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cbmclean

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Posts posted by cbmclean

  1. 49 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

    I swear, if we get entrenched into a nice cold pattern and the STJ dries up...man I'll be so distraught.  I'll give up at that point.  :arrowhead:

    According to MA big dogs the STJ isn't drying up, but just getting squashed way down by the TPV.  Same effect while it is happening , but easier to recover from I would think.

    • Like 2
  2. 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    After last year, I'm tired of cold and dry. Last year was some of the most wasted cold!

    Well we got some snow to go along with it.  Not too much, but enough to drive me down to 0 F one night, which is quite an accomplishment for eastern NC.

    There has been some mention on the SE board of 1994, which was notable for us for some bitter cold outbreaks interspersed with "warm up and rain" storms.

     

  3. 12 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

    I'll take my chances down here in NC.  Storms seldom run across the gulf coast and ots.  We get some overrunning even up this way if only a semblance of amplification

    I would prefer for everybody to get some snow Push come to shove, I love cold, so I could survive cold and dry.

  4. 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    the Op gfs is being stubborn with the blocking. Ever since this run 18z yesterday

    F17C2DFC-9476-4755-9060-5678C9B63A6B.thumb.png.9cf291ed19bc8ca3a5b011e150e69b39.png

    it’s gone to this...

    01C8314E-ADA5-44D6-84DE-0261A158F0B6.thumb.png.1b1068158d26b95626e847c7a5aa75b0.png

    This is a major learning moment for me.  If you feel like it, could you explain how to analyze the sensible weather impacts from the GFS version, especially with regards to temperature anomalies.?

    My current understanding is on a very simplistic level.  I see a big trough in the east and ridge in the west and think "good, must be cold".  Obviously I have a lot to learn.

     

    • Thanks 1
  5. 17 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

    Yep. I'm in that crew. That is worse than being in an endless torch pattern. I'll be spending a lot of time in the sanitarium I'm sure.

    I'm a little better off for this pattern, since I am one of those who can enjoy plain cold.  Of course I would rather my cold come with snow.

    • Like 2
  6. 1 hour ago, msuwx said:

    The storm system this weekend opens the door for the new pattern. System this weekend and the 24th-ish are longer shots as the pattern change takes place. But after that....

    The ensembles look about as good as possible. And it’s not getting further away. It’s getting closer, right on schedule. There’s no punting. 

    Hopefully.  Next 10 days will be frustrating for the "give me snow or give me 60s" crew.  Gonna warm up and rain, then get cold.  Then warm up and rain, then get cold.  

  7. 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    @Ji you have had 2 warning events and it’s not even the half way point of our snow climo yet in a winter where the second half is supposed to be the better half. Oh and you were having this mini melt down with 10” of snow in your yard. Maybe you need to reboot whatever part of your brain is responsible for PERSPECTIVE!!!

    When was his first warning event? I thought you guys had been shutout since November.

  8. 53 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

    I think you know how it will work!? Rain, cold front, bitter cold for two days, warm up, rain repeat!

    Right now there is no HL blocking so warm/wet and cold/dry is the favored outcome.  It is still possible (in NC at least) to get them to both match up, as we saw in 2013-14 and 2014-15 where we had no Atlantic support but were kept from torching by the EPO, and eventually a lot of us moderately scored.  But that is a low probability occurance.

    For sure, if we want serious chances of scoring a significant snowfall, we are going to need the Atlantic to cooperate.  There are encouraging signs that it might start to do just that the last week of January and into February, but we all know how that can go.

    I like cold for its own sake so for the present, I am going to sit back, enjoy the cold shots, and hope the long-range guidance comes to fruition.

    • Like 1
  9. 12 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

    Anyone been paying attention to the radar for Washington DC?

    it started snowing yesterday and it’s still snowing. I’m happy for them but a I’m ready to see that for us in the SE too. 

    They really needed it.  I have been hanging around in their forum a lot lately since ours kind of fell asleep in the afterglow of the early December storm and the subsequent boring pattern.  It was getting ugly in there.  Still great analysis, though.

  10. 10 minutes ago, msuwx said:

    Relax. No guarantees, but the coming pattern (late January-February) looks about as good as it can look at this range. I feel the system next weekend is what opens the door for the pattern. 

    I would call it an epic pattern, but we have to remember, in the non-mountain SE, "epic" means 30% chance of significant winter weather, as opposed to the usual 1%.

  11. 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Your area needs suppressed blocked flow. This panel is nearly perfect for NC snow and it's just getting started. The most impressive part is every past piece of long range guidance looks like this. You guys are getting snow. It's not an if but a when. Bad luck and chaos are the only negatives.

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

     

  12. 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Your area needs suppressed blocked flow. This panel is nearly perfect for NC snow and it's just getting started. The most impressive part is every past piece of long range guidance looks like this. You guys are getting snow. It's not an if but a when. Bad luck and chaos are the only negatives.

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

    Thanks.  I woul dlike to share your post in my home forum.  I have seen others do this but am not sure how.  Do you know?

  13. 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

    The good blocking isn't progged to develop for another 2 weeks. Enough cold around to keep things interesting but with unblocked progressive flow it's wise to not expect any clean snowstorms until later in the month. The stronger the storm the higher the odds for mixed or rain

    I'll take that over a torch any day.

  14. 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Yea, it's not a good h5 pattern for a snowstorm along the coast. Especially in the mid atlantic. Need the tpv to be a perfectly positioned mobile "block" to work this far south. Within the realm but very unlikely. 

    Maybe this is just the step down that you you have mentioned many times, perhaps just a little colder and more entertaining than you had envisioned it?

  15. 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

    So much for those monster runs for a winter storm next weekend... that faded away fast... theirs a storm but to warm.

    Ops runs at range.  You know how that goes.  That being said, things aren't looking good for snow in the SE next weekend.  There's a good chance for some serious cold, and there will be moisture, just not the right kind of blocking to get them to be in the same time at the same place.

    On the bright side, there is serious support for significant high latitude blocking the last week of January and into February.  It would be nice if it was happening now though. 

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