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cbmclean

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Posts posted by cbmclean

    January Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, nj2va said:

    Yes, GGEM is the Canadian also known as CMC.

    RGEM is the high res GGEM and the HRDPRS is the higher res Canadian (sort of like GFS/12KNAM/3KNAM)

    Thanks.  So is the RGEM confined to a smaller area like the NAM is confined to North America?

    January Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    You know that scene in the original Matrix where Agent Smith was telling Morpheus that the first Matrix was an attempt by the machines to create a perfect human world, but human brains couldn't accept perfection and the brains kept crashing?  That is how I feel about how good the long-range has been looking lately.  It is too good to be real.  I keep thinking I am going to black out and wake naked in a vat of goo high up an energy harvesting tower.

    January 12th-13th event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Just now, NCSNOW said:

    Lol, hell score most no doubt. But we are dealing with a sfc low track right under us, almost on top , not to mention transfering, miller b. So it will screw up thermals unless we can get a budge south.

    Well, I am east of RDU, so I expect the good old fashioned cold rain.  Strength of that high pressure might be just enough for some hijinx up your way.

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    She has a very obvious agenda.  I doubt it's going to change her spin at all.   As of right now...she has been right about the winter...it has been warm.  If we flip cold and snowy she will bust, if we don't she was right (about that) but she has been misrepresenting the enso data in a way to support her warm forecast and to very nastily blast everyone who had a cold forecast and to imply they are hyping and attention seeking.  I took some offense to that since I am in the "cold/snowy" contingent but I can ensure you I went with that outlook because I honestly believed based on the analogs I think are most pertinent that it will be cold and snowy from mid January on.  If I am wrong I am wrong, but to imply I am just saying that because I want it to be snowy or because I want some kind of attention is presumptuous and unnecessary. 

    She could promote her own forecast without personally attacking everyone who disagrees with her.  I feel like I have been very adamant about defending my own belief that things would turn colder, but without once attacking or implying a dishonest motive or doubting the integrity of those that disagree with me.  

    Who is "Becky"?

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

    I don't know about that. Apparently it is not doing so well. It nailed the December storm, but overall is worse than the old GFS from reading the Mid Atlantic board.

    Their opinions are mixed.  I don't think I have seen anyone say it was actually worse.  Some have shown pointed to correlation plots showing little to no improvement.  There is at least one poster (psuhoffman) who really seems to know what he is talking about, who believes that it has shown notable improvement in some aspects, but astill lags the euro.

    • Like 1

    January Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    But I suspect a rested at home saints team is pretty close to a brick wall next week but I suspect Foles and the defense will put up more of a fight this time.

    Rest is good, but I have seen so many times where teams that had the bye came out flat, or at least flat enough to fall to a team which came in to the playoffs hot.  That red-hot Eagles are exactly the kind of match-up which I would look to knock off the Saints.

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

    About 28".

    From official RDU records, 28.1 inches for 2000 calendar year: 25.8 in January, 2.2 in November, and 0.1 in December.

    If you meant for the 1999 - 2000 winter, it was just 25.8, since there was nothing in December 1999 or February 2000.

    Interestingly, 1999 was a complete shut-out: 0.0 inches.

    January Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

    It was like the 6 or 7th missed fg via  hitting the upright this year.  He had 4 in one game.  NBC rolled a tape showing each.  Bizarre.

    I blame it on the Pacific jet.

    • Haha 1

    January Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    Family and life has to do with it but some of why I don't watch much unless the eagles are involved anymore is that.  I love defense. All my favorite games from my childhood were defensive games. House of pain game. Body bag game.  Maybe it's because I grew up watching great defense and mediocre offenses.  Eagles used to win games 10-6 back then. I remember a big game they won to make the playoffs 6-0. Lol. 

    I know the game changed but come on. My favorite play of the year was that hit the bears put on the Vikings receiver last week. Blew him up. I was out of my seat. And it wasn't even my team. Feels like the NFL want to take that away. If I wanted to watch a 45-40 game I would watch arena football. 

    My opinion: There are two reasons 

    1. I suspect that casual fans are a big part of the 15 -20 year boom in NFL ratings, and I suspect that casual fans like basketball on turf.

    2. Legal liability: the NFL knows they are sitting on a poderkeg of liability for concussions.  Basketball on turf is probably safer.

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

    Y’all go ahead and reel this one in. It’s a stepdown process. Where’s Chuck with that 84hr NAM? Still showing some blocking?

    It's all part of my master plan to build up the MA snow pack so that cold air masses just skate down from the north with no moderation.:sled:

     

    • Like 3

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

    The good news is that it may be rain anyway so people won’t have to see them get snow down there again.  The air mass is putrid down in the gulf coast region on many of the ensemble members despite the fact that’s a perfect track for snow in BHM ATL GSP on many of the members it’s more likely than not to be rain  

    :thumbsdown:

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    They are mostly separate. Heights are based on pressure in the column and thickness is based on temperature (and density) in the column. The 540 line is generally found where the surface is at freezing. Not exact but close. Its not correlated with the 540 height isobar.

    It's better practice tonuse soundings or look at temps at various levels instead of using thickness.

    But I just don't understand.

    From the definitions (simplified, as I as I understand them)

    500 hPa geopotential height  =  the height at which the atmospheric pressure is 500 hPa

    1000 to 500 hPa thickness =  the height difference between the 1000 hPa level and the 500 hPa level

    Since sea level pressure is about 1000 hPa, I would think that the height at which atmospheric pressure is 500 hPa should be about the same as the height between the 1000 hPa level and the 500 hPa level.

    For example the pressure at RDU is about 1015 hPa.  Let's say my 1000 hPa height is 11 dm, and my 500 hPa height is say 560 dm.  So my 1000 - 500 thickness is 560-11 or 549 dm.  So yeah, the 1000 - 500 thickness is a little less than the 500 hPa height, because 100 hPa is a little up in the air from the surface.  But why don't 1000 - 500 thickness basically follow 500 hPa heights, just with a little negative offset?

     

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Icon is basically a perfect h5 evolution... This would be a warning level event

    icon_z500_vort_us_61.png

    I need some weenie education.

    So in the figure above I see the 540 dm geopotential height line almost completely in Canada.  I know that the 540 dm 1000 - 500 thickness line is generally considered the "baseline" rain snow line.

    So I do not understand why the geopotential height is ever very different from the 1000 - 500 thickness.  Isn't 1000 hPa basically the surface?  So wouldn't the thickness between 1000 hPa and 500 hPA be about the same as the height of the 500 hPa geopotential surface?  I am obviously missing something but I am not sure what. 

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