cbmclean

37 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Well of course you do. But this is the mid-Atlantic forum, so all the discussions here will cater to what is best for this region. 

I was being silly.  I hang out here because the analysis is better, but I know I am just a visitor (a friendly one though).

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You had your snow already. It's time for you to experience 40 degree rain for a while. I dated a girl in NC years ago. Anything under 50 is "deep winter" to them anyways. 

Kidding aside your as far south of me as Boston is north of me. What we need isn't even remotely the same. It would be very difficult for me to get much from a big snowstorm for you and I doubt any of my top 10 storms were very good for you. 

Well I would say that the large scale pattern that we want is the similar for both you and I: ridge in the west, trough in the east, cold high up north, NA blocking etc..  Obviously I need more suppression.  

I want everybody to get their fix this 2nd half of winter.  Give me one more suppressed storm and you guys can have the rest.

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's a good look for the Carolinas. 

So yes we do want to see a big purple ball over the MA.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My name is Inigo Montoya

 

You killed my winter, now prepare to die.

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The Head Honcho. The Big Guy. He runs these boards.

The Mozart-looking guy who tells AFUBN to shut-up all the time?  I have been wondering what the story is there.

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What would Randy tell you?

Who is randy?

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

It looks like the composite of all our epic snow periods. Not kidding. But we need it to be reality and not a ghost. 

January looks meh but considering what the front 15 looks like it likely that the back 10 look pretty good. 

I know some will never be totally happy with this year because of the bad start and that's fine. They have every right. But I will be thrilled and 100% satisfied if we get an epic period and i beat climo the second half. 

Actually if I'm going to get a little over climo snow I'd rather it come in one epic month then spread out over the whole winter. I love extreme events. 

To each their own. 

To celebrate the pattern change, PSU has changed his font.

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

PS don't let u know who see those.  That epo nao combo might shatter their reality. 

It took me like ten readings to parse this.  I thought the "PS don't let u" was you referring to yourself in the third person.

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, i mean you seem like a good person and all and you're welcome here any time but when push comes to shove... i'm rooting for heavy cold rain in your yard. Nothing personal so dont take it the wrong way

I don't take it personally at all.  We all root for our own snow.  I am not greedy though.  Give me 6 inches and some cool-to-cold temps and I am a happy boy for the winter.  You guys can have the big ones.  If we got 20" we would resort to cannibalism on day 2.

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think we have all seen what happens when we get extreme cold into our area. ( congrats North Carolina.) 

Is there a problem with that?

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why would my thoughts have changed any, I expected a shift to a better pattern around mid January and now the guidance is showing that.  I think the fact the soi is tanking and the MJO is finally getting into cold phases makes this pattern flip more credible.  I never bought into the late December early January period because of that.  It wasn't time yet.  This fits.  But beyond that we aren't in range of discreet specific threats yet.  The day 7 thing is complicated and so its way too soon to look at details.  I agree with what others have said that we usually don't do well on the front end of patterns so expectations should be in check until we get some cold established in the pattern.  Doesn't mean we can't score, 66 flipped and we got several storms right away, and that was a strat warm year so maybe.  But I will be patient as this develops before getting nervous that it won't produce. 

Just making sure you weren't being quiet because you saw something that was bothering you.

I am kind of curious what PSU thinks of the whole situation.  He hasn;t posted much since the whiplash shift to happy time.

I don't even want to think about the emotional state of this board if the next euro run is back to Pacific puke.

What is the JBI (Joe Bastardi Index) at today?  Has he thrown in the towel or is he touting vodka cold?

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Not really a threat for us to track but interesting. Models aren't backing down on this being a nice little event for the NE. Some are improving on the threat. Only 4 days away. At this point it's the little things. 

Verbatim look slike PSU would see something?

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would rather a back loaded over a front loaded. If we started good then had no snow from mid January on it would feel like a let down in the end and leave a bad taste in my mouth. But there is a natural time limit that runs out in march so if it gets good around Feb 1 and runs till march there isn't any expectations of more when it's over. 

Kinda like going 10-6 by winning your last 10 games feels better then going 10-6 by starting 10-0 and loosing the last 6.  Maybe I'm just more patient but I would rather end good then start good and end lame. 

For me personally, the time right around Christmas is very important. I HATE warm Christmases.  Of course, being from eastern NC, I am not picky and will tale any cold/snow I can get whenever I can get it.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. 

Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now

We get a heartbreak every time the Euro comes out.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

he kept calling for Vodka cold in 2001-02 winter.....said it was 10 days away.....when it finally came...it was February...of 2003

So we're set for February 2020?

1 minute ago, wdavis5784 said:

Vodka = Russia. Russia = Siberia. Siberia = Cold.

Yeah I figured that but it seemed like there was a specific incident relating to Joe Bastardi that everybody was referencing.

I think the last euro run pushed everybody over the edge.

By the way, what is the "vodka cold" thing in reference to?

15 days in phase 5.  Latest post from donsoutherland.  Note the mention of risk that it sends longer than modeled in phase 6

When I checked this thread at lunch things were looking pretty optimistic.  I came home checked the thread and..

32 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Tell you what I love seeing on the GEFS. Watching the PAC jet taking an extended vacation down in Hawaii.

I think it has earned it, don't you?  It has been busy.

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was doing that in 6 last week. Baby steps 

Someone on here was saying that Phase 7 isn't bad in January.  I can't remember who it was or and they didn't mention what evidence they had to base it on.