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cbmclean

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Posts posted by cbmclean

  1. I know that this may be more of a philosophical question, but has any one read any information about what phenomena drive/modulate the MJO?  I mean, obviously, tropical sun beating down on the ocean is going to drive convection, but I am wondering what makes the convection organize into bands which travel around the world (sometimes).

  2. Somewhat positive-feeling post from Don S. today.  Of course it is focused on NYC area and north.  But general info is relevant for the whole east coast.

     

    3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

    A storm that brought significant snow to parts of central and Upstate New York into northern New England is now moving away. A frigid air mass is plunging into the region.

    With 1.6" snow through 4 am, Boston has moved above season-to-date snowfall futility levels. Before then, Boston had set record low season-to-date snowfall figures from January 13 through January 19.

    Boston01192019.jpg

    The SOI was +5.28 today. Nevertheless, it has been negative for 15 out of the last 20 days. The SOI will likely go negative within 4-7 days.

    The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.210. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.059.

    On January 19, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.425 (RMM). That amplitude was little changed from the January 18-adjusted figure of 1.442.

    Since regular recordkeeping on the MJO began in 1974, there were only three winters when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above in January and measurable snow was reported in Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia. Those cases were: January 1978, 1994, and 2005. All three winters featured much above normal snowfall afterward.

    The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 4 and into and into Phases 5 and 6 over the next 3-6 days. Initially, the MJO's amplitude will likely continue to increase, but it appears unlikely that the kind of high amplitudes that characterized late December into the start of January will develop.

    With the MJO's likely pushing back toward lower amplitudes and/or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas.

    Following this weekend's storm, there is a risk for two additional storms to impact the region: January 24-25 and January 27-29. The former will likely be a rainstorm. The latter storm could be the bigger and potentially snowy one. Details remain uncertain, but the extent of Atlantic blocking will be important.

    The GEFS ensembles continue to show the AO's diving around the January 28 timeframe +/- 1 day much as happened just ahead of the January 2005 blizzard. While a big storm is far from assured, the combination of the MJO's moving into low amplitudes and/or its colder phases, strong to severe blocking rapidly developing, and frigid air lurking in Canada suggests real potential.

    The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City area has continued to increase. That outcome is now somewhat more likely than not despite the very warm start to January.

     

    • Thanks 3
  3. 1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said:

    Yes I'm referring to 10 days or so. Seems to be the best we can do. Also 09-10 was the year of blocking and was a top 5 cold winter. Once the Pac pukes it always seems to last at least 4 weeks. But when it comes to us a fly car fart and the trough is out of here!

    That said it doesn't look torchy. More average very long range. But who knows anymore? As long as its not a huge SER our chances are about the same to score. Hopefully next weekend it won't matter to most how it unfolds.

    Others, like Bob Chill, have also noted that the Pac Puke tends to really be hard to root out.  I know one thing: I am going to watch the MJO like a hawk from now on.  Seems to be a more powerful driver than I realized.

    • Like 1
  4. 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Latest cfs shows the issues out west but quickly shifts the trough back east after day 10. 

    Actually I need to clarify.  My impression was that both the GFS and Euro had an interseasonal product.  I thought the GFS one was called the CFS.  I thought hte Euro one was the one we referred to as "the weeklies".

    Am I wrong?

  5. 10 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

    I won't say I told you so. But I will say I never believed it for a minute. We don't lock in cold patterns on the east coast in winter anymore. I'm guessing that's because of the NAO and its refusal to be anything but positive in winter. We can lock in endless torches but not good patterns. I saw the writing on the wall two nights ago this was coming.

    In my defense, the guidance consensus was very impressive.  My conclusion is you can't trust guidance when it comes to -NAO.  Ever.

    I am not sure if I fully agree that we can't lock-in good patterns.  If you mean for a week or two, last year we (RDU) had an almost 10 day period below 32 F which included some snow, plus another storm two weeks later.  Not sure what you guys experienced in the Upstate.

    On the other hand, if you mean for a month or more, then yes I agree that the pattern stability does seem asymmetric between cold and warm.  We can and do get full three-month long crap-fests, like 2005-6 and 2011-12.  I am not aware of any equivalent three-month long cold period.  Closest I remember is probably the first half of 2009-10.  Which as I am sure you will mention, I think featured extensive -NAO blocking.

  6. Well, I am waving the flag (with regards to a dreamt-of epic pattern).  The advertised +PNA/-NAO (in some cases of epic magnitudes) which was universal across the major guidance has evaporated.  Poof.  Anybody who wants to say "I told you so", the mic is open. 

     

    43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Just a guess but I think the nino may have been doomed from the beginning. If you only look at enso regions it looks ok. But when you pan out and look at the entire Pac it doesn't look good. Especially back in Dec. No typical +PDO and pretty much sprawling + sstas everywhere. Iirc, every nino that did well here had a +pdo. That should have been an early flag. Other than an active southern stream, this nino has not behaved like one at all. There's never even been an aleutian trough of consequence. 

    The neg pna showing up is the final straw for me if it verifies. Nobody saw that coming. Not even a peep. So I'll throw up the white flag and concede that i have no idea where we go from here. Every model and its mom had a neg nao building and also a +pna. Complete uniform agreement. Now that is all changing. Delayed but not denied? Maybe but I no longer trust a single piece of guidance, tweet, or post about what to expect more than 10 days down the line.

