cbmclean

1" of snow/sleet in Wilson.  Sleet is killing me.  Anyone have any idea of timing of the transition line going SE?

Does anyone know a free site where you can see the CC for KRAH radar?

The sleet is driving me mad!!!!!!!!!!  Apparently a lot of people have been farting in Wilson warming the mid levels

Mostly sleet atm.  Need the line to collapse SE again.

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

Good thing it's not very heavy drizzle 

Or even a light downpour.

Simply beautiful snow in Wilson.  26.2 °F at my PWS.  I'm at work trying to restrain the urge to look out the window every 5 seconds.

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

RAP

*Insert Homer Simpson doughnut face*

Flurries in Wilson.

Light snow in Wilson.  I wasn't expecting it to start until after lunch.

4 minutes ago, rxwxunc said:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/22/2/waf986_1.pdf
 

This article from AMS explains convection robbing or enhancing upstream QPF well. We need a low level jet to orient convection north to south to push more moisture north. If the convection moves too fast west to east then there is very little northward moisture transport like the current NAM is showing.  

Nice article!

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Expects skeet line to stay south of wake county 

Good I don't want to be dodging birdshot.

The 12K NAM sucks, I mean it stinks as a model.  But it does one thing exceptionally well: it sniffs out a warm nose like a freaking terminator.  Based on this and based on the long-joked-about-but-still accurate-maxim, "trust the least snowy model" combined with the maxim that the warm-nose always overperforms: I "officially" predict that the 12K NAM will "win" and RDU south will have little or no snow.  I hope I bust horribly and I get a snowball to the face tomorrow.

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah I think up here they should of held off on giving us the warning but they know more than me. Would love to know what their seeing. 

I suspect they are expecting a last minute NW trend.  Which does often happen.

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Bet against NAM thermals at your own peril 

Exactly, that's why Im hugging the 3K NAM!!

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Darn it.

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

the 12Z 3K NAM has a LOT of moisture for central NC.  Much longer duration event.

Yeah but how bad are the thermals?

It appears we are stuck on a knife's edge between cold enough for mostly snow but too dry vs juicier but too warm aloft for snow.

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Both the NAM and FV3 turn Raleigh proper over to ZR for the majority of the event. It’s still a major possibility. Plain rain is off the table though and we will have some sleet for sure. I’m not sold on us seeing any snow until the NAM shows it at 12z tomorrow. I’ve been burnt by NAM thermals for years I’m not letting it get me this time. It is very good at assessing thermals in a miller-A. Like the best. Seeing it mix into Virginia worries me, even at range 

Having flashbacks to January 2017.

2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I agree.  I'm hoping that whatever the 3km NAM is cooking up comes to fruition.  It has alot more moisture back in the western half of NC and seems to be a fair amount slower.  I could see it putting out 0.50"+ in the Triad.

TW

Better regional performance at short lead times is literally the NAM's entire purpose for existing, so if it can't beat the globals in that regard, time to put it out to pasture.

2 minutes ago, Orange county said:

WRAL at lunch says Raleigh will be ice

How in the world?  I thought central NC's biggest problem is the cold press crushing the moisture?

19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Great run from the Canadian. Feels like that jackpot zone is coming back NW.

On behalf of Wilson, I give this run my stamp of approval.

SE weenies have to get up with the sun to tend the soybean seedlings.

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

All the models look pretty similar now if you count GEFS coming in line

Except the NAM...

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I mean. Realistically, how far south and east can it go? 

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Pretty far. There’s nothing in the upper levels preventing this from going OTS completely 

I was just going to say the same thing; this could trend to a FROPA.  For my sake, hopefully not.

29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wind underperformed big time here. Not sure we gusted over 40 and it hasn’t even been that breezy since 

Nothing to serious in Wilson; max of 26.2 mph on my PWS.  Just got breezier again though.