cbmclean

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

2012 had one but the AK vortex relentlessly cooked north america.

Back during the pac puke, I mentioned 2012 in comparison to this year, but you said that the mechanisms were nothing at all alike.  Can you explain that?  I thought that in both cases a really strong Pacific jet flooded the conus with mild air.  Do you just mean that the cause of the strong pacific jet was different in the two years?

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We've had a few nice ones in the last few years. March 18 and Jan 16 were real -nao's. March 13 as well. 2012 had one but the AK vortex relentlessly cooked north america. The last stable one during met winter was 2010-11. 

Keep in mind the majority of our snow events do not have a -nao. The -AO correlates with somewhere around 80% of snow events over 4". The -NAO correlates with our really big storms which happen infrequently. 

Yes, I keep forgetting about Jan 16.  Didn't lead to anything significant down here, so it doesn't stick in my mind.  Also, I think I was still mentally stunned by the previous 80 F Christmas.

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm starting to not believe we can even have a neg-NAO anymore, smh What has it been now, 9 years???

That's the funny thing.  We had a giant -NAO less then 10 months ago.  Brought some of you guys some significant March snow.  Even snowed a bit down in my neck of the woods which is impressive. Other early springs lately have had similar, though less extreme events.

But for some reason we can't seem to get it in Met winter.  Some have pondered whether AGW is the cause.  Maybe so.  But I do not understand what about AGW that would prevent -NAO in Dec - Feb, but not in March or April.

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Is this like 4 Ninas in a row then?

If it was really acting like a Nina, we wouldn't have had a juicy STJ dousing us with rain for several months (although it has moderated of late). 

It's not acting like a weak Nino though, which is what had a lot of folks with high hopes.  There are multiple theories floating around as to why.

As I mentioned on the MA thread, I am waving the flag for this winter.  I don't see any reason to believe that there will be any significantly good period for the Carolinas.  I am completely rejecting discounting the weeklies/CFS and their continued "trust me, this time it can't go wrong" NAO blocking, and the Pacific base state just seems to not be right.

I hope I am proven wrong.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

if the nao goes negative you have just as much chance at one fluke storm as anywhere else. 

Perhaps, but I honestly believe that it is unlikely to happen, at least in time for my forum.  I am not trying to convince anyone or to turn into the southern version of you know who.  And I would love to be proven completely and utterly wrong.

In the meantime, I will continue to read and learn.

I will be rooting for you guys.  I am waving the flag for me personally.  By that I mean that think that the goose is cooked for the SE for the rest of Met winter.  This is not just blind Debbism.  I am basing this off of the sum of you guys' discussions of the LR ensembles, the stubborn MJO, and also general interdecadal trends.

Things are obviously not quite as dire for your guys.  Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the epic -NAO finally blossom in March when you guys can still benefit (well those of you who don't hate March snow).

I have to admit to pretty severe disappointment.  It might not be technically correct to say that this winter had promise, since we are now seeing warning signs that have become apparent in retrospect, but it had "promise of promise" if you know what I mean.  My hopes were up anyway.  And around 1/9-10 when the pac puke unexpectedly relaxed and everything looked so darn good in the long range, I really got reeled in.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

I'll go down with the ship saying this but I still believe the pac and western trough are overdone to the bad side or maybe even wrong alltogether. I expect things to look much better by the time the arctic front comes through. It feels more like we hit a speed bump in early feb at the worst. Not saying snow will come easy. I just don't think we'll need to use the word disaster in real time anytime soon.

What is it that makes you feel this way?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve read some Mets saying the amplified pac this year is causing guidance to struggle. On top of that I’ve noticed that some years the guidance seems to simply struggle to correctly account for a major pattern driver.  I’ve seen it in the past where the guidance will repeatedly want to adjust the pattern to what it would look like without that factor it’s missing. I’ve seen it work in our favor. In 2014 guidance continually looked like crap at range as it tried to revert to a pattern more typical of the enso and global factors but it seemed to be missing the effect of that N Pac warm pool. It did that all winter.  There was another year when it kept teasing blocking that never came. I remember reading that guidance was over estimating a favorable Atlantic sst for an NAO ridge but underestimating the interference from an enhanced pac jet. That’s why in a Nina we typically don’t get much blocking until March when shorter wavelengths mute the destructive interference of the pac jet. But either way when this happens it seems to keep happening all season. This year my guess is it’s happening with the mjo. The guidance has been late to see the impacts of every major phase change in the tropical forcing all year. 

Long range is really hard because you have to make predictions based on predictions or assumptions. What will the tropical forcing be. Qbo. Pdo. Enso. Get some wrong and it all goes to crap. Or sometimes subtle things combine to throw it off anyways. Like you say weather just weathers. 

Regarding your excellent point on the pdo...I think in addition to mistaking the enso for a legit nino when in fact it’s behaving like a neutral or even a Nina at times...my biggest other error was weighting the pdo. I noticed the pdo in the fall. But several of the best analogs at that time like 1978, 1969, 1966, 1964, and 1958 all started with a -pdo in fall through December. 78 flipped in January. The others stayed negative. And they all turned out cold and snow. (69 was only average but it was kind of a bad fluke imo). So I sort of tossed it as a negative factor. But looking back now that was a big mistake. The pdo seems to be a much better predictor of snowfall now than it was in the past. Notice all those years are pre 1980. There were other -pdo  non nino years that were snowy also like 1979. It was common back then. But not anymore. The last several decades a good snow year with a -pdo is just extinct. I’ve read some arguments that using analogs from before ~1980 is a bad idea as they just aren’t very valid anymore. I don’t want to start a climate debate so I’ll just leave that there. 

