cbmclean

3 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

The thing is, it pays for TV mets to be conservative. In our area things will be conservative say 90% of the time. So if you call low 100% of the time, you'll be right 90% of the time. The other 10% of the time you'll be forgiven. If you call high one time when it's not there, people will always remember that. Fishel gets to hang his hat on the 2000 storm where he was basically the only one to get it right, but late in his career (arguably) it's easy to just take the conservative road and be right most of the time. That's not really a criticism per se, it's just a way to maintain a steady state.

To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion).  I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I just don't. Why do you think it will be?

He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident".  Someone re-posted it yesterday.  If I knew how, I would re-post it again.  It should be required reading before one can post on here.

Just now, WidreMann said:

The NAM can do many things. Use your imagination.

Most of them bad, apparently.

So what does "getting NAMed" mean?  I had thought it was when the NAM showed a rediculously overdone QPF at range.  But I saw a post in the main storm thread which seemed to imply it meant when the NAM was first to sniff out a warm nose and rained on your snow parade.

Which is it?

2 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The storm is still 3-4 days out, so there’s plenty of time for this one to head south in a big way.  It’s not like we haven’t seen that song and dance before...  Not that I expect that to happen here, but there’s always that chance.

By the way, I like your little header "1899 Repeat, Please".

I learned about the great 1899 cold outbreak in my well-loved copy of Christopher C. Burt's "Extreme Weather".  -2 F in Tallehassee!

Here is a link to a journal article about it.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003<0305%3ATGAOAE>2.0.CO%3B2

You know, I still can't shake the feeling that SOMETHING unforeseen is going to go wrong with this storm.  An under-modeled warm nose, anomalous dry banding,  aliens from space using their death rays to zap the snow before it hits the ground.

And when it happens, this board is going to be near catatonic.

On 12/3/2018 at 12:51 AM, 64Storm said:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
0434 PM EST SUN DEC 02 2018

 

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ATLANTA...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES WAS REACHED AT ATLANTA
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 74 SET IN 1998.

 

That surprises me.  I would have expected the record high for Alanta to be in the upper seventies this early in December.

10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I know, but one of its ensembles has a 1041 parked over West Virginia

Can someone remind me what the RGEM is again.  Asking for a friend

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

RGEM is wayyyyyy our of its range and I would caution you that it is always one of the colder models, sometimes overdoes the cold.

Why do they bother wasting what I would assume are scarce computational resources in running a model so far outside of its effective domain?

I am rooting for my peeps in the W Piedmont and Mtns.  But since I am dependent on others for model analysis, part of me is ready for this event to come and go so the forum can get back to the post-storm long range.

On 12/4/2018 at 9:26 AM, kvegas-wx said:

So if we on the east coast rely on systems to come on shore before they can be sampled, and then we have 2-3 days to fine tune the forecast, do the people on the west coast think they are waking up to sunny and 75 and suddenly its raining??  Seriously, how does it work on the west coast for forecasting if upper air features can't be sampled until they are on shore?  Seems almost paradoxical.

That's an interesting point, and one I have never considered.  One thing that seems to be the case is that, the weather there seems to be less variable, at least if we are talking about sea level.  The temperatures ranges are much less and precipitation is more predictable (they have distinct wet and dry seasons).  I remember at work there was a guy who moved from Orange County CA and it really struck him how random our summer afternoon thundershowers are.  It was weird for him to be bone dry in his location and five miles down the road be getting a downpour.  Where he was from, everyone got rain or no one got rain.

San Diego is of course famous for being 75 - 85 the whole year.

Where it might make more difference is in the rockies and the western great plains.  cold and warm air masses are constantly battling with dramatic results, and they have less time to assimilate the land sampling than we do.

1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

The one good thing is this thing cant really bust for me.....I would be sweating bullets if I was in the spots showing 12-24" every run.....we had a similar storm forecast down here a few years back, run after run of the Euro and GFS giving us 12-20" in central and eastern NC on the clown maps.....ended up with 3" of sleet......better to expect rain or a slushy 1-2" and get a foot than think your getting the big dog and ending up with tons of sleet.

