cbmclean

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Epic -nao. 

Not to mention your beloved avocado.

4 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GEFS does believe that L.P. will be developing in N.C. at 7 am on the 6th, transferring to eastern N.C. and eastern Va. at 1 p.m.

If I supply the LP, I get a 10% cut on all of the snow generated thereby.  Sort of a finders' fee.  Deal?

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Has anyone here officially declared "winter cancel" yet? Genuinely curious.

It was actually cancelled back in late November.

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Since the last super Nino in 2016 we’ve had several direct cross polar arctic shots and frankly none of them was nearly as impressive or long lived as competence shots prior to 2016.

I think the shot just after Christmas 2017 into January 2018 was very impressive.  RDU spent almost 240 straight hours below freezing.  There was ice on the edge of the sounds in the outer banks.

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Like this?? Or do you need to see it on every single OP run at the 15 day range just to appease your worried mind? Come on Ji. You’ve come so far. Reel it back in.

In the defense of all those obsessed with op run digital blue, I can remember a time or two in recent years when the Ensembles were touting a good look which either never materialized or else did so in a much degraded fashion.  One of the first indications of the upcoming disappointment was the stubborn refusal of the ops to show any consistent blues; instead showing cutter after cutter after cutter.  

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is why I'm glad I downloaded site blocker to limit my time on this site

I honestly didn't know that such a product existed.  Of course I also just found out about specialized software that notifies someone's "accountability partner" if they visit a porn site.  Maybe we can use it here and set it up to notify somebody if we look at an op past 120 hours.

So I put a certain person on ignore and I started noticing them pop up in my feed again.  I thought maybe there was a site policy where ignore expires after a certain time or something.  So I went to re-ignore and I see that he is still plainly shown as on my ignore list.  Anybody have any idea what is up?

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

That's because it's the CMC.  Lol.

Isn't the CMC the #2 model after the euro as far as verification scores?  I mean they are all useless at 240 hrs, but doesn't seem like there's any reason to discount the CMC more vs the GFS.

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

While everyone’s discussing the 300 hour GFS 

GEPS was a noice run 

The NPAC low has disappeared?  Chuck beware.

My general policy is to always assume that the warmest model is correct.  Therefore, I believe the latest long-range GFS.

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

Here’s some that might pop up:

-doesn’t look as good as a few days ago

-can see the breakdown on the 800 hour CFS

-March looks warm

-MJO is dying 

-base state warmth

All it took was the next op run.

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And quite frankly...I thought climate stuff was gradual? Could it have really just turned on a dime after 2016 and suddenly get drastically worse (as opposed to incremental changes( after one particular year?

The answer is: maybe.  Climate is hypothesized to be chaotic to a certain degree, although obviously on a different time scale than weather.  Abrupt tipping points are possible in both chaotic and non-chaotic systems but I suspect systems with significant chaotic characteristics may be more prone.

51 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’m worried about a change in the weather pattern change before we get a change in the weather pattern to change. If a weather pattern changes and no one is around to see it, did the weather pattern change?

Not if the signal degrades.

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But keep in mind Webber is from the Southeast I think which might explain his bias.

He is actually from very near my hometown of Hope Mills, NC which is in the "mid-south-eastern" portion of NC if that makes any sense.  Our snow climatology is...poor.  I believe he lives in New Mexico now.  He seems to revel in torches for the entire east coast; not sure what caused that grudge.

5 minutes ago, Stradivarious said:

A volcano just erupted in Iceland. Is there any thought how such an event might influence our weather this winter?

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413.amp

Based on those pictures it does not seem very explosive.  In order to significantly impact weather/climate the ash/SO2/water vapor has to be propelled high into the atmosphere.

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Word of caution...don't use an ens means to base temps for precip types verbatim. One or 2 mega warm members can skew that severely. 

Is there a place where you can get info on individual GEFS members easily.  Since it is an NCEP product I assume it is free somewhere, but certainly not available on Tropical Tidbits and I am too cheap to spring for WeatherBell (or maybe to timid to ask the wife's permission ).

Some people do not agree with the very concept of model-based forecasting.  The only thing one can do is note it respectfully and move on.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Webb doubling down.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1736857404233732178?t=O3FCHXnNyaWiPCw1pn9q6Q&s=19

 

So the thing is, he is not making any specific predictions per se.  Notice the wordings: "may not mean", "you may feel", "favorability/potential".  If our hoped for pattern does indeed fail, he will surely crow "I told you so".  If there is an epic snowy period, he'll just say: "I said 'may', not 'will'".

I'd have more respect if he said something specific like: I predict that the advertised pattern will occur but very little snowfall will result..."

35 minutes ago, mappy said:

i shouldn't even be in this thread lol, i offer nothing of substance. nor do i pay attention to anything beyond 3 days. yall crazy chasing patterns 10+ days out. 

You offer an ineffable je ne sais quoi which I refer to as Mappiness

ETA: And I say that as someone who contributes almost nothing myself.

8 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Ended with 4.14 yesterday.

An additional 0.45 after midnight for an event total of 4.59.

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The debs got quiet today 

They'll be back (said in Terminator voice).

Seriously though, if this good period does actually verify and is not just a smokescreen a la 2019, I suspect there will still be inevitable periods where the SIGNAL bounces around and the look degrades.  Only shit-the-blind type patterns show up and hour 384 and march unmodified down to hour 0.

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Even Webb?

He'll be posting flame emojis until the east coast does in fact get cold/snow.

Ended with 4.14 yesterday.

2.38 and counting.

Long range GEPs looks odd at the end.  The NPac low seems to have moved over to the Bering Strait. completely making me think about Chuck's post yesterday about it disappearing.