    Sometimes long lead stuff fits the collective thoughts and model output. And sometimes weather makes everyone look like they don't know S. This year clearly fits the nobody or weather model knows S about where we go from here. 

    That being said, starting this weekend, it does look nice and cold for a week to 10 days.  After that nobody knows.  There are some ominous rumblings from the MJO.

     

  7. 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    At this point this winter i don't think anyone knows where it's going. I've seen hundreds of intelligently written posts and tweets this year and nothing has gone as expected

    Good point.  I would say that the only thing we really have confidence in right now is it will be cold for the next two weeks on average.  It may snow, it may not.  -NAO, may appear, it may not.  It's a frustrating state to be in for sure.

  8. 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

    Problem is that claim isnt true. You cant come in here and defend someone then claim you will look at the maps "tonight and see". I posted a 384 GFS map earlier where the NAO was CLEARLY negative.

    I wasn't defending him so much as just trying to get to the bottom of the underlying claim (I have a lot invested emotionally in the -NAO; more than is healthy, which is foolish I know).  I missed your previous post. 

  9. 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    It depends what time period and run he was referring too. But that’s irrelevant.  Some of what he says is accurate. Some is grossly exaggerated. And some is just flat out bullsh!t. But the problem is he isn’t reliable AND he only shows up to say negative things that he knows will annoy people. His posts just clutter up the threads because he has no cred since he would say it looks bad no matter what it actually looks like. Besides people don’t mind hearing bad news as much from a “friend” who gives both good and bad news. No one wants it from the jacka$$ who only shows up when your down to kick dirt in your face.  We have plenty of qualified “experts” in our forum who can be trusted to share the bad news. We don’t need his crap. 

    Your points are reasonable.  Based on the fact that he (maybe sexist but for some reason I am assuming that he is male) is still posting here after the feedback that he has received I suspect that he is either

    1. A troll.

    2. Someone who honestly believes what he is posting and is stubbornly going to keep posting because he feels he is a prophet in the wilderness.

    3. Someone who honestly believes in what he is posting and is mostly oblivious to the near universal scorn (could be possible if, for example his mental perception is different than the average person i.e. asperger's etc).

    If he is a troll, then the constant shutdowns are worse than pointless, because they feed on negativity and cherish knowing that they are getting under your skin.

    If he feels he is a "prophet" then the scorn probably just feeds his feeling of righteousness.

    If he is a #3, then he probably isn't even noticing it.

    To make a long story short: probably best to just ignore instead of negative feedback.

     

    • Like 1
  10. 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    He/she/it is not here in good faith. Post history is 100% antagonistic. Whether it's right or wrong is irrelevent. 

    Well, you know that I am here in good faith.  Just looped through the 12 EPS/GEFS/GEPS all seem to have moderate + anomalies over Greenland at the ends of their respective runs.  Not the really stout block we have been looking for for so long.

    On the plus side, did note that EPS had cold 850 MB temps to the end of its run, from Ellesmere Island to the Yucatan.

  11. 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    We wish you would disappear 

    Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles).

    Is he correct or not?  If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see.  I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct.

    • Like 2
  12. 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

    ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago. 

    Is this just the GEFS or us the EPS showing it also?

  13. 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

    Memorize the plots and read everything in this link. Covers all the important teleconnections we talk about daily. Essential knowledge

    https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao

    Note from the link that Bob provided, it is not only the magnitude of the NAO which is important, but also the location.  East-based due little to no good for Eastern NA.  In the GFS plot above you can see the + anomalies centered just west of Greenland, in the Davis Strait and Baffin Bay.  A Davis Strait block is apparently highly desirable.

    Of course it is a 336 hour op, so I simply scoff in its general direction.

    • Thanks 1
  14. 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    I just don't understand on...90% of their winters, a fly sneezes and they get 2 feet just like that. I just don't understand how they can be as manic (or more) manic than we are down here. Some of them wouldn't last a winter in the Mid-atlantic!

    Human nature.  You get used to what you have gotten used too.  If you don't have it, you notice it.  For example, 100 years ago, many of our ancestors lived completely without electricity.  If we lost electricity for two weeks, we would be resulting to cannibalism.

  15. 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Southern New England was expecting a pretty good snow and it turned into a messy mix. They have been having a truly awful winter for their climo too. 

    I hate that for them.  I like everybody to get their snow fix.  I was kind of under the impression that late late November and early December was pretty cold up there.  I was in the throes of a really tough gradate course so I wasn't able to pay too much attention.

  16. 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    They had their own meltdown today over the snow bust up here. 

    I've been focused so much on the pattern change that I have kind of lost track of actual weather happening.  Did they have a snow bust up there?  I thought the storm wasn't hitting them until tomorrow.

  17. 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Whenever I post a long range op panel to scare people it's a straight troll. 100% of the time. Looks like all the other regional subs read this thread overnight too. Lol. We had a good week of winter. It was a nice run. Only a week or so away and we can start discussing next winter. 

    Wild emotional swings aside, I think it is completely rational to be concerned that the advertised good H5 look might disappear at any second, never to be seen again.  Or else be eternally delayed.

    As of last night, my perception was that the good look was common across all the guidance (not talking about long-range ops) to varying degrees and was moving forward in time quite nicely.  Is that still accurate?

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