Seriously though if the cold can trend stronger the track should trend flatter and then snow totals would climb in central and eastern NC.....seeing some signs of that on the NAMS etc but still several days to go to hash it out. 

Good to see you posting Downeastnc. 

I'm trying to stay aloof of this storm, I just don't see much in the cards for us.  Maybe some wet flakes if we are lucky.

14 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

With this looking like a CAD event with no real other source of cold air, east of US-1 looks like a cold rain..  All the models seem to be trending toward that sharp US-1 cut off.

We're used to it.

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

GEFS is def further south and east of the OP. On my phone and at work so don’t have pictures but at its closest approach it goes from Jacksonville FL to southeast of Myrtle and then east from there.

Hey Buddy, are you model watching while you should be working?

5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s not on shore yet! 

That may have been in jest, but i think it's a good point in reality.  Since the major storm seems to depend on the perfect timing of the NS and SS features, once more data is assimilated it may go poof. 

Looks like ENC is going to get an epic dose of...cold rain.

A very encouraging post from psuhoffman over on the MA thread (he seems like the real deal, so I put a lot of stock in what he says)

Note of course that his thoughts on snow are really only applicable when it comes to the MA, but the thoughts on overall patters should be applicable for us as well.

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't believe them because the weeklies show what they show. I believe them because they show what we logically expected the pattern to evolve into given nino climo and all the signs so far this season. I definitely don't regret keeping my bullish snowfall forecast unedited. 

I don't know what more to wait for. The mjo keeps cycling cold then dying without any grand tours of the warm phases. The enso looks pretty close to the composite of all our big years. The PV is a weak pathetic pos this year that's getting beat around like a piñata. Everytime we get a trough in the east its storms galore. We're running cold and every attempt to flip quickly reverts. The nao looks ok and tends to only trend better later in nino years. 

 Im all in. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Won't be the first or last time but I've seen enough. I expect this to be a big year and will be disappointed (and very wrong) if it's not. 

34 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That would be great but I would be good with just the cold. A warm Christmas sucks.. 

Ah, the fond memories of Christmas 2015 when I had to swat the gnats and mosquitoes away.

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Still a long way to go

Hopefully we all cash in

Oh, it's academic for me.  I'm not getting anything anyway.  It's just that they were really hyped yesterday but were bummed after that last model run.  It;s a roller coaster ride for sure.

The MA forum is frowny-faced right now.

2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

RAH is being too bold.

That surprises me, the Raleigh area has been burnt so many times.  Not that he has anything to do with the RAH forecast, but I think Greg Fishel lost 3 years of life just from the Jan 2016 debacle alone.

18 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

It was definitely last year some time. I remember it well. It was one of the only times after the December storm that things looked interesting IMBY cause everything kept suppressing to the coast and leaving us dry here in far NE GA. But that suppressed all the way to Cuba in the end lol.

It was last year right after Christmas in the Dec 29ish time frame where there was a large storm modeled which went poof due to being suppressed.

In retrospect, I am glad that it did, because that suppression was the herald of an arctic outbreak the likes of which I had never seen before, including frozen-over lakes in Wilson, NC.  In my opinion, that is more enjoyable than any individual storm.  And much of NC still got to cash in on some snow later anyway.

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Good ! They never get snow! Hug the GFS, lol

Well, in their defense, the past two winters have had them almost driven insane from lack of snow.  I wish there was a way that we could both store instead of them trying to pull it north and us trying to pull it south.

This one is academic for me, since eastern NC was never in the game.  Maybe next time.

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Please don't make me add an F

I have to admit that I have been wondering what was the story between you guys.

Well, it will be an interesting week of model watching here in E NC.  I can't wait to find out if we are going to get cold rain, cool rain, or warm rain.