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cbmclean

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Posts posted by cbmclean

  1. 1 hour ago, CAPE said:

    The Pacific has been largely favorable the past month though, with a mechanism for delivery of legit cold into our source region. Not really comparable to the 'pacific puke'  problem we had much of last winter, where the AO/NAO was favorable for extended periods but did little good because there was no cold to work with.

    For me, that is one of the big positives from this year.  Assuming the pattern does break down after Valentines that would be a solid 5 - 6 weeks of "workable to good" Pacific, which feels like it might be more than the "workable to good" time than the previous five winters put together.  

    On the negative side, it seems like the "trend" of the complete inability to have the Atlantic and Pacific to play nicely together for any extended time is continuing.  I'm not talking about having both sides be really good at the same time; that's rarer than finding a unicorn with a four leaf clover growing out of its butt.  I'm just talking about one side being good while the other is at least workable.  The present day default state is that if one side is good the other side is a raging dumpster fire and if the raging dumpster fire by chance goes out, it immediately pops up on the other side.

    • Haha 2
  2. 26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    We actually had a -AO/-NAO for a good part of last winter, if I'm not mistaken. Just not enough cold air (and the tpv splitting into an unfortunate position).

    You are not mistaken.  We also had -NAO for a good part of this past December.  Unfortunately in both cases it was largely rendered moot by Pac Puke.  

  3. 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Maybe after saying the pattern was going to break down for the last month they are finally going to be right.  I am not saying they wont be.  I don't know.  The pattern does have to break eventually.  BUT...why do the same people that say it means nothing and deb when the super long range guidance says cold is coming...suddenly believe it totally when those same models say warm is coming???

    I don't discount long range cold totally, but I do tend to put more credence in long range warm.  I think this is rational as it us my understanding that the models have a known cold bias in the medium to long range, so if they are showing a warm signal, then I think it is more likely that there is a strong feature which is overcoming their bias.

  4. 12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    The average is 6 inches period.

    The average is somewhere between 5.1 and 5.2 inches, depending on whether or not you include years that just have a trace.

    12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    If we get no more snow this winter it will be 3 years in a row below the average.

    That's true but that isn't really that extraordinary.  Looking at the period 1990- 2020, we had 

    • Five years in a row below average (1990-1991 through 1994-1995)
    • Four years in a row below average (2004-2005 through 2007 - 2008)
    • Three years in a row below average (1996-1997 through 1998 - 1999)
    • Of the 1990's 8 out of 10 years were below average
  5. 17 hours ago, Avdave said:

    Your infatuation with New England getting screwed is really bizarre. Not sure why all the hate for a region because they are in a much colder climo and in a good location for snows.  

    Some people seem to get as much or maybe more more joy from others failing to get snow than from their own successes.  It is actually quote a common attitude I have found, although I don't understand it myself.

    • Like 2
  6. 17 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    4 in a row?

    I found the numbers and crunched them.  The RDU 30 mean for snow is 5.13 inches.  The median is only 2.5 inches.  So we are already above the median.  

    60% of years (18 of 30) during this period were below the mean.  And if we didn't get any more snow it would only be the third consecutive year below the mean.  2018 - 2019 was well above the mean: 8.9 "

     

    image.thumb.png.92f5f6836985df59adcda4fccb4e4874.png

    • Thanks 1
  7. 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

    No doubt Brady is the GOAT. But the cool thing is we got to watch the future of the NFL in that Bills/Chiefs game last weekend. Best football game I have ever watched in my life. And that is saying something when you are as old as me. 

    I personally find the shotgun/spread revolution less aesthetically pleasing than say the 1990's with fullbacks.  The game has swung too much to the offense for my personal taste.  Please note that I am just talking about my personal preference.  I hate it when people try to argue that their personal likes are objectively superior and their personal dislikes are objectively inferior.

  8. 4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

    Do you know what the normal was for the previous 30 year period?

    I will look in a minute, but first I have obtained the yearly snowfall amounts from 1991 - 2020.  The median snowfall is......2.5 inches, less than half the mean!  So RDU has already exceed its real "normal" snowfall for the year.  Congratulations for us all. (note, I treat "T" as zeros in my calculations

    Here is the yearly data

    1990-1991 0
    1991-1992 0
    1992-1993 2.5
    1993-1994 4.4
    1994-1995 2.2
    1995-1996 14.6
    1996-1997 0.4
    1997-1998 2.4
    1998-1999 0
    1999-2000 25.8
    2000-2001 2.6
    2001-2002 10.8
    2002-2003 7.4
    2003-2004 14.9
    2004-2005 0.9
    2005-2006 0
    2006-2007 1.6
    2007-2008 0.5
    2008-2009 7.1
    2009-2010 8
    2010-2011 9
    2011-2012 0.9
    2012-2013 1.7
    2013-2014 5.8
    2014-2015 7.9
    2015-2016 1.4
    2016-2017 0.8
    2017-2018 8.9
    2018-2019 8.9
    2019-2020 2.5

     

    • Thanks 1
  9. 3 hours ago, eyewall said:

    It would take another 3 incher to get us to normal.

    What do you define as normal?  For the 1991 - 2020 period, RDU "normal" (mean) is 5.2 inches: 2.6 in Jan, 1.4 in Feb, 0.3 in March, 0.1 in Nov, and 0.8 in December.  I haven't been able to find the yearly numbers to calculate a median but I am certain it is significantly less than the mean.  

  10. 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    We've wasted a few great ones since but that was the last classic hit. Last year had some great blocking. Upper air looked great plenty but when you opened up the 850 temp panels... ooof.... what a disaster. Lol

    Last year was very frustrating in that regard.  It started in November, which was a ++++++AO nightmare which torched our source regions.  That broke down but was instantly replaced with weeks-long Pac puke in December.  By January even with great blocking there was no cold to be had in the entire hemisphere.  By mid February that finally changed, but by then our blocking went "poof" and the cold dumped into the southern plains leading to historic events there.  C'est la vie.

  11. Just now, cbmclean said:

    Because good results are much more probable in good patterns and bad results are much more probable in bad patterns.

    To clarify, it might be better to say "good results are much less improbable in good patterns".  Good results are still unlikely at our latitudes.  Obviously in my neck of the woods that is even more true.

  12. 5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    4 in a row?

    Any one have the 1999-2020 raw data easily accessible for RDU?  I am curious to compare the mean vs the median.  I am guessing that at least 2 out of 3 years are below the 30 year mean.

    • Haha 1
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