cbmclean

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Irony is the tactic I used to identify that storm doesn’t work as often anymore. Back then I was simply hunting for a major h5 amplification to our south. I used a “rule” that in a split flow blocking regime you typically see a system exit with about the same amplitude and latitude as it entered the CONUS. So I identified that we likely would get a fairly amplified h5 low to track just under us and went hard for snow regardless of marginal temps. That method doesn’t work now. The last few I identified that way ended up just being perfect track (h5 anyways) rainstorms. 

 kneel before King Babar.

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wtf 

 

 i don't know what he knows that you know about Chuck.

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

In a colder base state the nao was king. But a +pdo -nao could be cold/dry. So a lot of our snowiest years were -pdo -nao. A -pdo +nao was always a bad bad bad pattern though. 
 

Problem now imo, we’ve warmed too much for a -pdo -nao to work the same as it used too. The pac storms are coming in too amplified and dig the western trough more. The warmer gulf and atl pump the SER more. The SER links with the nao. Everything gets shifted north.  It seems now the epo/pna have become more important. We’ve lost a -pdo -nao as a big snow producer combination. 

I see.  So by the same token, in today's warmer, wetter base state a +PDO/-NAO may be less dry and therefore better.  

OK, how much would it cost me to have you flip the PDO?  Do you take Venmo?

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Temps don't support those ratios. Here's what the GFS shows

I have learned my lesson.  If, Chuck isn't onboard, it isn't real.

22 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Agree. Glimmer of hope is that we may not have to wait that long for the -pdo to end. CC may be causing more variability and quicker flips between + and -

Plus according to this graph, we’ve been in a neg pdo since following the 1998 super nino.

Hard to tell and data before 1930 or so is likely suspect, but the cycles were prolonged in the past, and they seem to be shortening over time. 

1840-1880: neg for 40 years
1880-1910: pos for 30 years
1910-1925: brief neg for 15y
1924-1945: pos 20y
1945-1975: neg 30y
1975-1998: pos 23y
1998-now: neg 26y but with brief 2-4 year interruptions

I suspect that it won’t be long until it flips back, but the positive cycles will become shorter each cycle, same with negative. wild card is in the marine heat waves, those may change things in unforeseen ways

What bothers me about that though, note that the mythical 60s were -PDO dominant, while the 80s and 90s were +PDO.  Just from that graph what would make one think a +PDO was preferable?

22 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

It will snow again, milankovitch cycles will edge slowly in our favor by 15,000 AD. And we should be well past fossil fuels by then too. Lookin' good. 

We'll be well past fossil fuels, but the extra atmospheric CO2 will linger for several hundred thousand years and some are even theorizing that we have killed the glacial cycles altogether.  I'm too depressed to look up the references but they are there.

Of course I could easily see atmospheric carbon extraction becoming a viable technology in the next few hundred years.  Wouldn't it be funny if people started harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere to make carbon nanotubes or some such and accidentally took too much!!

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But I’m done with worrying about it. I won’t be surprised either way at this point. Was today just a one last fluke tease run on the way to a final rug pull or a real indication?  Ehh. I don’t have the patience left to dig into it really. If we get multiple days of improvements and it gets into a more believable range I’ll jump back into it.  For now we still have a legit chance for the wave I liked all along if we can get some minor adjustments. After that I’ll let the chips fall where they may. 

The thing is, even if you guys luck into something significant before the end, I think we have the "answer" you have been referring to.  The Pacific base state is dominant.  El Nino is powerless to help (to be fair, maybe it improves "shit the blinds" to simple "shut the blinds").  Kneel before King Babar.

As a churchgoer myself, not sure how I feel about Jesus having a Superbowl add.

1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees???

Actually, Heavy water freezes at about 38.9 F, so we just need to replace all normal hydrogen with deuterium.

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Getting punchy up in here.  HECS can't come soon enough

Might be time to break out the Downfall video: Das snow ist befell!!

2 hours ago, Kay said:

Of course! I post. And fit so many other criteria.

But the important thing is that we blame each other. So you can, and probably should, blame me. But no one should blame themselves! The rage must be directed outward.

I blame Canada.

4 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

My youngest is two and has a weather pop-up book he likes. He keeps opening and closing the snowflake picture over and over, saying "See snowflake! See snowflake!"

This disease starts at a young age. LOL

Need to get him treatment immediately.  Do you want him chasing snow in the base state of the 2040s?

The LR thread:

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I’m not trying to argue why it’s not colder. I’m just making the observation that compared to past periods with a similar pattern the temps being shown aren’t as cold as I expected. 

Does that include the derating you already factor in for a 2024 base state?    

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Or something else also 

If you mean Babar,  I am assuming the record low NA snow extent is correlated to him, but felt no need to go there.

2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Did you see the cmc? Is snowing in Mexico “Deep South” enough? You’ve been harping on how terrible the gfs is doing with the the long range pattern progression yet using it to make a point about no cold air in the long range. All the while other guidance is a good bit colder. Let it play.


.

Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be.  Perhaps  correlated to low continental snow extent?

Am I the only one that notices that PSU and Maestro have the exact same conversation about randomness every year.  

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

love this look

Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it?  I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along.  I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it?

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't know what all this GFS hate is. If you know what its biases are, it's easy to work with as a 1-model system. 

The mockery is due to its low verification scores.  NWP is too complex to always just be able to "adjust for biases".  Sometimes you can, like when you just mentally add 5 °F onto whatever the Canadian shows for 2m temps.  Other times it's not that simple.

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

On balance, it is a TON more fun to have one of the majors doing this five days from an event even if it is on an island - just fun to dream a bit - especially given that this is still the period before THE PERIOD OF INTEREST. 

Is there a form we should fill out to have the GFS stripped of its Major model status?  In my book if the ICON is beating you it's time to reasses.

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve been absent in here because the GFs has been so awful that frankly until something else joins this club I just cant get excited. That said the other guidance has kinda been trending towards it. Maybe once in a while the gfs can stumble onto the right idea.  

I could easily see Mt. PSU getting a inches if it breaks right.  Something that is hopefully a footnote to the 60"+ you rake in over the next month .

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not sure how far south Dec. 2018 got but that sounds close

I live in Wilson NC right along I-95, (hang out here because the analysis is top notch).  December 2018 just petered out in my area.  i got 3 - 4 sloppy inches that then mostly got washed away when it changed to rain.  Just a bit west it was better.

2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Thanks...yeah, Zwyts sounds correct and familiar from that time.  I thought he changed his name to @Deck Pic though...not sure.  At any rate, I definitely recall his comments about the March 2015 event.

Can't trust people who change their name...

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs has temp issues because it doesn’t retrograde the Scandinavian block into the nao as much and instead keep rotating NS systems to our north.  If that’s correct we would have issues but I’m not taking a model that’s running in last place in verification scores. You know how we joke about the icon. I saw a chart a couple months ago where the gfs was running below the icon!  

So in general are you optimistic on the period 2/19?

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Go big or bust....nice to have something to even consider for next week before the reload period.

Wait, "reload period"?  The pattern flip will just have completed by this time next week or a little later.