Had shore ice developing at the Outer Banks.  Lakes froze over in Wilson which is in the NC coastal plain.  Hit 0F at my house one night after a snow.

So history lesson time.  What is the beef between PSU and Vice-Regent?

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He only cares about hunting for the big dogs. He gets so many 1-3" events it's like a passing flurry to him.

He's still digging out at Mt. PSU from last year.

2 hours ago, gopper said:

PSU playing it low today.  Guess he expects to be "fringed".  Or he is enjoying NYE already.

Selfishly spending time with his family instead of obsessing over model runs.  Disgraceful.

25 minutes ago, ChillinIt said:

CRAS is AMPED & Juiced!!!

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_ref_m_loop.html

What the neck is the CRAS?

54 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Channeling your inner @ravensrule

I had the exact same thought.

I hate that for you man.

The potential storm aside, any thoughts about the mid-long term pattern?  Seems as if the GEFS was maybe backing away from the ledge a bit on an immediate return to the "Arctic Low" regime perhaps?

3 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Someone had to start it.  70 degree Christmas and New Years....off to a good start.    

It's just not right without the reaper.

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But the pac looks good…isn’t that what everyone wanted???

Just for educational purposes, what is the mechanism for the warm air in the conus with that look?  I assume that there is a AK vortex and I know that "cuts off the cold air" but how?  As someone else mentioned the streamlines are straight from the Northwest Territories.  Not questioning the model's math, just seeking to understand the mechanics.

2 hours ago, H2O said:

This was the only boat I could find 

You're gonna need a bigger boat.

Sigh; GFS on an island.  Can it score a coup?

17 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Still say watch 1-08.. no negative anomalies in the arctic

Chuck, I have to ask where you get your plots.  Its like you tap directly into the GFS mainframe or something.

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS is a lot different from 12Z EPS…so I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks which is correct…

 

Hello Pac Puke, my old friend...

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Maryland football clearly misses the ACC…

I always thought that theove was a bad idea for them.  I guess the siren song of the $$$ was too much to resist.

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But the ICON pretty much made the same move.

Ok, I’m back in.

Hope springs eternal.