cbmclean

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Enough pointing out the -pna. We’re in a -pdo cycle. The pna is going to be the dominant base state so long as we’re in this pacific cycle and that could last a long time.  The PDO runs in both short and longer cycles. We were in a -pdo predominant from the 50s through the 70s. 80s-2016 it was predominantly positive. We’ve clearly flipped negative. And might be in that the rest of our lives do stop pointing out the obvious when the pna is going to be negative almost all the time!  
 

instead what do we need to snow in a -pna?????…We snowed plenty during previous -pdo cycles during a -pna. The typical way was with a -nao forcing the western trough to broaden and energy to cut under the block into the southeast. In past -pdo cycles +AO/Nao periods were god awful but -AO/NAOs were snowy. 1958, 1060, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1979 all were extremely snowy with a predominantly-pna!  In all those years the nao is why. 

The composite of our snowiest  winters during the last 30 year -pdo cycle. 

but focus just on the pac 

it’s its same exact pac pattern you keep saying is why we won’t snow. But we got dumped with snow in all those years!  
 

So why isn’t the nao working anymore?  And if it isn’t since we’re going to have a -pna just about all the time what do we need to snow in a -pna? 

Honest question for you sir: is the question above rhetorical?

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z gfs has some 1987ish shit happening post 324 hrs.

What happened in the MA in 1987?

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

719

Is that an angel number?

Just now, CAPE said:

And ofc the 12z GEFS doesn't resemble the op run for the same period where it tried to bury a deep trough into the SW. HL ridge bridge too.

I think Ralph might object to the WAR.  

Seriously though, is there a reason that WAR wouldn't be a problem?  The -NAO isn't really a block there, just a Greenland heat dome.

Just noticed @brooklynwx99 posts in the NE subforum.  He's not just a bigamist like me but a trigamist!

2 hours ago, usedtobe said:

Interesting that 1964-1969 was a snowy period. 

I guess it Usedtobe colder.

23 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I sure do hope some of you don't act this way in real life

This IS real life.  I just work to pay for internet to support my weather habit.

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is on board

I like the extension of the heights into Alaska, but doesn't this screen cold dry/warm wet?

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Hot dog emoji


.

Pretty, but a day 12 op?

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

these wobbles never happen with rainstorms...

Yes they do, we just don't monitor them obsessively for 28 model runs across 5 models.  Well, maybe @Jebman does.

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

DCA did officially record a trace.

That's a major accomplishment for the UHI capitol of the western world.

Was anyone able to record anything beyond a trace today?

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

TUTTs?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_upper_tropospheric_trough

I stumbled on to this site back in 2012 when I was trying to understand that awful pac puke parade of a winter.  I remember a moment of enlightment when the patter "changed" but to another sucky pattern.  Can't remember what the change was but if I had to guess it probably took a brief break from Pack Puke to a NPAC ridge.  At the time I think I just thought there was a "good" pattern and a "bad".  But someone on the board pointed out that the pattern definitely changed, but it just transitioned to another sucky pattern.  That lead me to realize that there are multiple different types and degrees of patterns, and only a small subset of them are good for our regions.    

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Colin has been reincarnated as Osfan...remember when jebman threatened Randy...that was fun.

Threatened?  Like seriously?

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Marcus, Ian, myself.

"Ian" is the same person as DT?

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am really starting to like the January 20th on period.

I just saw Webb mentioning that it appears that another high was targeting central Asia which would in turn lead to another EAMT+ event which would then lead to another jet extension.  Have you seen anything about that?  That turned my blood cold.  The continental thermals are just starting to try and heal from the mauling of that last pac puke.

I was amazed to see that I have been lurking around here since 2012.  I see that most of the "old guard" joined around November 2010 or so, but I am under the impression that there was some sort of predecessor community "Eastern" or something like that.  A lot of you guys (and gals) seem to know each other waaaaay back. 

Any raconteurs out there feel like sharing the history of this group of like-minded, (very sick) people.

6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Thank you, Red! 

Get busy trackin' or get busy dyin'.

It's gonna hurt if this storm trends the wrong way.  People are starting to have hope again, and hope destroys.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Thanks stupid apple weather app for saying there’s a ridiculous 80% chance of snow Sunday, so I have to listen to my kids pester me all week. 

Sit them down and have THE TALK...about the NW trend.

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t know. But I know with the marginal thermal situation we need everything else to break near perfectly.  50/50 isn’t perfect rain. SW too amplified rain.  Surface track inside at all…rain. I guess you can focus on all those variables but the one simple thing that would change all this in our favor would be if the airmass was maybe 5-10 degrees colder. 

Sucks that it takes weeks to recover from the pac puke.  Hopefully the good pattern can last long enough to cash in.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

July looks really warm 

Yeah but everyone knows that August is the core of the summer snow season.

35 minutes ago, Ji said:

Shut this thread down

Until tomorrow when the storms disappear.

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS made a similar improvement in the long range.  Actually shows signs of cutting energy under the NAO through the 50/50 which is the last step to making that a good snowstorm look here. 

For balance, I dislike your positive post.