It could be the NAO. Blocking was more common back then and so overcoming a hostile pdo was more likely. With the predominance of a +NAO lately winning without pdo help is more challenging. It also seems lately that when we do get mid winter blocking it goes with a pos pdo. Either way I think I messed up that factor when weighting things this year. 

I have asked myself a question, have not yet come up with a good answer, I will ask you guys:

Assume, just for the sake of a thought experiment, that NWP was able to tell you exactly what kind of winter you will get, down to the number and general intensity of every storm, rain or snow.  If on Dec 1 you were able to see with 100% confidence that your winter was going to be a fail, would it make you sad because you knew what was coming, or would it be a relief since you didn't have the anxiety of not knowing?   

5 hours ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

 

Somebody please tell Cold Rain to lower the dang snow shields.

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not buying into anything one way or another. Just saying all these experts who typically don’t hype are saying “it’s coming” and I can certainly see how it could be but I also can see how this has some of the same characteristics of the last two aborted attempts to get it right in the pac. So I guess my only point is they seem way more confident than I feel. But maybe that’s why they are experts and I’m just a snow weenie hobbyist. I’m also a dick so there is that. 

PSU, could you pass along any info on what the experts you mention are specifically saying?

It's taking every bit of rationality I can muster up to keep from making pointless Debbie downer posts like "we know it's not going to happen".  If I was an actual MA guy, I think I would be close to the reaping stage.

14 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Ji is old hat in the MA.  It's that other poster from another forum that brings the troll

I think they banned that guy.  I am not sure if that was a good idea or not, as it seemed to draw the whole forum together in a show of unity in how much they hated him.

Just now, NCSNOW said:

You follow your gut and stay away from JI and youll be alright.

It was truly hilarious recently when things looked really dark, Ji was breaking out the optimism.  PSUHoffman christened him the "Merchant of Hope".

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice NA look on that panel. Indication of a trough near 50-50 with the +heights displaced off of the maritimes, and a ridge pushing into Baffin Bay.

It has to work out sometime!!

8 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Well, yeah THAT is extreme! I wish you well!

I appreciate it.

Not sure how it could be done, but I dream of one day visiting Vostok, Antarctica in winter.  Talk about cold and dry.

5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Are you in a place in your life to move? I'd suggest CO or WY or MT if you really love and are moved that much by the cold. I am lucky in that my son moved to Summit county CO, beautiful and cold and white there A LOT! I go every chance I get now, was there 5 times last year.

Not really.  As much as I love cold, I also love my home state very much.  All my family is here and that is also very important to me.  My wife dislikes serious cold as well.  I definitely plan to take some cold weather vacations when the kids are older.  Not sure how I will convince the wife though.

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

When I’ve done pure snow chases it’s hekped more. I was on a ski trip with my 4 year old son and not everything revolved around the snow.  I missed most of it overnight and had to drive in it and it just wasn’t the same. I had a great time but it wasn’t really about the snow. It was family time with my son. 

I love fishing with my son but have no idea what I’m doing. 

Just my own personal story.  My nature is an intensely emotional one.  I feel highs and lows very strongly.  I love cold and I HATE winter warmth.  Although I love snow, growing up int he NC coastal plain snow was too rare to really base my emotions on.

When I say I obsess over the weather, I am being literal; I am have battled with OCD almost all of my life, and when the pattern sucks, it genuinely fills my thoughts and gets me very down.  Genuine winter torches leave me morose and irritable (on the flip side, when we were in epic deep freeze last January my wife noted that I was in a really good mood).

I absolutely, positively, really really really do not want to start an AGW debate here, but for the purpose of this post just know that I personally believe it to be scientific fact.  Given this imagine the mental distress I feel as year after year I believe that I feel the very existence of a meaningful winter slowly dying bit by bit.  And it's not just winter IMBY that weighs on me.  I love the idea of cold and ice/snow wherever it is.  I spend hours reading about and just thinking about the beautiful sound of the cold wind blowing across the desolate tundra or antarctic plateau.  The thought of those places slowly thawing feels me with real pain.

I know this may sound melodramatic and ridiculous, but you can't really help what you love.  In any event I come to this board to share my feelings with those who at least have some idea what I am talking about.  No one else in my life really understands: not my parents or my brother or wife etc.   

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I don’t actually care about this panel. I think it has to be the result of extreme divergence within the spread and the eps probably has the right idea but my god you have to laugh at this panel. It’s as if the snow gods decided to troll us and just threw up all over our whole 1/4 of the planet. 

What's not to like?  Clearly a - NAO.  Smells like victory

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's it Chuck.. ride the CAPE Train!

Until it flies off the rails.

It seems like he is 180° out of phase wit the rest of the board.

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I’m a little confused...the FV3, GFS, and Euro basically look the same at 168 with a very good looking pattern and everyone is doom and gloom?

When PSU is spooked, I am spooked.

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That run is no more reliable than a run with epic blocking showing up at 384 hrs...lol Honestly I don't know why some of you bother sharing the absolute worse case scenario that pops up on the outskirts of fantasy land...do we like torturing ourselves?

I understand this.  I just was sharing a quip with the board.  This board is like my support group. 

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol stick to “maybe it’s wrong”. No way to turn this into anything other than a disaster 

That looks like the dreaded PAC Puke.  Is there no end to the dreams it can crush?

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with everything you just said which is why I said I still have hope and I’m not saying it’s over. But “maybe guidance is wrong” isn’t exactly where you want to be and it’s a world away from where we were a week ago.   

For those of us who are just learning, how did we get to here, in terms of how the pattern as modeled going from epic to bleh.

Edit:Whoops this should be in the pattern thread.

4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Almost as good as "what drives the NAO"?  Million dollar questions

Well, some natural phenomena have straight forward explanations, like, "why is the antarctic colder than the arctic?" and stuff like that.  Others not so much.  Still doesn't hurt to ask.